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More Red Meat, More Mortality

"Eating red meat is associated with a sharply increased risk of death from cancer and heart disease, according to a new study, and the more of it you eat, the greater the risk."
Jonathan Mayer's profile photoLee Lloyd's profile photo
So I'm curious why nothing even close to these levels of mortality are evident in the life expectancy of heavy red meat eating countries (like the US), versus countries with a low red meat intake like Japan. Japan has a higher life expectancy to be sure, but the difference is more in the 5% range, not the 12-20% per daily three ounces of red meat they are claiming.
Adding to my earlier response, according to the USDA, Americans, on average, eat 7.4oz of beef/pork/veal a day, and Japanese, on average, eat 2.7oz of beef/pork/veal a day. So, according to this study, the life expectancy in the US, should be between 18.72% and 31.2% lower than the life expectancy in Japan (based on their formula of 12-20% mortality increase per three ounces consumed daily, based on how processed the meat was). In reality, the life expectancy gap between the US and Japan (depending on which numbers you go with) is between 3.5% and 5.21%.

That is quite a gap there.
+Lee Lloyd you are confusing percentage increase of risk with percentage points.

For example, if your risk of cancer goes from 2% to 3%, that is a 50% increase of risk, though your risk only increased by one percentage point.
No, I'm not. From 78.3 (life expectancy in the US) to 82.6 (life expectancy in Japan) is a 5.5% increase. In the article, it specifically says:

"If people in the study had eaten half as much meat, the researchers estimated, deaths in the group would have declined 9.3 percent in men and 7.6 percent in women."

You will notice, it does not say their risk of death would have declined by 9.3% or by 7.6%. It said the absolute number of deaths would have declined that percentage, by lowering their meat intake by half, which would still (assuming they have somewhere around average consumption for an American) put them above the Japanese average for consumption.
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