I think Flash will be around for a while yet. The HTML5 video tag is still problematic because of browser incompatibility and H.264 licensing issues. It's been frustrating me so I'll be using Flash video players for now.
HTML5 is making progress but still has a long road ahead.
Ryan Boudreaux looks at some of the latest browser support numbers for HTML5 and Flash. Are you a partisan for either? Here are Ryan’s thoughts
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