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Hardanalytics
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Trading and Alternative Investing R&D with a Forex Core
Trading and Alternative Investing R&D with a Forex Core

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The is a post about ‪#‎newstrading‬. The way I am considering the upcoming ‪#‎FOMC‬ US rate decision, this evening is this: firstly, since it is unknown whether rates will actually be raised, how may the market react to this. If a certain outcome is expected then the market will tend to price it in.

But even if something is priced in, the market may still react to it. In this case, given that a) interest rates have not been raised for a long time and b) there is no certainty about the decision, what kind of reaction might be expected.

News reactions can be: a) nothing really happening b) very directional moves which may stall later as a support/resistance point and c) oscillations, amongst others.

Even if a move is directional there may be strong swings before it or after. It is also worth considering from the charts where a pair is, in terms of its possible freedom to move.

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My updated Trading Strategy and Commentaries Page:

Volatile trading landscapes: value shifts around support/resistance and switches downward pressure for upwards pressure.

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It is an interesting question in news trading, the extent to which events immediate to the news event can boost value, over broader market concerns.

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Just for fun: a little animated version of some images I made for the site, generated by Picasa:

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The Forex page on my website with an update: "The Flow of Valuation".

We can ask do news events provide a pointer to a state of the #Forex   market. The interesting question is perhaps whether this is a pointer to a future state, that is the intensity of the reaction, based on money flow, reveals. Another possibility is that this obscures the direction of the market.

If we consider stability in forex pairs, we can note that there seems to be a cross market stability presently. We can note that FOMC as a news event can inject instability into pairs, but the pairs then seem to restore their stability. If we define stability, though as strength of directionality, we can say that the FOMC effect may be an one on directionality, over time.

If one considers that each forex pair has its own ecosystem, it may not be so necessary to have a sense of a potential range of value of one part of the pair. But one may consider certain market environments where this is more the case, and less the case.
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