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Justin Wolfers
Works at University of Michigan
Attended Harvard University
Lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan
5,458 followers|282,404 views
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Justin Wolfers

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My latest: 
"The government reckons that the American economy shrank over the winter, but no one really believes it... There seem to be as many asterisks on this report as might apply to Barry Bonds’s baseball records."
A less well-known but more reliable measure suggests the economy grew in the last quarter, although not by very much.
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That is neither spending nor income.  "Spending" is the part of your income that you don't save.
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Justin Wolfers

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My latest: It's a Fed Fight! What caused the economy to slow in Q1?

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/20/upshot/dueling-views-on-the-first-quarter-slump.html 
Economists disagree about the accuracy of arcane statistical measurements used to offset seasonal slowdowns.
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Justin Wolfers

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Two big new studies on neighborhood effects were just released. Let me tell you why they're important.
There’s a compelling case that good neighborhoods nurture success.
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Justin Wolfers

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Following up on yesterday's piece (which ended up on page one, natch): Why do some places have so many more missing African-American men than others?
Nationally, black women outnumber black men. But the disparity is not equal everywhere — quite the contrary.
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Can you fix typos in the piece? It says, "there are 14 states in which there are fewer than 80 prime-age black men living in households, for each 100 black men." 

Surely that last "men" should be "women".
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Justin Wolfers

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Look, I don't like Duke basketball any more than you do, but when Claire McCaskill​ says that they're not graduating their student athletes, she's just wrong. So I collected the data for a quick column: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/08/upshot/duke-is-also-a-winner-in-graduation-rates.html
By one recent measure, Duke, which has several freshmen stars who may turn pro, has had a better graduation rate than Wisconsin’s program.
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Justin Wolfers

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Here's what I love about writing for The Upshot: The freedom to write a thousand words and three charts to explain in excruciating detail how classical measurement error leads to attenuation bias.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/03/upshot/why-a-claim-about-the-irrelevance-of-parenting-time-doesnt-add-up.html
Insights can be found despite measurement problems, which affect nearly all studies, but cause-and-effect conclusions require careful interpretation.
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Justin Wolfers

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My latest: The Dad Bod, Quantified
Someone had to do it: figure out how much softer a man’s body gets, on average, when he becomes a father.
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My latest: What do political prediction markets have to say about today's British election? It's a coin flip! Heads the conservatives return; Tails Labour takes over.
The traditional two-party system is breaking down, which makes the outcome more uncertain, in this case a 50-50 tossup.
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My latest: Why You Can’t Put Faith in Reports of First-Quarter Economic Slumps
The algorithm behind the government’s seasonal adjustment for G.D.P. has consistently missed the mark.
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guy yak
 
both phillips and liesman should be familiar with the hypotheses of calendar effects and arduous work of frank anthony taucher who gathered and reported the data for technical analyses of the markets ¦

unfortunately classical economists do not trade financial instruments in realtime markets so they are often bias against the observations and practices of marketmakers ¦ #calendareffects have been active speculations for a very long time which should be readily known by any senior at an investment house like goldman sachs ¦

the notions behind seasonal adjustments are different from calendar effects ||
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My latest: today should be between 25 and 54 years old have disappeared from daily life.
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My latest: "it is time to revisit earlier optimism, and to warn about the possibility that the recovery may be at risk of stalling."
On average, economic data released so far through 2015 has tended to be worse than expected.
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My latest column deals with bad statistical reasoning, my recent visit to Disney World, and parental angst.
A recent study that found otherwise largely reflects the failure of the authors to accurately measure parental input.
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I suspected the headlines were misleading so thanks for this.
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Have him in circles
5,458 people
ben chinwendu's profile photo
Jennifer obregon's profile photo
John Nguyen's profile photo
Joseph D'Angelo's profile photo
Lance Larson's profile photo
John Hillers's profile photo
Francis Akuffo's profile photo
Regina Iannello's profile photo
Greg B Davies's profile photo
Work
Occupation
Economics Professor
Employment
  • University of Michigan
    Professor of Economics and Public Policy, 2011 - present
  • Brookings Institution
    Non-resident Senior Fellow, 2009 - present
  • The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
    Associate Professor of Business and Public Policy, 2004 - 2012
  • Stanford GSB
    Assistant Professor of Economics, 2001 - 2004
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Previously
Sydney, Australia - Cambridge, MA - San Francisco, CA - Philadelphia, PA - Washington, DC - Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
Story
Tagline
Economist by day. Dad by night. Runner when I find the time.
Education
  • Harvard University
    Ph.D, Economics, 1997 - 2001
  • University of Sydney
    B.Ec (Hons and medal), 1991 - 1994
  • James Ruse Agricultural High School
    1985 - 1990
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Birthday
December 11
Relationship
In a domestic partnership
These guys are rip-off artists. Don't waste your time here. Our story. We called around different dealerships for prices for a new car. These guys were cheapest, so I made sure to call again and to go through the price and all the usual hidden extras line by line. I wanted to make sure that we weren't going to get the usual car salesman bull. He gave us all those details. Then we went in to the dealership, ready to sign the papers and drive the car off the lot. Suddenly the salesman "discovered" that the car we wanted had an extra "$1000" in extras on it (all extras the dealer had put on), and because he was so "generous", he would give it to us for an extra $600. (These were all nonsense extras too that aren't worth anywhere near that.) So suddenly our precisely negotiated price was another $600 higher. We walked out, vowing never to come back again. And the same thing will happen to you: Read the other reviews here. Basically they put these "extras" on all their cars, which makes it all the more surprising that they "forget" to tell you about them. Don't waste your time--even after double-checking before we drove out here, we just learned they were lying to us. Liars, cheats and time wasters.
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reviewed a year ago
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