Profile

Cover photo
Kenneth Duda
Works at Arista Networks, Inc.
Attended Stanford University
Lives in Menlo Park, CA
189 followers|171,561 views
AboutPostsPhotosYouTube+1'sReviews

Stream

 
John Oliver's latest fantastic combination of comedy and commentary.
11
1
Abraham McAllister's profile photoCathy Lachapelle's profile photo

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
Smartest fixed-income investment analysis I've seen anywhere.  Here is the key paragraph:
===========================
 I think we are looking at a bifurcated fixed income market, where bonds earn very low returns, and homes earn 5% or more, plus capital gains.  I think the Fed Funds rate could be anywhere from 0% to 2% in this context without affecting monetary expansion that much, one way or the other.  Because, the industrial economy is a high rate economy right now, but there is a surplus of capital, because there are too many frictions preventing it from getting into real estate quickly enough.  But, when real estate can expand - probably early to mid 2016 - look out.  Natural interest rates will be flying - both real and nominal.
===============================
Since the mortgage credit market has been stagnant since 2007, changes in US household equity levels have been almost purely a product of home market values.  Here is a chart comparing home prices and equity.  QE3 facilitated...
2
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
This is interesting only to people who really think about aggregate economic numbers, but if you're one of them --- this post points out a common fallacy of dividing a number like total income by a deflator like the CPI, which is apples and oranges.  The only deflator that makes sense for GDP is the GDP deflator.  Sounds obvious once you say it, but Sumner catches Krugman making the error and reaching a seriously wrong conclusion.  Median real incomes (when properly deflated) have been rising, not falling, over the last 20 years.  Which really matters to the income inequality debate.
1
Kenneth Duda's profile photoJan-Willem Maessen's profile photo
3 comments
 
This is why I wondered if the shift away from pensions is influential.  Remember that this shifts inflation risk to a larger segment of the population and away from the rentier class.
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

commented on a video on YouTube.
Shared publicly  - 
 
This is pretty funny, if you're following the Greek drama.
 ·  Translate
23
Michael Andresen's profile photoolaPRASINAgiatre's profile photokssgpv's profile photoLeonAmarantos's profile photo
7 comments
 
+kssgpv "Sarcastic" is a word of Greek origin as well...

Also Rap comes from the Greek Rapsody (Ραψωδία)...
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
The Fed made a colossal blunder in failing to expand the money supply in September 2008, two days after Lehman failed.  This transcript is unbelievable.  Here is a sample:

===============================
MR. DUDLEY. “The Committee will carefully evaluate economic and financial market developments.” That means you are on the case.

CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, it is not an analytical thing we are doing. We are just watching closely.

MR. WARSH. Keenly? Carefully?

MR. LACKER. Mr. Chairman?

CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Yes. President Lacker.

MR. LACKER. Including “closely,” what does that imply about the opposite? I mean,
are we going to be able to take that out?

MR. WARSH. Well, we have done things like “in a timely manner” and other kinds of
phraseology.

MR. LACKER. Yes, but this is an adjective.

CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. No, it’s an adverb.

MR. LACKER. There goes my credibility. [Laughter] 
===============================

Damn straight.  Unfortunately, Lacker's grasp of monetary economics is even worse than his grasp of grammar.  But, we can be glad that Bernanke was successful in helping him with the latter, if not the former.
4
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
I have always loved the idea of replacing income taxes with a graduated consumption tax.  Here's a good case for the idea.
1
David Jao's profile photoGreg Rogalski's profile photoKenneth Duda's profile photo
5 comments
 
One more comment on monetary impotence at the ZLB.  Krugman is more careful than I give him credit for.  He says that "conventional" monetary policy is impotent at the ZLB, but maybe "extraordinary" monetary policy could have some effect.  By "conventional", he means targeting inflation by adjusting the Fed Funds rate.  But that's the whole problem.  The fed has the wrong target, and is using the wrong instrument.  The fed should be targeting the level of NGDP, to keep NGDP level on a stable path, increasing by 4.5% or 5% per year, and the Fed should adjust the size of the monetary base to hit the target, using a prediction market to decide how large the monetary base needs to be, and commit to do "whatever it takes" to hit the target, and if it somehow misses one year, it will keep its next target unchanged, i.e., 5% higher than the prior target.  There is no such thing as the "zero lower bound" with this policy.  If interest rates hit zero, so what, the Fed will keep expanding (or contracting) the money supply as much as needed for the prediction markets to be satisfied that the economy will hit the Fed's NGDP target.
Add a comment...
Have him in circles
189 people
Bhagatram Janarthanan's profile photo
Asang Dani's profile photo
Amrit Kumar's profile photo
Arunprakash Sekar's profile photo
Pawan Hulyalkar's profile photo
Gagan Arneja's profile photo
Jean Christophe Azar's profile photo
Laurie Kahn's profile photo
Wyatt Sullivan's profile photo

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
Some good detail on Netflix's content distribution architecture.  (I'm proud our 7500 switch is a part of it.)
9
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
You can always count on Vox for the smartest analysis.  The Obamacare case is truly weird.
1
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
Here, David Beckworth points out that the Eurozone crisis does not fit the too-much-debt narrative either, and in fact, bad monetary policy is the primary cause of a shocking amount of needless suffering.
Imagine the ECB had not raised its interest rate target in 2008 and 2011, but had lowered it. Also imagine the ECB began its open-ended QE program back in 2009. Would there now be a brighter future for the Eurozone? If the an...
3
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
What's the real story of the 2008 crisis and the following depression?  Hint: it's not greedy bankers, loose regulators, and irresponsible borrowers.  Sorry.
As far as I can tell, just about everyone agrees on the following series of events: 1) House prices driven up by predatory lenders, or public pressure to expand home ownership, or both, pushed low income households in homes t...
1
Abraham McAllister's profile photoKenneth Duda's profile photo
24 comments
 
Yes, thank you.
Add a comment...

Kenneth Duda

Shared publicly  - 
 
Fed vs ECB: comparison of the last seven years of policy.  Bottom line: monetary accommodation is critical in a demand depression.  The US has done better primarily because we've had more accommodation from the Fed.  When will Europe wake up?
3
Add a comment...
 
Hi everyone, I created a program at the Mercatus Center to work on improving monetary policy in the United States.  Scott Sumner will be a fantastic director. Here is an announcement.

    -Ken
I have spent the past 6 years trying to do two jobs at once, my teaching job at Bentley and lots of blogging/writing/speaking on monetary reform. I am pleased to announce that from now on I'll be able to focus on monetary policy. Through a very generous donation of Kenneth Duda (a Silicon Valley ...
11
3
Kenneth Duda's profile photoMatteo Marini's profile photoEric Crampton's profile photoPhilip Crawford's profile photo
14 comments
 
Hi Kevin, under NGDP level targeting, the Federal Reserve would commit to a level path for NGDP years in advance.  They would then use an NGDP prediction market to guide OMO's.  They would not need the piles of complex models they use today to try to forecast inflation and employment, because that activity would be effectively outsourced to the prediction market.  If they create(/destroy) money by pegging the price of NGDP futures in the prediction market, they don't even need a model to size OMO's.  There are complexities here, but the bottom line is it would be a huge increase in transparency compared with today, when we can't even figure out if the Fed has a 2% inflation target (as they claim) or a 2% inflation ceiling (as their actions imply; see http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2014/12/tinkering-on-margins.html), let alone how they plan to hit that target.
Add a comment...
People
Have him in circles
189 people
Bhagatram Janarthanan's profile photo
Asang Dani's profile photo
Amrit Kumar's profile photo
Arunprakash Sekar's profile photo
Pawan Hulyalkar's profile photo
Gagan Arneja's profile photo
Jean Christophe Azar's profile photo
Laurie Kahn's profile photo
Wyatt Sullivan's profile photo
Work
Occupation
Software Engineering
Employment
  • Arista Networks, Inc.
    CTO, SVP Software, 2004 - present
  • There, Inc.
    CTO, 1999 - 2004
  • Cisco Systems, Inc.
    Software Engineer, 1995 - 1999
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Menlo Park, CA
Previously
Cambridge, MA
Contact Information
Home
Email
Work
Email
Story
Tagline
Software guy
Introduction
I love programming, especially systems programming of the Linux/C++/kernel/networking flavor.  I run the software team at Arista Networks.  I am deeply concerned about the state of the US economy and what we should be doing to improve things.  I'm married to Jennifer Duda and have two kids, Molly and Sophie.

Education
  • Stanford University
    Ph.D., Computer Science, 1993 - 2001
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    BS, MS, Computer ScienceComputer Science, 1988 - 1993
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Links
Other profiles
Kenneth Duda's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
The road to a housing recovery
idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com

Since the mortgage credit market has been stagnant since 2007, changes in US household equity levels have been almost purely a product of ho

The bizarre way economists calculate real income | EconLog | Library of ...
econlog.econlib.org

Over the years I've argued that economists are horribly confused about the concept of

The Eurozone Counterfactual
macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Imagine the ECB had not raised its interest rate target in 2008 and 2011, but had lowered it. Also imagine the ECB began its open-ended QE p

Housing Tax Policy, A Series: Part 8 - The crisis didn't happen the way ...
idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com

As far as I can tell, just about everyone agrees on the following series of events: 1) House prices driven up by predatory lenders, or publi

TheMoneyIllusion » My new career
www.themoneyillusion.com

I have spent the past 6 years trying to do two jobs at once, my teaching job at Bentley and lots of blogging/writing/speaking on monetary re

What Do John Cochrane, Paul Krugman, and Scott Sumner Have in Common?
macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

What do John Cochrane, Paul Krugman, and Scott Sumner have in common? A lot more than you think. It would be easy to conclude otherwise base

Tribal Reality and Extant Reality
noahpinionblog.blogspot.com

(This is adapted from a rather silly speech I like to give to my finance classes when the slide projector breaks. Warning: includes blatant

Content economics, part 5: news
blogs.reuters.com

The conception of what counts as news is going to get broader. It will include living articles of the kind that Klein is talking about; it w

Best of Interop 2013 Winners Announced - Network Computing
www.networkcomputing.com

The Best of Interop award recognizes innovation in eight tech categories, including networking, cloud, security, mobility and more. Winners

Subway Surfers
market.android.com

DASH as fast as you can! DODGE the oncoming trains! Help Jake, Tricky & Fresh escape from the grumpy Inspector and his dog. ★ Grind trains w

When does fiscal stimulus work?
www.economist.com

RECOVERIES around the world are looking less certain than they did a few months ago, and this has prompted a new round of calls for addition

Mein Unbehagen mit Quasi-Monetarismus / My Discomfort with Quasi-Monetarism
kantooseconomics.com

English Ein Gastbeitrag von Henry Kaspar Regelmäßigen Lesern dieses Blogs wird der Begriff "Quasi-Monetaristen" ein Begriff sein: eine

Searching for a pot of gold
www.economist.com

Readers suggest some alternative economic indicators  A FEW weeks ago The Economist invited readers who enjoy our Big Mac index to invent o

Dennis Ritchie: The Shoulders Steve Jobs Stood On | Wired Enterprise | W...
www.wired.com

The tributes to Dennis Ritchie won’t match the river of praise that spilled out over the web after the death of Steve Jobs. But they should.

Coding Relic: NVGRE Musings
codingrelic.geekhold.com

NVGRE Musings. Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to Facebook. It is an interesting time to be involved in datacenter networking. Ther

Martin Wolf: Please, Please, Please, Please Listen to the Bond Market
delong.typepad.com

I cannot be the only person who fears that the situation we are in is causing Martin Wolf's mind to crack. I hope the *Financial Times*

What To Do About Jobs?
delong.typepad.com

My talk from August 31, 2011: It is hard to talk about macro right now. It is hard, in large part, because virtually all of us macroeconomis

G+me: collapse the Google+ stream into a real-time dashboard - huy'z
huyz.us

G+me: collapse the Google+ stream into a real-time dashboard. G+me is a Google Chrome browser extension that enhances the Google+ web app to

The food is tasty, the people are nice, and the prices are very reasonable. There's a small outdoor dining patio (no indoor dining area). We had the cheese ravioli with meat sauce, very good.
Public - a year ago
reviewed a year ago
Our whole family loves this school. If your top priority for your child is memorizing multiplication tables at the youngest possible age while avoiding any exposure to dirt, this may not be the school for you. But if want your child to learn about citizenship, being part of a community, taking responsibility and making good choices, all while developing a life-long love of learning, then you've come to the right place. Maybe the shortest convincing testimonial comes from a fellow parent, a teacher at a local high school, who observed that his most engaged, most dynamic, most with-it students came disproportionately from Peninsula School... so that's where he sends his daughter.
• • •
Public - a year ago
reviewed a year ago
It's a no-hassle experience for sure. Sam Ebrahimi (salesman) drove me home and then back to the dealership, making things easier. Pricing seemed fair and consistent with the modest amount of Internet data I scraped up.
Public - 4 years ago
reviewed 4 years ago
4 reviews
Map
Map
Map
Best data center networking gear on the planet. :-)
Public - 4 years ago
reviewed 4 years ago