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Hiroshi Hishida
Works at North Star Capital Management
Attended University of Oregon
Lives in Burlingame, CA
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 3.98%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.44%.

With 49% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 2.08% compared to full year earnings last quarter.  This is largely due to the energy sector.  Excluding the energy sector earnings are still up.

Stock prices were down for the week.  Bond prices were mostly up for the week.  The Fed Funds futures are implying a 57.1% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.426% (up slightly from a 57.0% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.424%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.34%.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 3.15%.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/07/charting-last-week-720-72415.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 4.58%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.35%. 

Stock prices were mostly up for the week despite a lot of volatility.  The big exception was Emerging Markets which was down 3.4% for the week and is now down over 10% year over year.  The Greek stock market is down 59% year over year.  The Chinese stock market has lost a third of its value since June but is still up year over year.  The Fed Funds futures are implying a 50% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.38% (up from a 47% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.37%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Wednesday.  11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices.  The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets.  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.42% and is 0.09% percentage points higher than last month.  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for seven months in a row after falling steadily for ten months.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.38%. 

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/07/charting-last-week-76-71015.htm
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.29% percentage points to 4.65%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.43%. 

Stock prices took a hit earlier in the week after Greece rejected a cash for reform proposal.  The stock market recovered some of the losses mid-week.  The Fed Funds futures are implying a 47% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.37% (down from a 57% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.42%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/07/charting-last-week-629-7215.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.86% percentage points to 5.15%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.17%. 

US stock prices were up for the week while International stocks were down.  Bond prices were up for the week as expectations for a rate hike were pushed back approximately a month after the Fed's June Meeting this week.  The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 50 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.38% (down  from a 68 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.50%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.07% percentage points to 2.33%.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.77%.  

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/06/charting-last-week-615-61915.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.30% and is 0.06% percentage points higher than last month.  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for six months in a row after falling steadily for ten months.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.70%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today.  13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices.  The Leading Indices decreased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. 

I have posted some graphs on my blog:

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-leading-indicators-june.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.22% percentage points to 4.80%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.26%.

Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mostly up.  The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.43% (down from a 62 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.46%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.  With 98% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.4% year over year.  This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.20% percentage points to 2.33%.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.79%.  On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/05/charting-last-week-526-52915.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.53% percentage points to 4.05%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.51%.

Stock prices were up for the week.  The Nasdaq 100 was up 5.5% for the week led by Google which was up 16% on Friday after posting strong earnings.  This was an increase of $65 billion in market cap, the largest one day dollar change in history. The $65 billion gain in market cap is bigger than the valuations of over 400 companies in the S&P 500.  The Fed Funds futures are implying a 57% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.42% (up from a 50% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.38%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.34% and is 0.08% percentage points lower than last month.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.13%. 

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/07/charting-last-week-713-71715.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.42% and is 0.09% percentage points higher than last month.  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for seven months in a row after falling steadily for ten months.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.38%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today.  11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices.  The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. 

I have posted some graphs on my blog:

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/07/international-leading-indicators-july.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.21% percentage points to 4.94%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.43%. 

Stock prices were down slightly for the week while bond prices took a bigger hit.  The Fed Funds futures are implying a 57% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.42% (up from a 50% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.38%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.09% percentage points to 2.42%.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.90%.  

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/06/charting-last-week-622-62615.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.14% percentage points to 4.29%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.22%. 

Stock prices were up marginally for the week while bond prices were mixed.  The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 68 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.502% (up slightly from a 67 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.500%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.06% percentage points to 2.27%.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.77%.  

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/06/charting-last-week-68-61215.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.37% percentage points to 4.44%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.22%.

Stock prices were mostly down for the week.  Bond prices were down for the week as the 10 Year Treasury rose to 2.41%, the highest since last October.  The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 63 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.50% (up from a 57 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.43%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.   

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/06/charting-last-week-61-6515.html
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Hiroshi Hishida

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The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.81% percentage points to 4.58%.  The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.26%. 

Stock prices were mixed for the week while bond prices were down.  The S&P 500 inched farther into record territory.  With 97% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.4% year over year.  This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago.  The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 62 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.46% (up from a 50 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.39%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.13%.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.01%. 

I have posted some charts reviewing last week.

http://northscm.blogspot.com/2015/05/charting-last-week-518-52215.html
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Education
  • University of Oregon
    Finance, 1989 - 1994
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Helping clients navigate the turbulent business cycles...
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North Star Capital Management: Investment Advisor helping clients navigate the turbulent business cycles.
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  • North Star Capital Management
    Investment Advisor, 2011 - present
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Burlingame, CA
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