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after some deliberation i have decided not to run the study i have sketched below. i have weighed the logistic effort i'd have to put in in order to obtain reliable quality data, the number of people declaring initial interest as an indicator of the sample size projected for an actual live study (thanks to all who have taken the time to answer this preliminary survey though! big up!),  the number of hypotheses that can be tested with such a sample, the time and effort needed for the analyses and the documentation of potential outcomes and have come to the conclusion that the resources i'd have to put in along with the risk to not get a large enough sample to do the analyses that i want to do exceed the potential gains.
i still believe that an experimental/controled approach is viable and that with a set amount of participants, more reliable and precise results can be gained than through a "everybody jot down whatever items you happen to put in your mufg last night or when ever, and then approximately how many items you got out some hours later and how many items you think you did add to the capsule in between..." survey. however, conclusions from these types of surveys are cropping up recently and they seem to be good enough an approximation to further depress the incremental gain from an experimental study.
sorry, it's hard for me to let this idea go, but it's a smart choice to let it go at this point.
thank you for the interest and may your items multiply copiously!


would anyone be willing to participate in an experimental study where you would treat your mufg for, say, four weeks according to a preset plan imposed on you (e.g. 50 L8 resonators in one week, 30 jarvis in the next and so on),  report the current number of items every, say, 12 hours on a simple online form, and otherwise not touch the mufg? it would be quite restrictive - essentially you give the power how your capsule is used over to a third party and execute their wishes to the letter - and you could not really use the capsule at your own discrection and fluctuating ideas. but a study of this sort could give some robust and reliable numbers to get a reliable and initial estimates to answer questions like:
* do different capsules have different interest rates and if so, which?
* do different capsules have different interest intervals, and if so, which?
* do items of different rarity multiply differently?
* is there a fixed or rather variable interest rate?
* does it matter if the capsule contains mixed items or is it better to only load one type of item?
* does it impede replication if i look into the capsule often or does it not matter?
also such an experimental study may serve as a precedent for future studies about ingress items (including subsequent studies on the mufg that can answer additional questions and test very specific hypotheses) and make it easier in the future to hack item regularities.

i have thought about setting up something like this, but have so far hesitated, because i didn't know whether it is worth the effort if not many people would agree to such a capsule regimen. i however still believe it would be useful. one main obstacle to data analysis of mufg events so far is that, people display a huge variation in what they put in, for how long they let it sit, etc... the analysis of data like this, however requires huge numbers of observations, very, very precise and reliable data and, most importantly, certain distributions of different capsule use parameters. but an experimental study, where some things are tightly controlled and planned out, may give quality answers with a smaller sample of mufg capsule behavior observations. so: how many people would be up for a study of this kind? please answer the poll, and indicate if you would be in general willing to participate in such a study. and leave your comments in the ... wel...er... comments section.

If you don't have a mufg at this time, this may still be interesting. if i get around to running the the study, it will not be in the immediate future like tomorrow. i would have a registration thingy going fpor a while, and only a while after registration would the study commence. there will in general be more time for you to collect a capsule (i wish you all the best for getting one, i really do!). don't let the current lack of a mufg in your inventory prevent you from expressing interest here.
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I would participate in such a study.
I would NOT participate in such a study.
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