## Profile

Jason Smith
Lived in Seattle, WA
28 have him in circles

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### Jason Smith

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The Fed's effective unemployment rate target
I thought this would be an interesting way to present the model results from the previous post : if we use the effective Fed funds rate instead of the 3-month rate, what we'd get is an estimate of the effective Fed target unemployment rate. Here is the grap...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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Monetary Abenomics has not generated inflation
Scott Sumner makes the claim (linking to Marcus Nunes ) about Abenomics: The data suggests that the new BOJ policy has raised inflation, and inflation expectations.  There is a mountain of evidence on that point. I am skeptical that the "evidence" shows wha...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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The effect of the ARRA
I had previously looked into the effect of the ARRA ('the stimulus'), but I forgot to include the effect of the tax cut component (which I was reminded of by this Krugman lecture ). So here's an update; I've also updated these with the more accurate monetar...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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Phlogiston economics is information economics
First, I must say that Matthew Yglesias's description of "technology" models total factor productivity (TFP) as phlogiston economics is, in a word, choice. He mentioned it today as well as at his previous blogging job (Noah Smith responded to it back then, ...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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A two-way Lucas critique
Due to the most frequent comment on this blog being something akin to "I have no idea what you are talking about" I thought I'd take some advice from Paul Krugman and write something less abstruse. I would say that the big idea in the last couple of posts (...﻿
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In his circles
29 people
Have him in circles
28 people

### Jason Smith

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Modeling macroeconomic fluctuations
Since I've been heavy into the policy implications of the information transfer model in the past few posts, I thought I'd return to some more speculative research. I've touched on the topic of macroeconomic fluctuations before (see e.g.  [1] , [2] ), but I ...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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Did the Fed offset the ARRA?
In the previous post , I looked at the effect of the ARRA. Now there exist claims of "monetary offset", i.e. that the Fed didn't do as much monetary expansion as would have happened if there was no stimulus, negating all or part of the effect of the stimulu...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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The Fed caused the Great Recession
With the release of the Fed transcripts from the September 16th 2008 meeting, a narrative of

the Fed worrying about commodities inflation distracted it from the worsening economic

situation is forming. Here are e.g. Matthew Yglesias and David Glasner . ...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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Tight monetary policy is an artifact of being in a liquidity trap
Nick Rowe discusses Chris House and comes to the conclusion (surprise!) that monetary policy is too tight : "What this means is that the so-called ZLB 'liquidity trap' is merely an artefact of tight monetary policy." There is some theory at the link behind ...﻿
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### Jason Smith

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A physicist reads the economics blogs
I just put up a two part series that motivates the equation: $$\text{(1) }p = \frac{dD}{dS} = \frac{1}{\kappa} \; \frac{D}{S}$$ in two different ways. I. Quantity theory and effective field theory II. Entropy and microfoundations The first (I) is a top do...﻿
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People
In his circles
29 people
Have him in circles
28 people
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Previously
Seattle, WA