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I have a feeling like today is going to be an interesting day for Flash game developers who were left in the dark about Adobe’s decision to try and monetize the game specific features of the player ( I am not going to get into that too much here because in all honesty Adobe has every right to try and make money on their closed and proprietary platform. Unfortunately I feel really bad for the people who are still trying to make a living making Flash games and now are faced with reality that Adobe is reaching their hands into the slim profits they are trying to make already. While this makes sense for Adobe to tax huge companies like Zynga that have built their entire business around making Flash based Facebook games, what about all the other indi game devs and flash game portal sites that will be unfairly taxed?

With all of this going on I wanted to reiterate the fact that Flash is not the only game in town any more when it comes to the web. There are some great alternatives such Unity for 3d game development and every day new HTML5 game frameworks are being announced which show incredible potential. I’ve done a lot of research into the fledgling HTML5 game framework community and found ImpactJS ( to be one of the best ones out there. I should note that while Impact costs $100, it is a one time fee and gives you an incredibly easy to use/well documented framework, the source code for the framework, demo games and a level editor. Basically everything you need start making game as soon as you download it plus there is a native iOS wrapper that allows you to publish your Impact games iOS with native like performance.

I have always been a big proponent for branching out and learning new technologies so today I will give away 10 copies of my book ( to help people get started with Impact. I am interested in people’s thoughts about HTML5 gaming and if they are currently Flash game devs who are thinking about exploring other technologies such as HTML5, Unity or Native. I don’t want this to turn into a bitch fest so I will give a copy of my book to the 10 people who contribute positively to the discussion. I think Flash is still a viable platform for some things but there are a lot of people out there who are caught in the middle of a tough transition and need better help understanding the web tech landscape and what they should invest their time to keep their development skills desirable to employers and clients over the next few years.

I am not the only resource on the web talking about HTML5 gaming so if you have interest in learning more you should check out the following people:

Richard Davey -@photonstorm(HTML5 and Flash game developer)
Seb Lee-Delisle -@seb_ly(Creative JavaScript Guru)
Rob Hawkes -@robhawkes(HTML5 Game evangelist for Mozilla)
Sean McCracken -@Seantron(Unity3d expert)
Elbert Perez -@mechaghost(WP7 Indi game dev and now HTML5 game developer)
Adam Atomic -@ADAMATOMIC(iOS indi game dev extraordinaire and creator of Flixel for iOS/Flash)
David Isbitski -@thedavedev(Win8+ Wp7 evangelist at Microsoft)
Lost Decade Games -@lostdecadegames(HTML5 game dev company)

Also, I would follow religously if you are hugry for the lastest news about HTML5 game development.

Finally if reading books, following people on twitter or just picking up code and experimenting with it on your own is not your thing, I am doing 3 HTML5 game dev workshops so far this year & 5 talks at conferences on my experiance about HTML5 gaming which you can find dates and registration information on at my site

Also here are some great HTML5 games that really highlight the potential of the platform and what people are currently doing to push the envelope:

Also check out some of my own Impact games/experiments - Runs on iPhone4+ & iPad 2+ at close to 60 fps - Protype for a future game I’ll be portin to Unity3d - fully open source and built in 24 hours

Let’s keep the comments positive and I’ll announce the book winners tomorrow.
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While I'm not a big fan of the news and already had a rant about it, I really don't understand any of your points. Portal sites make lots of money. It only affects game devs that make 50K and Impact is good but not amazing there a lot of things that you can't do with it. Plus this is for stage3D.
+Almog Koren My point, which I should have clarified, about Flash game portals is that if Adobe turns off more and more developers to using Flash to make games because of the new gaming API fees, less devs will make Flash games and then that market will dry up as well. Plus what is to stop Adobe from trying to charge other sites which monazite Flash gaming in the future just like Adobe actively when after any site using the word "Flash" in it a few years back and forces them to rebrand themselves.
So that makes sense now, I agree but I think portal sites are pretty much dead or slowly losing there base either way. Mobile and other platforms are killing them.

As for the new Adobe movie I agree it's a bad move I'm really pissed about already had a rant about it
I find every new announcement from Adobe leaves me shaking my head. I want to support them, but it's like a consistent case of "meh, we need to wring more dollars outta you people. you've had flash for free for TOO LONG!"
Although this is indeed a great day to turn Flash developers into HTML5 developers, I still feel that it's miles away in terms of features.
I mean, when Steve Jobs stood on that stage and bashed Flash while stating the HTML5 is the future, he knew that HTML5 didn't work so well on iOS devices (April 2010), things have improved since, but it's still not optimal.

I understand your backing of HTML5 and the Impact engine, but if I try to make a game with sound and I don't get any sound on iOS devices then we really haven't progressed much.

Don't get me wrong, I too am expanding my business to provide HTML5 solutions for my clients.
But displaying it as if HTML5 is the answer to everything since Adobe is so "evil", is wrong.

I know that you have your beef with Adobe and Flash from years past and I agree that HTML5 is the future.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves only because Adobe imposed a "tax" on high-end applications and games that use their premium features (I do not agree with this fee, but I get where they're coming from)
As an agency Flash developer for the past 6 years (branded mini-games and sites), I've been riding a rollercoaster these last few months. On the one hand I feel like I'm being pushed out of what I love doing, on the other hand, if I wasn't feeling "obligated", maybe I would've picked up HTML5 or another technology much sooner, since I do love learning new technologies. I just don't like being said what to do. And that's exactly what everybody has been saying to me: "What, you're still doing Flash? Flash is dead, you can do everything with HTML5 now." It's tiring having to explain that, no, HTML5 can't do everything Flash can, and that there's more to the story than what the popular media reports.

I love Flash, but the constant PR disasters that Adobe keeps shelling out doesn't make me hopeful about my future with the platform. I'm doing mostly slicing and integration nowadays, since clients don't ask for Flash anymore. So I hope HTML5 will someday let me do the things I do in Flash now, with the same ease and good tools. I looked at ImpactJS, but since a lot of our customer base still uses unsupported browsers, it may not be the best choice. Then again, if we're gonna keep catering to the lowest common denominator, our agency will always lag behind.
That said, these new changes to Flash won't affect me in the slightest. I've been trying to move to indie game development, since I have decent experience in branded mini-games now. But I seem to always get stuck on the question "which technology?".
I dont think most developers who are using flash to make games to deploy to ios, android or the web will be using the combination of premium features or break the 50k mark which requires the license option.

That said, there are a lot of reasonably priced and free options for game development out there which are not flash & have just as wide a base for deployment -- if not wider in some cases. Personally, I have been spending time learning Unity & HTML5 for my projects, and have enjoyed using both so far.

Adobe has a small window to rebrand flash from a web swf deployment option into something similar to Unity, Haxe, Sencha and the other platform independent development environments. They seem to be taking small steps towards this, but they seem to be lost in finding the new identity of the brand and its relationship with the development community is hurting. If they want Flash to remain relevant, they need to stop with the intermittent, poorly written press releases, collect themselves and figure out the long haul end goal.

If this new move is an attempt to truly step flash up into a window to compete on a high level placing it as a development platform for console deployment, then Adobe needs to clarify this. The concern here would be for any developer using them ---- what will they change / charge for next? Most established developers who use flash to develop a game targeting 50k+ in revenue are likely to have business plans in place to adjust for this new premium license in their pricing. A few developers will likely get caught with their pants down when they have the flash in the pan (no pun intended) success stories and did not plan accordingly.

Personally, I will probably continue to use flash from time to time for some projects. I like the development environment and have years of experience with the platform, however I am exploring other options like html5 for my development purposes. Should one of them really speak well to me, I would be more than content to switch towards it as my primary option.
Some big problems here. Adobe are trying to make Flash the console for the web, yet are making it harder for top end studios to create that content. I have heard people saying they are going after 'Zynga' money and that it wont affect the majority of flash game developers like myself. I do not think that this is the case, because if those studios have to give away 9% of their income, then they are much more likely to use a different technology. It also will affect flash game developers, especially freelance ones, because companies like Zynga wont be hiring them anymore. I made a point earlier today on Twitter that if i was a startup and wanted to create a console quality multiplayer FPS for Facebook, then Flash isn't the best tool and i'd be likely to look at alternatives. There are others out there that are better and less expensive also, so i think Adobe are going to have a hard time trying to make sales. I think this move has had an affect on the future of Flash, because games the top end games that Adobe are expecting just wont appear on their platform. They will get built, but using different technologies. Also, how on earth are they going to track everyone that uses the tech? Can we expect another security or privacy news story regarding FlashPlayer? I guess it does give Adobe more of a reason to have an interest in developing FlashPlayer further, but they have already said that the IDE will output HTML5 in the future, so im not going to believe that just yet either. Im a big fan of Flash as the games i make with it put food in my mouth. However even I seem to get more excited ImpactJS than Adobe announcements, which just seem to get worse. I think i should write a blog post on this...
+craig beswetherick

I made a point earlier today on Twitter that if i was a startup and wanted to create a console quality multiplayer FPS for Facebook, then Flash isn't the best tool and i'd be likely to look at alternatives.

What web based alternative is there today that provides the reach and richness of the Flash Player? Not being sarcastic, I am curious what other technology you could use to build and deploy a web based FPS that has the reach of the Flash Player.
I can honestly say that I am now as fast at building HTML5 games as I was in Flash. I've invested a huge amount of time in the easelJS framework and I've been able to produce at really high speeds with it. If you are comfortable with the display list approach with AS3, then you'll be up and running with easelJS pretty much immediately.

I'm under an NDA on a big game that I'm using this framework for now, but I can say that a very cool portal is underway which includes web sockets for multi-player HTML5 games and I'm super stoked to be a part of it. I can't wait to share more.
I definitely have mixed feeling about it and still very much in a wait and see kinda mindset but right now it doesn't look like this decision is going to effect indy game devs that much. Just seems like the percentage of indies that are using Stage3D and Alchemy and making over $50,000 in revenue is very small if non-existent. Not to mention that this only effects the web player meaning Adobe Air apps are in the clear (for now). I see it as similar to the Unreal Development Kit model where it's free unless you can afford to pay for it, which seems pretty fair to me. Certainly better then Apples $100 developer license just for testing apps on your own device.

As a flash developer I get really excited when Adobe announces a new set of APIs with some fancy tech demo and until html5 gets the WebGL/hardware acceleration thing figured out across browsers flash is still the best solution for most graphically intense web games. Adobe's decision to distance themselves from the Flash Pro tool and support a more open development (open to different tools) is one I'm happy about and this pricing model seems like a fair way to keep funding additional features for the flash player.

What Adobe is banking on is already established game engines providing a flash export (Unity, UDK, Crytech). The cost of creating high quality 3D assets ensures that studios using these engines are going to be making at least $50,000 to be profitable. This is the potential audience Adobe is trying to monetize.

With that being said I'm concerned with how adobe is going to move forward on this. What additional features/APIs are going to become premium and how will the pricing structure change in the future?
+Mike Chambers For me it's not about what Flash does today or tomorrow but what will I be doing in 10 years from now. I remember Flash 3 and 4 when you could hardly build a game yet director was king and was the web gaming platform of choice at the time. If I had not learned Flash then, helped show off its potential and believed in the platform I would have been out of a job real fast as Flash ate Director's user base. It just seems silly to me for people to discredit the same potential in HTML5 now and that it can only get better while in 2 years from now as Apple and Microsoft both focus on tablets that rely more on HTML5 there is a clear end in site for the plugin erra on the web.

How will I play that FPS facebook shooter on the web when tablets (namely the iPad) will outsell computers by the end of the year. Flash still doesn't run on iOS in the browser but my Impact games (without sound support) are already running at almost 60 fps and only getting better. All Apple has to do is fix audio issues in Safari on iOS and the biggest technical hurdle for mobile web based HTML5 games will be solved. And when I want to play a FPS I'll boot up my XBox 360, PS3, Vita or play it on my iPad which now has a better GPU and screen resolution then most console out right now.
+Jesse Freeman 10 years from now!? What? That's nuts. My take is that Adobe sees that people actually make money making games and they wanted a way to get some of that money. More power to them. But, what it does for the other Flash devs (most of them) is brings into question where Adobe is going. They can't even support the products they have and they add some high performance great stuff while necessarily leaving other things unfixed or unsupported.

My use of Flash/AIR is very simple. If I have a client who wants to pay me, I'm fine doing whatever they want. If I want to deliver a product I just have to do it quick before Adobe breaks everything. Seriously, I don't even want to try to get my set up working in AIR 3.2 because I just got AIR 3.1 to work as advertised... I have to finish these projects without delay.... without Adobe changing something. Yes, I'm being paranoid, but I just wouldn't take on a project that could last months and months if it depends on Adobe being consistent and supportive. If I can crank something out in a few weeks, Flash/AIR might be the best choice. HTML5 is exciting but it's really only an option for certain projects. Some people (maybe you) avoid Flash when it really is the best choice.
+Si Robertson "Only the ignorant developers around here are freaking out about the premium features pricing, those developers who obviously don't understand what the REAL game development world is like."

I think that is somewhat wrong to say, while this change does not affect most developers it creates a lot of questions and issues.

I can go on but if +Joa Ebert says "I am no longer committed to supporting any Flash related open-source projects." I think that says it. And +Joa Ebert is not a Flash hatter
I agree with +Si Robertson. I really don't understand the the purpose of starting a topic about Adobe's Stage3d premium licensing announcement, to simply boast about html5 products and services.

Overbearing comments like these are what makes the technology community as a whole really annoying to follow and makes being a flash developer suck these days.
+Si Robertson actually don't think I was bashing Flash or Adobe at all with this. I am just curious as to what games devs think of it or if Flash devs are more interested in exploring other options now due to the announcement. Given some of my other rants I think this is probably the most neutral one I have ever posted.

I guess my biggest fear of investing time into Flash to do game dev is what will the next tax be or what feature will Adobe make people pay for moving forward. What they have done is fair so fair and considering I make no money from game dev at all I could care less if Adobe charged even more for it.

As a person who has been pushing Adobe for all of these features for years which would have been helpful when Flash was relevant in the enterprise space (where I actually make my living) I found it insulting and moved on. My clients wanted their apps to run on the iPad since that is important and they moved on too. I was actually tempted to start doing a little more Stage 3d but until Adobe figures out what they are doing with the platform or at least gives us all the facts and doesn't keep changing it every 3 months I find it way more volatile the HTML5 regardless if I can make AAA games with it or not.

I'll never make AAA games, nor will I be a full time game dev but I think what attracted me to Flash and now HTML5 game dev is to just make simple, easy to build games and have fun. This is just my hobby, and I don't want to be wrapped up in some platform's motorization strategy especially when there are so many cool technologies out there right now that offer a lot in the way of performance, visual power and challenge.

The upside of all the HTML5 game dev is that the skills I learn are directly applicable to the enterprise work I do now helping clients transition away from Flex and into HTML5. It's just an added bonus that at night I get to hone my skills by doing something I love such as building games and help my work out by being proficient in HTML5/JS dev. Another reason why I am reaching out to people to help offer up what I learned if they feel stuck or frustrated with everything going on.
There are definitely flash / flex people out there that frustrated and worried. I talk to them everyday.I don't see anything wrong with providing some support for people who may have questions about moving on to other technologies. These types of posts turn into "flash bashing" posts b/c of the people who overreact to them and leave comments that get everyone all worked up.
So bottom line, +Jesse Freeman you hate Flash because you asked Adobe for certain features to be added to Flash and they didn't listen to you, so you got insulted and started bashing the platform and its developers?
Everyone says the same positive spin on the speed tax, it only effects a small number of developers who develop for the browser (for now). If this is true, why did Adobe even bother? Generating more bad PR can't be worth the profit, maybe it can. Since I can't trust Adobe any more or anyone who Adobe uses as a megaphone, I call BS and say this is first step to monetizing all Flash-based games (on mobile as well). Adobe is going to milk that Flash cow til its good and dead.
+Nico Troia I think that was a bad part on +Jesse Freeman adding all the HTML5 links to show how its better. I think the question here what will Adobe do next. To be honest was just part of an Adobe web session not under NDA.

And this change is not a big deal but the first part of the hole session was how games are making money, and not just Flash games but AIR. I see Adobe trying to get a cut from this as well.
+Daniel Albu That is not entirely true. I wouldn't say Adobe didn't listen to just me, there are lots of vocal thought leaders they didn't listen too who were way more important then me and have all left the platform as well.

Well I see this turned into a fun conversation. Glad avid supporters of Flash (those of you left at this point) are so open to learning new technology or discussing it.
And I would add this post is not +Jesse Freeman bashing Flash, have you read some older posts.

At the end of that Adobe has never had a revenue sharing model for Flash why the change? What will happen next?
You see, +Jesse Freeman you got insulted YET AGAIN.
"Well I see this turned into a fun conversation. Glad avid supporters of Flash (those of you left at this point) are so open to learning new technology or discussing it." - You didn't start this conversation to show us the benefits of HTML5, hell I'd love to see great HTML5 games and examples and to support HTML5.
You started this conversation to bash Adobe, Flash and only as a side note to promote HTML5.
Had it been only the latter, I believe this conversation would have been much more "professional".
Well, I'm starting to understand Adobe's strategy now. They are trying to kill whole Flash Platform without losing more trust in the developers so they can sell their upcoming set of crappy tools for HTML5. So, rather than killing it like Flash Player for Mobile, they have taken another route, make developers' lives a HELL so that they slowly stop using Flash Platform completely and then Adobe can easily kill the whole platform without having to justify it. Hmmm. Now, I got it.
Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention that Adobe needs that 9% of revenue share to pay its highly skilled and highly paid CEO, whose performance has been incredible from the beginning. Also, Adobe PR team will get some promotions and salary raise, after all its very hard to be so consistent. Hats off to them.
I hope you're not seriously suggesting that it's possible to monetize with HTML5... are you? I'd love to see some examples of that...
This is a good thing for the platform. They aren't going to be making much money off of tools for the Flash Platform anymore. So why not continue to promote development for the future with another revenue stream?

This wont impact a majority of Flash applications, banners, and even games out there. Likely, it will only impact larger AAA game companies or individuals who make a ton of money off a specifically designed type of game.

Remember its the combo of Stage3D AND Opcodes for fast memory on a desktop that trigger this scenario. Plus you need to make more than 50,000 in revenue to hit that threshold.

If I made 200,000 and just used op codes... I pay nothing. If I made 130,000 and just used Stage3D... I pay nothing. If I make a mobile game using both and made 600,000 I still pay nothing.

HOWEVER. If I make a desktop game using Stage3D and fast memory opcodes and I make 60,000. I owe Adobe 900. That's not bad at all.

Here is the math... (60,000-50,000)*.09=900!
Sorry but there's a lot of small-to-medium sized game studios that will get affected by this change : for instance $50K for a 5 person team over the full life of a game is ridiculously low.

Plus a lot of annoyance for people relying on libraries that are using the domainMemory features (Box2D, Nape, Away 3D Physics for instance)...

Don't forget too that AAA tiles will still need to license a game engine anyway so it's 9% MORE
+Shawn Blais do you know Travian ? It's made in HTML (not even 5!) and made millions, please stop saying nonsense if you don't know about the games market
+Nicolas Cannasse If you are responsible for a team of 5+ people, then you likely wont be just producing one game a year. The federal government is going to be taking more than Adobe ever will! Plus

Why would impact libraries? Most of them you mentioned were offered freely. The devs of those libraries wont need to worry about getting charged. However, the end developer needs to be responsible if they happen to use those features in exactly that way specified by Adobe. My guess is most devs are getting along fine with out those premium features. What difference does it make now?

This may all be a moot problem anyway when the next version of AS comes out. They are promising near native speeds, and from what I gather, this makes 99% of what I need to do capable in a more traditional way.
+Mike Chambers I have seen a lot of demos for HTML5 first person shooters already, made by people just messing around by themselves. I'm not that knowledgable about the libraries they used but i'd be ready to put money on a company being able to deliver something great, using free technology. Im not talking right away, but id be very surprised if we didn't see something like that by 2013/2014. Ok so right now the reach isn't as good, but its not going to take ages for that to improve, especially within the demographic of users that would probably play a FPS. I think +Jesse Freeman made a good point about tablets, with iOS being without a doubt the biggest selling. Flash Player doesn't run on the device, so that reach wont always be so dominant. Everyday users browsing Facebook on their iPad wont be able to see the game, so there could be a big part of my audience i have just let slip away.
It isn'tt about whether it's possible, it's whether it's profitable and feasible. I could write a FPS in Chrome Canary right now today, all the API's are there... but I'll never make money from it, because
A) It will take me forever without a proper toolchain, and no OOP language.
B) There's no user's to see my game...

And you're missing the story regarding iOS. A Stage3D game in browser, can be ported directly to the iTunes App Store for monetization there. So, the reach is not limited in any way at all. If the user comes to your website on an iOS device, you would simply bump them over to the App Store.

So ya, the reach will improve. IE9 and IE10 will never support it, but Chrome and FF and Safari probably will. But improve when... 1 year, 2 years... all the while dev's need to make money now, today, this year. So they'll need to use Flash, Flash will continue to improve, refine mature...

Adobe should easily be able to outpace the stumbling behemoth that is the W3C and stay far ahead in terms of workflow and feasibility.
i'll pick up my signed copy next week!
Awesome, thanks. I'm sure it'll come in handy when we finally manage our users off IE7 and 8 :)
I'd wager that more money has been made selling books (and lectures) about HTML5, than has actually been made by HTML5 games.

And that sort of says it all really.
+Shawn Blais I really wish I was making money on selling my book (and giving them away for free) and my workshops but I don't make anything from it. I just do it because I love messing around with this tech and inspiring people to push it further.
HA! When FriendsOfEd rebranded to Apress we saw all their old Flash books take backstage. They were even pulled from Barnes & Noble stores! You might be on to something +Shawn Blais Anything to make a buck. Except plenty of money will be made off the dev work of "converting" to HTML5. No company can say no to a client it seems when dollars are there for the taking. The same companies will be there to take their money when the clients are underwhelmed or even outraged at performance to come back to Flash.
+Jesse Freeman Sorry, wasn't really meant as a dig, just that there's an entire ecosystem right now forming around convincing people that they should use html, no really, use it!
+Shawn Blais no offense taken, I wish I could turn making games into real money but I am too busy doing enterprise development for exactly what you guys are talking about, which is helping companies adopt HTML5 right now. Adobe gave me a golden ticket for the next few years to help with manning the Flex/Flash life rafts to enterprise clients.

I don't know many people who make a solid living on doing indi game dev or even full time game dev (and still have the freedom to do what they want instead of working for a massive game company). For me, I see a lot of people who are burnt out doing boring dev at work all day and at night just want to do something fun while still practicing their skills. That is how I always treated game dev and why I do it on the side. And every day I reapply it back to my enterprise work.

Anyone who has written a book knowns you don't do it for money. And the workshops are great because introducing people to game dev, who have never made a game before, is awesome and inspring which is why I just did a free workshop at Microsoft's office and also gave away copies of my book for free as well. Just want people to have fun with it.

When Adobe tries to take a cut of someone else hard work like they are doing is disgusting! It's one thing to pay $100 for a license to use Impact vs what Adobe is doing wich is charging you for the tools (or lack there of) and then the extra performance you need to do anything worth wild with it. It should be a flat fee or part of what you get when you buy the tools, not a continual gouging off the backs of other people's success. That is why I have no desire to ever do Flash again and I would never build a game with it either. I rather make no money like I do now and have fun then live with Adobe's feble attempts to monazite what's left of their dying platform before the jettison it for HTML5 anyways.
Of my 4 books, one made quite a bit of money--it was well worth writing. If only I had written a Flash 4 book. ALL of those sold >100,000 copies! I was late with my first being on Flash 5.

Anyway, just because there's lot of hype behind HTML5 doesn't mean you can't make money. In fact, I'd argue every "html5" project I've done has cost MORE. You could say this is bad for business or for the GNP--but for my personal economy it's just fine. Ultimately, though, "churn" is good. If nothing else, you can make money consulting telling people what technology to use. It might make you cringe every time you have to explain things... and often I've found myself sounding like a defensive Luddite... but anything that gets my clients calling is good.

Plus, just think of how much work is available to convert old projects to the new platforms!

I'm all for the "flash is dead" thing. Part of it is true and part of it is just good for the increased activity.
Ha, what's with the attempts to twist Alchemy into some must-have feature all of a sudden. So, concurrent workers on seperate thread...meh, not worth talking about...can't use alchemy... OMFGBBQWTFADOBESUCKS!!!!! AAAAHHH!!
It's kind of hard to add anything to this thread, that hasn't been articulated well and debated already. But I read through the whole thread. And while it's mildly comforting to hear other flash/flex devs share their experiences so far with dealing with the chaos, I for one just cannot get myself to trust Adobe too much. And while I am not convinced Flash is anywhere near dead yet or that it couldn't grow into a successful gaming platform for the mobile future, I am a little uneasy. I see Adobe trying to dig into a completely new source of revenue to pay their bills. And I wonder if Adobe doesn't have high hopes from its tooling plans for Flash and the platform in the near future. If Adobe does indeed see HTML5 as the imminent future (and their current stance gives me no reason to believe otherwise), they seem fairly convinced they won't be able to make similar kind of money doing html5 tooling. What with a huge amount of great and open source alternatives available. Which again brings me to 'why' I should maintain my faith in Flash? I haven't seen any confidence building measures so far, that haven't backfired. Yes, the whole Premium feature fee won't affect my life for a foreseeable future. But why isn't Adobe convinced they can continue to give its loyal and extremely talented Flash/Flex community great tools and frameworks that they will continue to pay for? And let's face it, Adobe's tools have never been easy on the pocket, but we have obliged. Time and again. Sometimes, even against common sense.

So, Flash might not be a browser plugin based ecosystem anymore. Adobe might not be the company that makes the best tools/IDEs out there and makes money selling it to a passionate community. And there is an entire world of well-earned hate and pessimism towards the technology from devs, designers and clients alike. Do I want to be a foot-soldier for Adobe and do Iraq duty? I don't know. I just want to make a living. And I've been loyal to Adobe right until this moment. Long after a lot others abandoned ship. And I reckon that gives me some sort of a right to turn around and give Shantanu and co. a mouthful. But all I will say is that I agree with a few others here when they say that its highly likely that Adobe sees an end for Flash. And its sooner than we know. Its been a long drawn and public mud fest with Apple and their extremely potent PR machinery. And there just isn't an easy way for Adobe to tell it's community that they really don't have a sustainable future planned for Flash. Hence the 'embrace the future' HTML5 carnival. I'm not digging for conspiracy theories here, but the more I think about it, the more it seems Adobe just wants to strafe sideways on this until it's that day when they can finally say "As you can probably tell from our recent efforts, we have been really struggling to fund our efforts to turn Flash into the absolute best platform for rich media. Right where it deserves to be. Unfortunately we haven't been able to pull in the kind of support we had hoped to. Small story short, we can't afford to maintain Flash anymore sniff. So, yea.". And we are all just probably supposed to appreciate the efforts and accept the eventuality of it all.

I hope I'm wrong about everything. I have no ego at stake here. I love Flash far too much. I started out making 30kb banners 6 years back. But today I just can't sell the technology to a paying client anymore. And it's just down right depressing. What I AM sure about is that HTML5 will have a more than passive role to play in the very near mobile future of the web. And it wouldn't hurt to learn a little :)

+Jesse Freeman Could I possibly take up Si Robertson on the book offer he passed? :p
Sorry HTML isn't enough for me. I would sooner quit web development than sort through pile of shit the W3C so carefully put together only to be torn asunder by the browser makers. And are you really impressed by the current state of HTML on mobile? I sure as hell am not. It runs like shit and if thats the hopeful future everyone has, count me out.

Hypothetical... If Flash really were to die. Whats the worst that could happen? They give Flash to Apache? Would that be horrible? Would that satisfy the open source communists?

Or are we admitting that a governing body can't maintain the quality and control over a product such as Flash? After all, the failure of the ones implementing the browsers was the real reason a product like Flash existed in the first place.
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