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Hiroshi Hishida
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Helping clients navigate the turbulent business cycles...
Helping clients navigate the turbulent business cycles...

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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that in the first quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 1.15% quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate, up from the previous estimate of 0.67%. This was close to the North Star Forecast of 1.32%. The growth rate was a higher than most economists were projecting. The average estimate of 50 economists surveyed in The Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey was 0.89%.

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.09% year over year growth (1.38% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.09% year over year growth (1.39% QoQ) up from last week's reading of 2.06%.

US Stocks were up as the S&P 500 hit a new record high this week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 83.1% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 78.5% chance last week). 

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.13% percentage points to 2.74%, the highest it has been since July 2014. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.88%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/05/charting-last-week-522-52617.html

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The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.10% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.06% year over year growth the same as last week's reading.

Bond prices were mostly up and stock prices were slightly down for the week as volatility returned. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 78.5% chance of a rate hike by June (the same chance as the two last weeks). 

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.62%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.18%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/05/charting-last-week-515-51917.html


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The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.09% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.06% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 2.07%.

Stocks were mostly down for the week while bond prices were up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 78.5% chance of a rate hike by June (the same chance as last week). 

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.18% percentage points to 2.64%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.42%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/05/charting-last-week-58-51217.html


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The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.46% and is 0.22% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.32%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets.

I posted some more charts on my blog:
http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/05/international-leading-indicators-may.html
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The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.08% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.07% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 2.03%.

Stocks were mixed for the week while bond prices down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying two more rate hikes in 2017 with a 78.5% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 66.6% chance last week). 

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.39%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/05/charting-last-week-51-5517.html


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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that in the first quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 0.67% quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate. This was very close to the North Star Forecast of 0.74%. The growth rate was a lower than most economists were projecting. The average estimate of 60 economists surveyed in The Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey was 1.42%. 58 of the economists predicted higher growth ranging from 0.8% to 3.4%. One estimated 0.6% and one 0.7%. The North Star Forecast for next quarter is 1.84%. This is lower than all 60 economist's predictions which average 2.8% ranging from 2% to 4%.

Stocks were up for the week while bond prices were mostly down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying two more rate hikes in 2017 with a 66.6% chance of a rate hike by June.
 
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.17% percentage points to 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.39%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/04/the-u.html


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The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.94% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.97% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 2.01%.

Stock and bond prices were mostly up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 54.8% chance of a rate hike by July.
 
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.29%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.49%

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/04/charting-last-week-417-42117.html

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The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.13% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.01% year over year growth down unchanged from last week's reading.

Stock prices were down and bond prices were up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 57.8% chance of a rate hike by June.
 
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.09% percentage points to 2.29%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.27%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/04/charting-last-week-410-41417.html


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The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.96% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.01% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 2.02%.

Stock and bond prices were mostly down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 70.9% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 58.7% chance last week) and another rate hike in December.
 
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased to 2.20%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.32%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.jp/2017/04/charting-last-week-43-4717.html

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On Thursday the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the fourth quarter GDP growth rate (YoY) from 1.90% to 1.96%. This is very close to the North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2.02% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.02% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 2.00%.

Stock and bond prices were mostly up the week while bond prices were mostly. The Fed is talking about the possibility of four rate hikes in 2017, although Wall Street is still pricing in three rate hikes. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 58.7% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 46.6% chance last week) and another rate hike in December.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.32%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2017/04/charting-last-week-327-33117.html
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