Shared publicly  - 
 
I wrote this on Wednesday, 07NOV12, the morning after waking to find out President Obama was going to have another four years in office. BOLD TEXT indicates my reflecting on my feelings nearly two weeks ago:

Here's what I'm seeing from what happened last night:

1. The American people have spoken. Although I do not believe Conservatism is a minority mentality in America, what is exposed through the evidence from yesterday's election is that Conservatives are not well represented, and thus will not be able to well represent Americans in its political endeavors  This needs to change if America is going to become a powerful leader on the world stage again, instead of a complicit follower.

2. Americans, as a whole, do not understand the damage that has been done to our ability to sustain ourselves as a Nation. We've forgotten what self reliance means, and have traded hard work and dignity in for revenge politics a la Valarie Jarrett, David Axelrod and President Obama. America, to our dismay, has shown that the sensationalism of the dirty political game is what makes them happy.

We continue to see this represented in what happened last week with the Hostess bankruptcy proceedings. Even in the midst of corporate failure the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union's public euthanization of Hostess (their leadership knew that Hostess wouldn't be able to meet their demands, and held firm anyway, regardless of the need to work for their employees) represents a failure of the Left to realize that corporations do not exist to provide work, benefits and pensions for employees. The private sector is about the creation of wealth, not the creation of jobs. One begets the other, but without the former the latter simply cannot exist. The BCTGM, in what they called "good faith" for their workers, intentionally destroyed a cornerstone of American culture for the last 82 years. Their disregard for the livelihoods of the families of the 18.5k employees that are now out of work due to their actions is appalling, and should shown as such by our media. Instead, Hostess is being vilified by the media and by those in Leftist circles. The news doesn't indicate the truth of the matter. Instead this is being portrayed as a story of revenge made good. Hostess failed to properly care for its working class employees, instead giving lavish bonuses to its executives while the company was in the throws of bankruptcy. How else can anyone see this but as a story of the bourgeoisie getting over on the proletariat? Hostess was faced with unfunded liabilities that were going to crush it regardless of an agreement with the BCTGM. When the company reached an agreement with the Teamsters Union last week it was hopeful that the BCTGM would see there was a way to save the jobs of the employees if they  would simply allow for Hostess to work through bankruptcy in a way that would make the company profitable again. The BCTGM didn't blink, calling bluff where none existed, and now 18,500 people are out of work, along with the entire support apparatus that existed to enable an 82 year old company to be viable. Entitlement. Business does not exist to create jobs, but to create wealth. The creation of wealth necessitates the creation of jobs because wealth creation requires labor. Hostess wasn't cheating their workers. The company was bleeding money out of its union negotiated benefits and pension packages and needed a way out. The executives that sought bankruptcy were rewarded for their efforts to save the company, and would have been regardless of the union's efforts to destroy the company in what seemed like their proving a point. I wonder if the 18,500 BCTGM employees out of work now understand what that point is?

3. We, as a Nation, are in for a devaluation of the dollar as a world currency. The world, as we know it, will begin to stop trading commodities in our currency and we will begin to see a downward spiral into banana republic status as we continue to try to print our way out of the obligations Keynesian fiscal policies will create for our progeny, and theirs. America will see its credit rating dropped from the As and we will become the biggest Greece this world has ever known. The rest of the world will be forced to cut us off for fear of our failure taking us down with them.

4. Because the House remained in GOP control and the Senate did not change control we will see a perpetual Continuing Resolution built on a 2009 budget baseline that included over $1T in spending that was intended to be temporary. Instead of what President Obama promised in a reduction of our National Debt and reduction of our Deficit Spending we will see at least $5T more added to our debt with $1.3T/yr deficit spending per year until Obama leaves office.

President Obama has expressed confidence that Congress will give him the $1.6T tax increase over the next decade he feels he needs to reduce the deficit. This is a useless statement, however. The President first ran for office on a promise that he would reduce the deficit starting on day 1, but the Super Majority in Congress, held by Democrats until 2011, refused to pass a budget, instead passing continuing resolution after continuing resolution, every single one containing the full balance of the first stimulus package from 2009. This effectively ballooned the deficit to over $1.3T per year over the last budget passed by President Bush. Obama blamed Bush for the deficit, but has shown absolutely no interest whatsoever in pushing Congress in the direction of passing a budget that doesn't include $1.3T more spending than our Nation is able to generate in tax revenue. His only plan to change this dynamic is to raise taxes. When asked about reducing spending he evades the question, talks about how he's commissioned a committee or some such study to help identify waste in Government, and then ask for the next question. In every instance where waste in Government has been indicated as something that can be cut the conversation is evaded or Obama indicates that he takes the suggestions of his committees very seriously and will consider their input in due course. Little is said about the fact that the budget recommendations made by his commissions have been rejected by his Administration, and every single budget proposal he's made has been rejected soundly. If the Obama Administration had any intention of decreasing the deficit the President would have vetoed the Bill authorizing the stimulus and requested Congress change the language to exclude this addition to 2009's expenditures from 2010's baseline budget. This simple change would have eliminated over $4T of the deficit, and debt, President Obama has racked up in four years.

5. There will be continued attacks on the non-governmental institutions that have helped define what it means to be an American. The Constitution will see attack after attack as Justice Ginsburg retires and two more lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court are appointed by President Obama and Harry Reid. These appointments will be divisive, have defined designs on their personal interpretations of the Constitution and what it means in terms of how the Government can control the individual and the individual entity. We will see an increased fervor from those already in our Government for Command and Control governance, where the regulatory state will determine your outcome regardless of the legal ramifications of your actions within your state of residency. If you wish to succeed it will be at the behest of the Government, not because of your desire to do so.

6. Iran and radical Islam will be emboldened by our inability to throw off the shackles of tyranny which bind us to our fate. Ahmadinejad and others will see this election as akin to what happened in 2009 in Tahrir Square through violence and unproductive demonstration against a totalitarian regime, and recognize our unfulfilled will to oust a dictatorial despot as further evidence that we do not possess the means to prevent him from developing a nuclear device. Iran will reach that goal or Israel will be forced to stop them, or Israel will be attacked from another aggressor, and they will have to protect themselves on their own. This will spark the powder keg that is the Middle East into what could very well become the catalyst to WW3. Under President Obama we will not be prepared to protect ourselves or our allies, and we will not be prepared to feed and power ourselves without the rest of the world's resources available for our purchase because the Command and Control state will not allow for continued domestic energy and agricultural development.

Leading the world in a "Peace through Strength/Strength through Leadership" mentality is a foreign concept to this Administration. For the last four years we've done nothing but capitulate and appease our aggressors and the aggressors of our allies, to our detriment. Palestine has been attacking Israel for decades, but since the election we've seen a dramatic increase in these attacks. There isn't anything this Nation, under its current leadership, is willing to do to stem the tide that is building against Israel. Our President has indicated that Israel has the right to defend itself, but has said nothing about whether or not he will stand with them in their defense. It has been discovered (surprisingly after nearly two weeks of shelling) that Hamas has been supplied with weapons from Iran. Egypt's new Islamist regime has expressed solidarity with Hamas in their attacks on Israel. Our media has shown they're also tied to Hamas in their reporting of the events as they unfold, calling Israel's response to being brazenly attacked "assassinations" instead of retaliations. There have been political cartoons in newspapers across the United States trivializing the attacks from Hamas while at the same time implying that Israel's responses have been overblown and uncalled for. World wide, news organizations have been showing images and video of grieving families crying over children that have been touched by the violence, conveniently leaving out the fact that the Palestinian children being shown were killed by poorly maintained Hamas munitions that detonated prior to deployment, or missed their mark entirely, while Hamas militants have hidden the evidence of a Hamas fired rocket or missile having caused the damage and the family crying out for the annihilation of Israel. Demonstrably, the mainstream media in the United States, and worldwide, has a bias against Israel.

7. Because the President and those in the Senate will see their continued status in power as a mandate from the people for them to lead us to their designs of what this Nation should be we will see massive increases in taxes for the wealthy and what is known as the upper middle class. Those who have means will leave this country for nations friendlier to their wealth, and those who do not have means will suffer at the hands of a Nation that does not value their productivity as much as it values punishing it through wealth redistributive measures. Those who are in the so-called middle class will find it harder to succeed, and those who are poor will become poorer still. There will be a rash of selling of stock and a retraction from the market by those who have capital but are unwilling to spend it in anticipation of the increased taxation that will come beginning in 2013 and continue with the implementation of ObamaCare.

Already there has been a shrinking away from capital markets as businesses with much to lose are preparing for their tax liabilities beginning in 2013. Many companies have begun to publicly indicate what their plans for 2013 will mean to their workforce, and the picture they're painting isn't very pretty. There will be a new 29.5 hour work week for non-salary employees (read: wage earners, mostly below the poverty line, and many below several multiples thereof). This change in many labor practices will be in direct response to the mandate in ObamaCare that businesses with over 50 employees SHALL supply every employee working over 30 hours in a single week (hence to be referred to as "full time", a ludicrous thought process) with Government approved health insurance. Businesses with low profit margins, relying on shift labor to churn through volume consumption will increase headcount and reduce hours to make up the gap while at the same time dodge the requirement AND the tax/fine associated with not providing health insurance to their employee. Those working in low skill employment will find their hours cut from 8 hours a day/5 days a week to 4 hours a day/5 days a week, with no tolerance by the employer for over clocking, and no options for overtime. Hourly employers will hire twice the headcount, get the same amount of work out of two employees that they would have otherwise had one employee accomplish, and both employees will slide further into poverty as they're forced to work three or four jobs in order to feed their families. Again, entitlement. Business exists to create wealth, not jobs. Obama and the Left has made the conversation about ObamaCare not about the impacts to the economy, but about the health care that everyone will have. They fail to mention that you'll have to lose what health insurance you may have once had to obtain ObamaCare, and you may not be able to feed yourself while you're waiting in line for your Government mandated minimal care at the hands of overworked, under staffed medical professionals who will be leaving their jobs in droves due to the increased burdens ObamaCare places on them in terms of patient to provider ratios. Simply put, you cannot add 39M patients to what will have been known as MediCare/MediCaid without adding doctors. The Administration has indicated they see a need, due to ObamaCare, for at least 52k more private practice doctors in the coming years to deal with the increased patient load ObamaCare will create. They haven't really paid much attention to the fact that MediCare has reduced payments to doctors who take Medicare patients steadily over the years, so much so that it will eventually be impossible to make a profit as a private practice doctor in the United States. That's alright, though. Everyone will have insurance, right?

We're in for a very rough four years, everyone. If you measure our Nation's success in terms of the unemployment numbers and GDP, both are in store for a respective downturn as those who produce begin to find new markets to move their productive activities into. War will not become a thing of the past, and we will see many more instances where the controversy in Libya, and the failures of our Nation to adequately deal with the aftermath will become the norm.

We have been shown to be the moral minority. That doesn't need to be our death knell, but at present it will be discouraging. Do not despair. When confronted with the truths about Conservatism in the face of the lies of Liberalism and outside of the echo chamber that is the mainstream media, the American People invariably choose the former over the latter. We have to find a way to cleanse the GOP of those less than upstanding examples of who and what we stand for, and better educate those who are willing to listen. Our message is clear, but the minds of those receptive to it are not, and the hearts of those who would co-opt our souls for avarice and power are all too common.

This is not the end, everyone. It is a beginning. Eventually Americans will realize what they've done to themselves. Once they do, we will be there to help guide them out of the dark and into the light that is Freedom, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
33
9
Dennis Bullard's profile photoPatty Garza's profile photoTonia Hall (Pashta)'s profile photoPaul Poole's profile photo
43 comments
 
Only read about the Hostess deal. Those who yell the loudest about being for the workers have never been for the workers. They'll repack their bags and convince other ill-informed workers to join the fight so they won't suffer the fate of the Hostess workers. Ignorance is rewarded by pain. That's what is needed, plenty of pain so the socialist pay the price for what they've created.
 
The same happened to the Soviets in Russia, as is happening in North Korea, and a special brand of which is happening in Iran.

Suffering on a level this world has only known during World War. Its coming, and we're not very well prepared for it. Nay, we're welcoming it with open arms...
 
Highly detailed and right on point. Great job!
Lance G
+
2
3
2
 
Excellent treatise on our country's calamitous decline into a socialistic abyss +James Pisano .
 
The union bosses make LAVISH salaries, and in the case of the GST closure (due to the strike of the steel workers union) the union got to keep the monies set aside for the gst portion of the pension. I imagine the same will happen here, the pension funds are in the UNION bank, the insurance money as well. The union will get first dibs on it for themselves.

People forget in these cases, its the union who controls the money for pensions and insurance. Teamsters was very happy to raise retirement age, as most teamsters now don't live to draw more than a years worth. The remaining stays in the teamsters bank account. Just think if the actual business had use of that escrowed money or at least the interest earned off of it. and the unused portion was returned to them, instead of remaining with the union.
 
I hope you are right about the American people waking up and realizing what they have done.  These are some of the scariest times I can imagine.   
 
+Robert Thompson I'm afraid that in order for the American people to wake up, there has to be a calamitous result of Obama being in power for 4 more years.  I'm truly afraid to wish that upon our country.  The majority of voting Americans were happy enough with the terrible job Obama did for the first four years that they were happy enough to keep him around.  Without a new depression or Israel being destroyed or another Al Qaeda attack on our shores, I don't think the average voter has enough sense to see the light at the end of the tunnel.  Despite all of the conservative talking heads claims that this will be a wake up call for the majority of Americans, who they believe are conservatives at heart, I'm afraid that the mind set of the average American has  been forever changed for the worse by the left-leaning media and its Hollywood echo chamber.  Too many people I know, who I would consider intelligent, thoughtful people, regard the Republican party with the same disdain most of us hold for communists and socialists.  It's a mass brain-washing that I fear will we never be able to reverse.
 
Agreed, John. This was said at the beginning of Obama's first term, and shortly after the Democrats won a super majority in Congress; the only thing that galvanizes or citizenry is catastrophe. I do not hope for tragedy, but think the only thing that will open or Nation's eyes top the tyranny they voted for will be a makes, unrestrained power grab by the Left, emboldened as they will be by their "mandate", and encouraged to continue wresting power from the people and the states. Obama said himself, where Congress isn't willing to meet his needs he will use the Administration and Executive orders to achieve a command and control posture over the economy and the nation. Why did we not take him at his word?
 
what a great write up. thanks for posting this, very well put.
 
+James Pisano The currency stuff is spot on. The Chinese are already trading oil in yuan, not dollars. We've flooded the world's monetary base with so many dollars that its really become a mad rush to see whose currency devalues the most.
 
Please share, +Stacey Spence . I posted privately last week because I wanted to avoid troll rush, but I intended to post public at some point. This is some point.
 
Great job +James Pisano !!
I plan to share this everywhere I can. You have covered every issue well and the direction our country is heading is very dire. I fear by the time Obama is done with his four more years, it will be too late and we will all be equally poor and oppressed. I believe we need to take action before that happens and before 2014 and 2016!

Sadly, like others I have my doubts those who re-elected this moron will not learn from their mistakes, but am hopeful if we fall completely they will wakeup, but fear that by then it will be too late. I think we need to organize against the media and take back the message. I also think we need to take back the message in schools where our children are being taught about social justice, anti-capitalism, and distorted versions of history rather than the facts. Those who do not know their history are doomed to repeat it.  

My Solutions/Ideas To Change Direction

1) I don't know exactly how we can go after the media other than boycotting sponsors of the liberal propagandists or a class action lawsuit by we the people organized by the tea party movement?? They need to be sued for media malpractice and being complicit in keeping the truth from the public, not vetting Obama properly, protecting him from the scandals surround his admin from fast&furious to Benghazi, Solyndra/green energy loans,etc. If we are successful in a class action lawsuit, I am hopeful their broadcasting license are revoked and conservative media and new media can take over and get the truth to the American people and the world. 

2)To change/reform education we need more conservatives teaching, acting in leadership roles in the system from school boards, to the administration. We have let the liberals take control for far too long and they now not only control the education system and curriculum but our Universities where many vulnerable young minds are being taught to accept the liberal ideology, social justice, anti-capitalism, etc. Many are also taught antisemitism and this is another reason so many young support Gaza/Hamas rather than our ally Israel. They are not getting the truth and they are not learning from history and about true history, but a revised version of history distorted by the liberal/progressive/Marxists running our schools/universities.

I believe the distortions of the liberal media, voter fraud, [http://obamavoterfraud.com] illegal voters through Obama's backdoor amnesty/DREAM Act& foreign donations, as well as lack of photo ID laws allowed Obama to win re-election. Not to mention the brainwashed/misinformed voters who have been taught otherwise in our schools/universities.  I know everyone can't home-school so homeschooling as an alternative can not be the only option.

We must take back our education system and not only improve the system, but control the message.
All of these things need to change before Conservatives and the intentions of our founders will be fulfilled again. We have slowly been moving away from those traditional values&morals thanks to the corrupt/biased media and education system. Until we take those back we may never be able to win this fight without total destruction, but by then it might be too late to ever recover. I hope we can somehow do something now and before 2014 to change the message and take back control of the media and education system. Otherwise, we will be doomed to tyranny, the status of a third world country,militarily&economically, and the American Dream will be no more.

If you have other ideas and a way to organize with the tea party movement to pursue a class action lawsuit against the corrupt media or change our school system or otherwise, please share and contact me.  Hopefully we can all work together to start a citizens action group that can take back our country without violence or the need for another civil war or declaration of independence.

Thanks for posting this and helping to raise others awareness of what is destroying our country. 
 
Absolutely, +Patty Garza . Conservatism's biggest problem isn't ideology; during this election cycle, in every race where Conservatism battled Liberalism head on and was effectively communicated, Conservatism won the day. We don't lack resolve. We lack representation willing to campaign on Conservatism instead of the baser emotions of human beings. Reason shall win the day in every contest it is employed. Sadly, this cycle, if wasn't employed often enough.
 
Thank you, +Peter Bromberg . I appreciate that quite a bit. It just goes to show, education isn't everything. On paper I'm usually the "dumbest" guy in any room!
 
The NEA member professor who, to get his job, only had to be smart enough to memorize and repeat back liberal orthodoxy?
 
Thanks, +Mark Sumrell. I just call them like I see them. I don't see a lot of good in near term. Lets work to make the long term much better.
 
I have to say, everyone, I'm very pleased with the response to this post. I fully expected to have this post troll rushed when I wrote it the first time on the 7th. There hasn't been a single response that has been negative, unless someone I've blocked is commenting. Based on the responses, though, I don't know that to be the case.

Thank you all for your feedback. I'm encouraged by the number of shares, and I hope to have the opportunity to write more in this vein in the future.
 
If you don't have a blog, now is the time. :D
 
Funny you should mention that. I've been invited to write on one blog, and this has made me think of opening up an old one I let retire due to a deployment. I never started up again, but it may be high time to do just that.
 
I've postponed commenting on this for a long time, because I don't want to be the rain on everybody's else's parade. But my conscience demands I speak, obnoxious as my message is.

First off, understand that I largely agree with your views. We need freedom at home and the strength (fiscal and military) and respect (diplomatic and economic) to protect ourselves and our allies (especially threatened allies, like Israel and Taiwan). I am not trying to shoot down your ideas.

But almost that entire post is declarative statements without evidence backing it up. People who agree with your declarations agree with your conclusions, and people who don't don't. The choir loves your sermon, but you're not going to convert anybody that way. That's the difference between the 80s and today: Reagan converted people, and today we preach to the choir.

Many of your statements feel true, but are only one of several interpretations of the data. Take the deficit. Yes, some $4T has been added to the national debt during Obama's first term. On the other hand, Obama did inherit a financial crisis economy and if you measure the side of the deficit to GDP, deficits have fallen more in the past three years (2009-2012) than in any other 3-year period since the post-WW2 disarmament.
http://news.investors.com/blogs-capital-hill/112012-634082-federal-deficit-falling-fastest-since-world-war-ii.htm
If you're going to persuade people to (y)our way of thinking, you need to go into detail about exactly why straight dollars added to the debt are a better measure of fiscal responsibility than deficits as a % of GDP. And, because you're right, you can be absolutely certain that the proof exists to be found and demonstrated true.

Starting a blog is a great idea! Use this post (perhaps modified so it is not two separate versions) as your mission statement and follow it up with posts demonstrating those statements one at a time, with sources and data (ideally from sources above any possible claim have a right-wing bias). Don't just make the claims and leave it at that, but overwhelmingly prove it beyond any reasonable doubt. Commit to this, and I'll put in hours upon hours helping you research at no cost, just for the love of conservatism.
 
+Brady Postma , you're right. I don't research well. Most of that stems from my lack of time to do so (more often than I like) and the fact that I have never really researched much if anything, having never attended a real college.

You've got yourself a deal, though. The primary causative factor for the housing crisis that cascaded through our economy like wrecking ball, was the Community Reinvestment Act of 1976, and the cumulative effect of political monkeying with it year after year for decades. The culmination of all of this political social and economic engineering resulted in trillions of dollars personal wealth being destroyed over the course of what seemed like a short amount of time, all for the sake of political power. Americans suffered and the Left effectively, though wrongly, was able to make the majority of the public believe the banks caused the problem.

I've researched this subject because as a home owner I wanted to understand why I needed to prove I didn't need the money I was asking to borrow before the bank allowed me to borrow it, but if I were to have been a Hispanic woman who was unemployed and drawing welfare, employment and income verification may very well have been ignored, let alone anyone asking if I were a citizen.

Agree that what I wrote was based on opinion instead of fact. I needed a base to start with add I begin writing again. If you want to help, I'll gladly work with you to flesh out my opinion pieces with your helpful research. Maybe along the way I can learn how to research for myself.
Lance G
+
1
2
1
 
+Brady Postma "On the other hand, Obama did inherit a financial crisis economy and if you measure the side of the deficit to GDP, deficits have fallen more in the past three years (2009-2012) than in any other 3-year period since the post-WW2 disarmament."

First of all, Barack Obama as senator voted for every bit of the spending that led to the financial crisis economy "he inherited." He still has the audacity to still complain to this day "day one when I took office, I inherited a 1 trillion dollar deficit...and now I've got to clean up this mess."
BS! He voted for 845 billion of that 1 trillion dollar deficit in bailouts and stimulus. But the kicker is he thinks 'cleaning up the mess' is drinking more poision that got us sick in the first place.

Afa your comment about "deficits have fallen more in the past 3 years. First of all GDP is piss poor 1.7% so that skews the numbers afa comparing it to deficit. But, yes we have slid afa deficit spending. But from what? The Pike's Peak of deficit baseline of 2009?!?

It's like digging a hole 100 feet down, and once we arrive at the bottom, the head digger says "okay instead of continuing our average of digging 10 feet a day, we are now going to dig only 8 feet per day." Hell we are 100 feet deep in crappy monatary policy and we don't have anyone in power saying "stop!! We have to begin climbing up again!"
 
Research 101 (short version):
1) Says who?
2) Logic 101
Yes, it takes a lot of time. That can't be helped.

Long version:
1) All evidence starts with people who saw it for themselves or do the research themselves. These are called Primary Sources. Experts (like historians, judges, or scientists) who study and compile Primary Sources into summaries are Secondary Sources. Everyone else (including you and Wikipedia) are Tertiary ("TER-she-air-ee") Sources.

Never trust a Tertiary source for facts. Ever. They are only as trustworthy as their sources. This is true even if they've been right before.

Primary sources are wrong sometimes. Assuming they're not intentionally lying, about one in ten is just plain wrong, more often for small details and less often for big stuff.

Secondary sources are only as good as their methodology. Unless you can prove the logic flawed, the credentials of the studies can be ranked. Peer reviewed scientific studies are the best, then studies by Ph.Ds, then other reports by other experts. Big-name Universities (especially the Ivy League) and government data trump most other sources  Leftists won't trust avowed right-wing sources, and right-wingers won't trust avowed left-wingers.

2) There are three kinds of valid logic:
Deductive logic says that A always means B, and A is true. Thus, B is true. It is perfect logic, the only possible source of logical certainty.
Inductive logic says A usually means B, and A is true. Thus, B is probably true. This is statistics. The easiest lie in the world is confusing likely truth with certain truth; That's what is meant by the famous quote, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics."
Abductive logic is speculation or educated guessing. It says A can cause B and we see B. So maybe we should check for A. This is the reason to investigate, or a cause of reasonable doubt. Abduction is how we look for alternatives.

Anything else is a fallacy, a logical mistake. The most common are: a) red herring, where an argument changes the topic of conversation away from losing points; b) ambiguity, where the thing that is true and the thing that needs to be true for the argument to make sense are mistakenly believed to be the same thing; c) cherry-picking, where people only consider the 1 in 10 sources that are wrong (but agree with them) while ignoring the 9 in 10 that are right (but disagree), and d) false dilemma, where the situation is portrayed as a choice between only some (bad?) options,while ignoring other (better?) options.

To avoid these mistakes, a) stay on point, b) be clear and precise, c) consider lots of sources, and assume that the majority of them are correct at the same time, and d) look for other possible choices.

Sources that are fundamentally illogical don't count for you or against you. Those points still have to be proven by valid sources.
 
+Lance G I agree, that source I provided shows that the economy was crap 4 years ago, not that it is any good today. But leftists can use sources like that to say "It's not great, but it's so much better than when Obama took office! He's done remarkably well, considering what he's had to work with!" We have to focus on the weak parts of that claim, like the Democratic President/Senate/Congress all at once for (a portion of) the first two years, or the fact that employment as a proportion of population isn't up at all, or that deficits and employment are even worse than the economists who prescribed Obama's policy claimed they would be with no action. And we can't just say these things, we have to prove them. We have to go deeper into the proof than the other side does.

+James Pisano Thanksgiving is going to make researching much today kinda difficult, but I'll have some info for you this weekend.
 
That looks like a nice list of logical fallacies, +Brady Postma. Do you think any of them might apply to your statement above that "if you measure the side of the deficit to GDP, deficits have fallen more in the past three years (2009-2012) than in any other 3-year period since the post-WW2 disarmament."? I guess one or two of them might, because the assertion strains credulity.
Lance G
 
"And we can't just say these things, we have to prove them "

That is true! So true.
 
I don't expect anyone to put work into anything today. I'm mobile only, so there you go...
 
+Phil Nelson The assertion seems bizarre, but that is because of how it measures. It starts measuring in 2009, immediately after a huge drop in GDP and a huge increase in deficits. It measures by comparing deficits to GDP. It is technically true, but the specific timing of the comparison exaggerates the gains of those three years because it compares to the worst time since the Great Depression, not to "normal" by any definition.

So, cherry-picking. That one data point does not prove everything, and the majority of economic data says something else.
 
Some points about the Community Reinvestment Act:
1) It was first signed into law in 1977, not 1976.
2) It was originally intended to end "redlining" (that is, to end the practice of denying individuals loans because their neighbors had bad credit). That's pretty sensible; I'd even call it a conservative goal because it recognizes the individual rather than the collective.
3) In the 90s, there was a decided push to use CRA to counteract racial discrimination in lending. The following CATO article says there isn't much empirical evidence of racial discrimination in lending (the lead study claiming so was audited and 57% of their data found to be flawed in some respect), but it was (and still is) popularly believed to be happening.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv17n4/vmck4-94.pdf
4) Both parties supported and expanded CRA, with even Bush raising the high-water mark to qualify as low-income under CRA by 20% in 2005.
5) The Federal Reserve did some heavy research into whether the CRA was an important factor in the subprime mortgage crisis. Data from their Dec 2008 report (notice that Bush was still in office) makes it look like CRA probably accounted for about 6-12% of the bad loans and less than 2% of the foolish, overvalued reselling of those loans.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20081203a.htm

I'm not claiming any conclusions yet. That's just some of the stuff I've found so far.
 
My understanding is that the law was used as a hammer by individual Representatives and Senators who saw discriminating lending practices used by a bank (or wanted to punish it, which may have become more common than actually finding discrimination). Congress would direct the Fed to withhold loan guarantees to banks identified as discriminatory without investigating the actual case, unless the banks capitulated. The smaller banks had no choice... During the housing boom they couldn't build enough capital fast enough without the Fed loans to keep up with demand, so they wrote what they knew to be bad loans in order to continue being competitive. Sub prime lending ended up being the majority of the loan products written, regardless of the credit worthiness of the customer, because the majority of buyers were seeing stupid cheap money without realizing that when an ARM resets up the payment can be crushing.

The housing bust was a result of a foreclosure bomb that was created by the banks in response to stimulus from Congress and the Fed, as well as the financial markets realizing that derivatives were often more profitable than good faith mortgage backed securities. It was more lucrative to bet against people being able to pay off their loans because the laws had been leveraged in such a way as to make writing loans a losing business.

This is my understanding of what happened in the give years leading up to the bust. I have not had time to research this yet, but anecdotal evidence gleaned from the banks I spoke with while purchasing my home seems to support this line of thought.
Lance G
+
3
4
3
 
+Brady Postma the key words you said in point number 5 was the Federal Reserve did some heavy research. Not exactly an independent party doing the research there. The findings of their report is complete myth. I'm on mobile, but I would point you towards Edward J Pinto's testimony before the Financial Services Committee in 2009. He was the former chief credit officer of Fannie Mae (1987-1989), and expert in designing sustainable affordable housing programs. He and another lady essentially married Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the CRA. His testimony is stunning. It made me mad knowing what federal bureaucrats did to our mortgage programs.

Here's just a snippet of his testimony.

"...what caused the real estate bubble and subsequent mortgage and financial meltdown. I have reviewed over 40,000 pages of documents. The process relative to estimating CRA lending volumes and loan performance was particularly difficult and opaque.
I give you this background because if Gale were here today, she would tell you that the federal bureaucrats have done it again, but this time on a much more massive scale. Because of CRA and Fannie and Freddie’s (the GSEs”) affordable housing goals, “American Nightmare of Foreclosure” has spread to virtually every congressional district of these United States."

The CRA was huge. Clinton's housing secretary among other bureaucrats revived the monster. Politically correct BS that brought our nation down to its knees.
 
My point #5 is one secondary source. Roughly 1 in 10 secondary sources is wrong. Maybe this one is wrong, or maybe not. More research will tell. I said I wasn't done, and I meant it.

Even my point #5 says CRA is worth tens of billions of dollars worth of the financial crisis. Anyone who says CRA is harmless has to argue with that.

Here's an anti-CRA source I'm not done with yet. Take comfort from it:
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2009-06-27/wall_street/30009234_1_mortgage-standards-lending-standards-mortgage-rates/
Add a comment...