Showler said it would certainly be possible to screen 25,000 refugees before the end of the year. The process could be done safely, he said, by selecting only those claimants who are obviously low risk, like women ...
(To be fair, Showler no longer works for the Government, but instead works out of the University of Ottawa)
Years ago, I lived in a region of NS that believed everything was going to be better when the government got the Ferry up and running again...
This is what I tried to explain to them. A multi million dollar project, completely financed by the government is going to fail... if it wasn't going to fail, some company would have started investing in it already.
Now begins the long, dark, 5 months of winter.
What happened? Back in 2005, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (a branch of the DOJ) did a study on recidivism, and found out that the rate is tremendously high: 68% of state prisoners end up back behind bars within three years of release. Once a criminal, always a criminal, they concluded -- and people have been shaping policy to match.
But a team read through it carefully, and it turns out that the BJS made a basic, bonehead, mistake in their statistical analysis. They thought they were measuring whether people who go to prison will reoffend; what they actually measured was that most people in prison, on any given day, are repeat offenders.
Which makes sense, because repeat offenders spend a lot more time in prison than one-time offenders.
These are not the same thing. At all. It turns out that if you do the analysis right, only 30% or so of prisoners will ever re-offend, and only 11% will do so multiple times. In fact, this "once a criminal, always a criminal" rule appears to be completely false -- unless, that is, you structure policies so that anyone with a criminal conviction is treated like a permanent criminal, and so not allowed to (say) get virtually any job other than "criminal." In which case, you will in fact end up with lots of criminals.
In the post linked below, gives some of the explanation of what went wrong in the study. You can read more at the linked Slate article (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2015/10/why_do_so_many_prisoners_end_up_back_in_prison_a_new_study_says_maybe_they.html), and even more with the paper that actually found the mistake. (http://cad.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/09/26/0011128714549655.abstract)
The most important lesson in all of this is that it's easy to make bonehead mistakes in statistics. If the statistics matter -- if you're going to use them to prescribe drugs or set public policy or something like that -- it's very important to have people check your work, repeatedly, and ask the right questions. The most important question is "have you actually measured what you think you measured," because there are all sorts of ways to screw that up.
There's also a great new book on that subject: Alex Reinhart's Statistics Done Wrong. (http://www.statisticsdonewrong.com/) Please, if you do statistics in your daily life, read it.
I laughed at most of the implementations.
I cried at some of the things we can do, but don't.
I'm sorry for some of the things that were lost.
I deal a lot with vendor supplied apps in my current position. As a developer with a QA background, I tend to find a lot of things wrong with their code.
While managers are freaking out calling for heads to role, and demanding to know who didn't do their job, and vendors are attempting to deny there is a bug and explain how its user error.... I generally just like to point out that there is a bug and ask that it be fixed.
The strangest of events can align to cause bugs, this story demonstrates why.
It seems so obvious a way to state the problem (in hindsight).
What causes poverty? Nothing. It's the original state, the default and starting point. The real question is, "What causes prosperity?"
Where does it end?
Policy being created based on a lie. Its not personal, its hilarious.
By the way, the MORE this is spread around, the LESS effective a false flag stunt by the authoritarian sociopaths would be. So spreading this around might really and truly save lives." --Larken Rose
- Capital District Health AuthoritySenior Systems Analyst, 2014 - present
- Plaid SheepBusiness Technology Consultant, 2009 - present
- Barteaux FarmsLabourer, 2011 - 2012
- Pandell TechnologyDeveloper, 2008 - 2009
- Calgary Co-opBusiness Analyst, 2007 - 2008
- Sunergon Information Services2001 - 2007
- IWK HospitalClinical Applications Specialist, 2010 - 2010
- Service Nova ScotiaProgrammer/Analyst, 2013 - 2014
- Dalhousie UniversityWeb Analyst, 2013 - 2013
- University of CalgaryNursing, 1995 - 1997
- DeVry Institute of TechnologyComputer Science, 1999 - 2001
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