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Hardanalytics

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My updated Trading Strategy and Commentaries Page:
Developing trading strategies to trade on the market
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Hardanalytics

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Hardanalytics

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The Forex page on my website with an update: "The Flow of Valuation".
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Hardanalytics

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If one considers that each forex pair has its own ecosystem, it may not be so necessary to have a sense of a potential range of value of one part of the pair. But one may consider certain market environments where this is more the case, and less the case.
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Hardanalytics

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It is an interesting question in news trading whether there is any kind of determinism in the initial reaction: that is, can we look at market conditions at the time of the announcement as setting conditions from time to time that constrain possible valuation outcomes.

Can we see the following valuation ranges and oscillations as the market working through those constraints then, to that which is consistent with what underlying value there may be, at the time.

I say this because news trading makes for surprising outcomes, but also outcomes which make you think, after event, well, how appropriate. However one might note, that the underlying value may not be actually set except during the event.
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Hardanalytics

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Volatile trading landscapes: value shifts around support/resistance and switches downward pressure for upwards pressure.
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It is an interesting question in news trading, the extent to which events immediate to the news event can boost value, over broader market concerns.
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Hardanalytics

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Just for fun: a little animated version of some images I made for the site, generated by Picasa:
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We can ask do news events provide a pointer to a state of the #Forex   market. The interesting question is perhaps whether this is a pointer to a future state, that is the intensity of the reaction, based on money flow, reveals. Another possibility is that this obscures the direction of the market.
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If we consider stability in forex pairs, we can note that there seems to be a cross market stability presently. We can note that FOMC as a news event can inject instability into pairs, but the pairs then seem to restore their stability. If we define stability, though as strength of directionality, we can say that the FOMC effect may be an one on directionality, over time.
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Hardanalytics

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If one is trading on very short term frames, one can note that the direction is, say, up, but that there is a growing uncertainty in that directionality. That is, the pair continues up for a time, but then proceeds to fall in value. An interesting question is perhaps how this translates to longer time frames in forex.
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Hardanalytics

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What would be the conditions for a little irrational exuberance to appear in the forex market. One might note that if it is appearing in the equity market it might appear also in USD/JPY during equity hours.

But one might ask, would it be clearer there than in the equity market, especially if it is a little irrational exuberance - something created partly by reference to past irrational despondency, coming and going and partly by the potential for movement.

Perhaps one can sum up the apparent symmetry between some forex pairs and the equity market as not so much a mirror as the effect of drops of rain on a lake.

It reveals precise things about the distributed flood of water, which may or may not have any utility, depending perhaps on how small or very large one is. 

In all events could it make for something that is like volatility but slightly more dependable (i.e. a potential for value growth, if that is the expected outcome, in general or in particular).
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Have them in circles
59 people
MR THANH's profile photo
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Trading and Alternative Investing R&D with a Forex Core
Introduction
Exploration of market functionality based around forex and changes in the S&P500. Please note there is no advice given here and no trading or investing recommendations, it is opinion and explorative commentary. Please look at the disclosure, terms and risk pages given on my website: http://www.hardanalytics.com, which apply here.