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Kenneth Duda
Works at Arista Networks, Inc.
Attended Stanford University
Lives in Menlo Park, CA
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Kenneth Duda

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Funny/insightful.
 
Once more, cracked.com knocks it out of the park. They write really amazing articles on a lot of things.

If you've ever wondered why people are "SJWs", and why people who care about social justice are always picking on white, hetero males even though quite a few of them don't have easy lives either, this would be a good article to read.

Helping to rectify that situation is one of the many, many things you're tasked with due to having been born in a fairly high place in the world. It's not "fair," but that's a meaningless word when referencing things you have no control over. You didn't ask to be born half-way up a mountain, but you were, and I need you to look down and realize that mountain is really a pile of bones.
What I am finding as time goes on is that we are all secretly Billy Joel.
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Cathy, you might want to check this out.  Kevin is a very smart finance guy, who is by no means arguing positions to line his pockets.  His point is that out attempts to "tame" the markets can sometimes expose very severe disorder, particularly in housing.  He also touches on education.  I certainly don't expect you to agree with him, but I think there is a lot of wisdom in the high-level notion that we should be skeptical of people who think they know better than the markets, a sin committed on both the left and the right.  For example, Alan Greenspan wrote in an op-ed that it was regrettable that the markets were failing to punish us for running high deficits.  Yes, the markets are smarter than Greenspan too.  http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/06/alan-greenspan-it-is-very-regrettable-that-my-model-of-the-world-is-wrong--and-the-world-needs-to-shape-up.html
JOLTS data continues to look strong.  Growth in the major categories continues to be strong (the slopes of the weighted moving averages), and the rates are basically at full employment levels.  Because a labor force that skew...
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> would there be another human system in there to keep an eye on it as we
> work out the kinks in the new system?

Oh of course, any transition to market monetarism would happen under the oversight of the existing federal reserve structure. It would happen in steps: get a prediction market going; actually use the prediction market for something; make public comments on what we're learning from the prediction market; comment on trend NGDP growth; announce a range of "desirable" levels of NGDP; etc.  Getting to full market monetarism could take 30 years, like it took us to get off the gold standard (1937 to 1971).

> I think I'm particularly sore about economists in general because I've
> heard so many snarky comments about how they do "real" science

Okay, that's just funny, because the economists are always complaining about how the physicists make snarky comments about how physics is a real science and economics is not because if the inability to perform a controlled experiment.

Though here's kind of a funny post by Noah Smith (a great economist) who wonders why people take economists as seriously as they do:

http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/05/economists-as-all-purpose-sages-case-of.html

and another funny one by my favorite monetary economist (the leader of market monetarism) complaining how while economists are frequently called on to explain things that they don't really understand, like recessions, they aren't called on enough to explain things they do understand, like water shortages in California:

http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29171

Great line: "That makes about as much sense as the Times asking a Christian fundamentalist preacher whether dinosaurs were warm-blooded."

LOL

    -Ken
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John Oliver, awesome as always.  Standardized tests, oy.
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I thought he did a pretty decent job explaining it... and it's not at all easy to explain.
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A very good explanation of what is right and what is wrong with monetary policy.
Ben Bernanke has a good post on the Taylor Rule. Let's start at the end, where he argues in favor of decision-making by the FOMC, rather than a rigid mechanical policy rule: Monetary policy should be systematic, not automatic. The...
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One thing I'd love to see more of is discussion of the ethics of monetary policy. I'll post separately, since it's tangential to these articles.
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The truth behind California's water issue: it's economics and politics.
The New York Times does not believe in creationism. They believe in evolution. They look down their noses at people who do believe in creationism. But when it comes to the social sciences, the Times believes in creationism, that is, they believe in theories that appeal to kindergarden-level ...
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It seems like the Times is conflating the Bay Area's serious NIMBY / lack of housing density problems with the water crisis that's driven primarily by the sparsely settled central valley.
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John Oliver's latest fantastic combination of comedy and commentary.
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Kenneth Duda

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For those interested in monetary economics, this is a very important post.  Separating out changes in the level (of economic activity, of NGDP, CPI) from growth rates (NGDP growth, inflation rate or change in CPI) helps resolve one of the main disagreements in monetary economics.
I've done recent posts on Neo-Fisherism, and the problem of identifying the stance of monetary policy. I've also pointed out that if we can't identify the stance of monetary policy, we can't identify monetary shocks. This is going to be a highly ambitious post that tries to bring together ...
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JP Koning wrote a really great explanation of how every investment includes a consumption component: liquidity.  You pay for liquidity.  Once you understand that, then you can understand how the US is a net exporter of liquidity, yet this export is not captured in our current account.  That explains how we can sustain a current account deficit year after year after year, which had always previously been a mystery to me.
Measuring liquidity is a pain in the ass. The value of a good, say an apple, is easy to calculate; just look at the market price for apples. Unfortunately, doing the same for liquidity is much more difficult because liquidity...
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> Would the mortgage-backed securities invented by banks that caused such
> problems in any sense fall under this sort of ignored "trade" type, that
> you're talking about?

Yes but this is really true of all asset types.  

> So that there's significant liquidity in such an asset, that isn't
> "counted" in the deficit at issue? It sounds like there is always some
> component to such assets that is counted, but that the liquidity aspect
> is not counted, is that right?


No, none of it is counted in the current account.  When a foreigner buys a bond (or an MBS or whatever), that transaction shows up in the capital account, not the current account.  The liquidity the foreigner consumes over the lifetime of the bond doesn't show up anywhere.  Like JP said, it's really hard to measure, so it's not clear how to fix this, but it solves what (for me) was a deep conceptual problem --- how can it be that we run a current account deficit year after year after year, and yet the balance of assets (US assets held by foreigners minus foreign assets held by US residents) is basically equal?  How can that be?  Surely the foreigners have to do something with all those dollars we are using to buy sweaters and cell phones!  Yes, they use them to buy bonds, but we buy foreign assets too, and it's roughly in balance.  The answer is, those dollars come right back to us indirectly, in the form of a yield differential: our foreign investments yield more than their investments in US securities, because they're willing to "pay" (accept lower returns) for liquidity.  

Sorry, this is all a pretty minor point, and probably obvious to any sophisticated international economist, but for me, it clears up a real mystery.

     -Ken
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Ever wondered how the US can import more than it exports year after year after year?  Our cumulative trade deficits total more than $10 trillion!  How can this continue?

This paper explains it.  The answer is: national income accounting is tricky and easy to misunderstand.  It does not incorporate the value of US-resident-owned assets in foreign countries, or incorporate the income streams from those assets in any helpful way.  For example, if a US company builds a theme park in Japan, the asset is valued at book value (rather than based on earnings), and the income stream being paid to the US owners doesn't count as "exports".  The very concept of "cumulative trade deficit" appears totally useless, and even the concept of a one-year trade deficit is just an indicator, and does not reflect any shift in wealth.
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Yes, that blog post hits on the exact issue and the difficulty of answering the question: how much does the US earn from acting as the primary liquidity provider to the world?
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Okay, it's just funny when Paul Krugman says, "so we’re all monsters, however nice we may seem in person."  
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No, not Krugman. He's great--reading some of the old stuff on his web site is fascinating, like watching those early 1990s AT&T commercials that basically predicted all the technology that's happened since.

I was referring to some CS professors I have encountered, who seem to hop from one divinely revealed truth to another (not naming names!). Of course they typically do admit they changed their mind--it only seems arbitrary when they fail to explain their reasoning with small enough words for mortals like me. Totally different situation from economists whose tribal affiliations trump intellectual honesty.
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When you understand why all seven of these "common sense" ideas are wrong, you'll understand more about money than most people --- and you'll cringe (as I do) every time you hear "news" on fiscal or monetary issues, as the left and right manage to both be wrong about nearly everything.
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But hey, even famed economist/adult contemporary singer Michael Bolton gets the role of the IRS completely wrong.
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Some good detail on Netflix's content distribution architecture.  (I'm proud our 7500 switch is a part of it.)
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Work
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Software Engineering
Employment
  • Arista Networks, Inc.
    CTO, SVP Software, 2004 - present
  • There, Inc.
    CTO, 1999 - 2004
  • Cisco Systems, Inc.
    Software Engineer, 1995 - 1999
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Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Menlo Park, CA
Previously
Cambridge, MA
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Introduction
I love programming, especially systems programming of the Linux/C++/kernel/networking flavor.  I run the software team at Arista Networks.  I am deeply concerned about the state of the US economy and what we should be doing to improve monetary policy.  I'm married to Jennifer Duda and have two kids, Molly and Sophie.

Contact me at kjd@duda.org.


Education
  • Stanford University
    Ph.D., Computer Science, 1993 - 2001
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    BS, MS, Computer ScienceComputer Science, 1988 - 1993
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Other profiles
Kenneth Duda's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
Full steam ahead on 3 cylinders
idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com

JOLTS data continues to look strong. Growth in the major categories continues to be strong (the slopes of the weighted moving averages), and

No Eureka moment when it comes to measuring liquidity
jpkoning.blogspot.com

Measuring liquidity is a pain in the ass. The value of a good, say an apple, is easy to calculate; just look at the market price for apples.

Robots, committees, or markets? | EconLog | Library of Economics and Lib...
econlog.econlib.org

Ben Bernanke has a good post on the Taylor Rule. Let's start at the end, where he argues in favor of decision-making by the FOMC, rather tha

The road to a housing recovery
idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com

Since the mortgage credit market has been stagnant since 2007, changes in US household equity levels have been almost purely a product of ho

The bizarre way economists calculate real income | EconLog | Library of ...
econlog.econlib.org

Over the years I've argued that economists are horribly confused about the concept of

The Eurozone Counterfactual
macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Imagine the ECB had not raised its interest rate target in 2008 and 2011, but had lowered it. Also imagine the ECB began its open-ended QE p

Housing Tax Policy, A Series: Part 8 - The crisis didn't happen the way ...
idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com

As far as I can tell, just about everyone agrees on the following series of events: 1) House prices driven up by predatory lenders, or publi

TheMoneyIllusion » My new career
www.themoneyillusion.com

I have spent the past 6 years trying to do two jobs at once, my teaching job at Bentley and lots of blogging/writing/speaking on monetary re

What Do John Cochrane, Paul Krugman, and Scott Sumner Have in Common?
macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

What do John Cochrane, Paul Krugman, and Scott Sumner have in common? A lot more than you think. It would be easy to conclude otherwise base

Tribal Reality and Extant Reality
noahpinionblog.blogspot.com

(This is adapted from a rather silly speech I like to give to my finance classes when the slide projector breaks. Warning: includes blatant

Content economics, part 5: news
blogs.reuters.com

The conception of what counts as news is going to get broader. It will include living articles of the kind that Klein is talking about; it w

Best of Interop 2013 Winners Announced - Network Computing
www.networkcomputing.com

The Best of Interop award recognizes innovation in eight tech categories, including networking, cloud, security, mobility and more. Winners

Subway Surfers
market.android.com

DASH as fast as you can! DODGE the oncoming trains! Help Jake, Tricky & Fresh escape from the grumpy Inspector and his dog. ★ Grind trains w

When does fiscal stimulus work?
www.economist.com

RECOVERIES around the world are looking less certain than they did a few months ago, and this has prompted a new round of calls for addition

Mein Unbehagen mit Quasi-Monetarismus / My Discomfort with Quasi-Monetarism
kantooseconomics.com

English Ein Gastbeitrag von Henry Kaspar Regelmäßigen Lesern dieses Blogs wird der Begriff "Quasi-Monetaristen" ein Begriff sein: eine

Searching for a pot of gold
www.economist.com

Readers suggest some alternative economic indicators  A FEW weeks ago The Economist invited readers who enjoy our Big Mac index to invent o

Dennis Ritchie: The Shoulders Steve Jobs Stood On | Wired Enterprise | W...
www.wired.com

The tributes to Dennis Ritchie won’t match the river of praise that spilled out over the web after the death of Steve Jobs. But they should.

Coding Relic: NVGRE Musings
codingrelic.geekhold.com

NVGRE Musings. Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to Facebook. It is an interesting time to be involved in datacenter networking. Ther

The food is tasty, the people are nice, and the prices are very reasonable. There's a small outdoor dining patio (no indoor dining area). We had the cheese ravioli with meat sauce, very good.
Public - a year ago
reviewed a year ago
Our whole family loves this school. If your top priority for your child is memorizing multiplication tables at the youngest possible age while avoiding any exposure to dirt, this may not be the school for you. But if want your child to learn about citizenship, being part of a community, taking responsibility and making good choices, all while developing a life-long love of learning, then you've come to the right place. Maybe the shortest convincing testimonial comes from a fellow parent, a teacher at a local high school, who observed that his most engaged, most dynamic, most with-it students came disproportionately from Peninsula School... so that's where he sends his daughter.
• • •
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
It's a no-hassle experience for sure. Sam Ebrahimi (salesman) drove me home and then back to the dealership, making things easier. Pricing seemed fair and consistent with the modest amount of Internet data I scraped up.
Public - 4 years ago
reviewed 4 years ago
4 reviews
Map
Map
Map
Best data center networking gear on the planet. :-)
Public - 4 years ago
reviewed 4 years ago