"In every foresight or forecasting exercise, there are two overarching tensions:
• The more certain and detailed the forecast, the more people will accept it and believe it to be useful.
•The more certain and detailed the forecast, the less likely it is to happen.
This is the foresight paradox: you can be completely accurate, or you can be completely engaging, but you can't be both. As a result, every forecast (or scenario, or prediction) has to find the right balance between the two, trading off likelihood for believability."