Public
"Another software technology will come along and kill off the web, just as it killed news, gopher, et al. And that judgment day will arrive very soon -- in the next two to three years, not 25 years from now." -- George F. Colony, Forrester Research CEO, 2000
There is a golden rule that one should either forecast an event, or a time, but never both.Aug 31, 2012
+John Cook How much did people pay to get advice from Forrester Research? I'm old enough to have learned to stop predicting the future, even in my area of expertise. [In a private exchange in 2003, when I was a research officer for the government of Canada, I predicted that we would not have videoconferencing for ordinary folks for another decade. Then Skype came along.]Aug 31, 2012
Plastics!Aug 31, 2012
I think the Forrester prediction was very plausible. Web development is one ugly hack on top of another, and usually something so ugly doesn't survive. But the web has compensating advantages that cause people to put up with the disadvantages, at least for now.Aug 31, 2012- As Lenin said, "Quantity has a quality all its own. "One ugly hack on top of another" was my original opinion too, but I changed my mind:
Reinventing the Web
http://traction.tractionsoftware.com/traction/permalink/Blog936Aug 31, 2012 
If the analogy is the printing press, it's not a matter of "killing off". The web revolution left the printing press working; not dead and still useful. The next revolution, in 100 or so years will be similar.Aug 31, 2012
Add a comment...