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Gregory Geller
Works at Los Alamos National Laboratory
Lived in Miami, Florida
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Hmm...posted this before but it didn't format correctly. Trying again:

Just played this hand in a team match on BBO:

Sitting W:

A7
A943
A8752
T2

Auction goes

E S W N
------------------
1c P 1d P
2c P ?

What is your bid? What is the right contract?
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Nicolas FRANCOIS's profile photoGregory Geller's profile photoPeiyush Jain's profile photo
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+Gregory Geller 

Thinking about 3NT is good as it will tend to be a better contract than 5C is most cases, but bidding it immediately is not correct:.

3NT is better played from your partner's side. Imagine partner with Qxx, Kxx, x, AQJxxx. 3NT form your side can easily go down.

If you bid 2H, partner might bid 2NT with a spade stopper or if they do not have a spade stopper, bid 3C, in which case you can hope clubs are running and bid 3NT now.

You can probably try a deceptive 2S bid (instead of 2H) to try and get opponents to not lead spades and let partner bid NT without a spade stopper (or bid 3NT yourself at your next turn).

btw, there is a chance of making 4H on a 4-3 fit, but I don't see how you can get there even when it is right.
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Gregory Geller

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Why it is 99.9% certain electoral fraud was committed for Hillary Clinton
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Fraud in Massachusetts Democratic primary?

CNN adjusted the exit poll to match the primary results after the fact.
Richard Charnin Mar.8, 2016 (updated for AAPOR link) Late changes to the MA Democratic Primary exit poll indicate that the election was likely stolen. As always, the exit poll was adjusted to match…
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Gregory Geller

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+Steve S This is getting boring. 

You are incapable of having an honest discussion. You act as if you don't even know what the meaning of the word "lie" is.

This is the last thing I will say to you on this subject because speaking with you in obviously a waste of time:

I said that implying Sanders says he will do things overnight, as you did, is a lie. Meaning that he DID not in fact say or imply he would do anything overnight.

Your response was to say I am lying because "single-payer health care." 

You are either an idiot or a tool. I won't waste my breathe on you any longer either way.
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Gregory Geller

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Steve S
 
I no longer follow links to usuncut. It's a crap source.
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Gregory Geller

Discussion  - 
 
Question for libertarians:

Given that current society is largely influenced by a long history of violence initiated by the state--such as the destruction of native American people and culture, slavery, destruction of unions and other anti-labor movements, banksterism, etc--how would a libertarian deal with that history moving forward?

Would you address those grievances by acknowledging that they are the result of a past initiation of violence and advocate for reasonable reparations? Or, would you in effect wipe the slate clean and say that the starting line is now and from here out the initiation of violence will no longer be tolerated but we will not address violence initiated or suffered by our ancestors?
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Gregory Geller's profile photoTheodore Minick's profile photoErik Buchanan's profile photoKenneth Cochran's profile photo
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+Gregory Geller
I'll try rephrase it then.

No person is responsible for the situation into which they are born. They are only responsible for their own actions and reactions. This means that if you are born into poverty it is no one's responsibility but your own if you spend your entire life and die still in poverty.

That being said, your actions and reactions affect more than just yourself. You are also responsible for the effect your actions have on others.

In short you have a responsibility to both yourself and those around you that you can affect. This is a deeply personal responsibility and no one can delegate this responsibility to someone else.

Far too often I see people that take no responsibility for their own actions. Whether those actions be poor decisions that result in bankruptcy or whether they be ignoring the plight of another person in need.

At least, that's my own personal philosophy.
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Gregory Geller

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Bernie is still viable and Hillary is worse than Trump. You are being manipulated by carefully crafted imagery. The Trump family and the Clinton family are friends. Trump is a New York liberal pretending to be racist. He is playing a role to support Hillary, to make people believe she is progressive by pretending to be conservative. But Hillary is farther right than Bush. Don't be fooled. The only election that matters is the one happening right now in the democratic primary. It's Bernie or more war. It's Bernie or more Poverty. Hillary is as corrupt as they come. Don't let the corporate media masters fool you. Remember what Malcolm X said: "To make people run towards a fox, show them a wolf." This is what they are doing. Trump is just a character to make you sigh a breath of relief when they give you the warmonger and Wall Street shill as your new President. Join us in spreading the truth about her. She and her husband have destroyed millions of lives. They are not progressive. Please please please think deeply about all this. Don't fall for the stage managed show. Once it clicks it will become obvious. The real battle is not between the Democrats and Republicans. It's between the corporate state (Big oil and Wall Street) and the people. The two parties are both corrupt and take their orders from their corporate managers. If you allow them to convince you into "lesser of two evils" thinking, they win.
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Bernie is not anti war.
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Gregory Geller

Discussion  - 
 
Question:  How can you determine the distance of a cosmologically distant object?
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Luca Ciucci's profile photoGregory Geller's profile photoBruce Elliott's profile photoShane Sweeney's profile photo
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What you are missing is spectrum analysis. The spectra of glowing objects have dark thin lines which become apparent when the spectrum is projected (magnified). These dark lines appear in predictable patterns and are caused by photochemical absorption of certain frequencies of light by certain molecules. By identifing the pattern and determining how much it is moved to the red or the blue you can determine the relative velosity of the object to you.
Object motion independant of cosmic expansion is known as peculiar velocity. Almost all objects have their own relative local motion. The ratio of peculiar velocity to cosmological velocity decreases as distance increases. Thus the red shift of a comologically distant object say >2000MPc is composed of >98% comological expansion and only 0 - 2% peculiar motion. Compare the relative velocity of this distant object to the expansion constant and you can calculate the distance to the object with a scatter error of +- 2%.
Ref
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redshift
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Gregory Geller

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Blatant evidence of voting machine fraud in Chicago during the 2016 primary. Forward to 24:00 for the start of public comments.

This is important. 

It shows that voting not only doesn't matter, it is actually counter-productive. 

What do the "vote blue no matter what" people have to say about this?

https://youtu.be/OSNTauWPkTc
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Gregory Geller

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College-educated elites, on behalf of corporations, carried out the savage neoliberal assault on the working poor. Now they are being made to pay. Their duplicity—embodied in politicians such as Bill and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama—succeeded for decades. These elites, many from East Coast Ivy League schools, spoke the language of values—civility, inclusivity, a condemnation of overt racism and bigotry, a concern for the middle class—while thrusting a knife into the back of the underclass for their corporate masters. This game has ended.
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The Democrats are playing a very dangerous game by anointing Hillary Clinton as their presidential candidate. She epitomizes the double-dealing of the college-educated elites, those who speak the feel-your-pain language of ordinary men and women, who hold up the bible of political correctness, while selling out the poor and the working class to corporate power.
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There is only one way left to blunt the yearning for fascism coalescing around Trump. It is to build, as fast as possible, movements or parties that declare war on corporate power, engage in sustained acts of civil disobedience and seek to reintegrate the disenfranchised—the “losers”—back into the economy and political life of the country. This movement will never come out of the Democratic Party. If Clinton prevails in the general election Trump may disappear, but the fascist sentiments will expand. Another Trump, perhaps more vile, will be vomited up from the bowels of the decayed political system. We are fighting for our political life. Tremendous damage has been done by corporate power and the college-educated elites to our capitalist democracy. The longer the elites, who oversaw this disemboweling of the country on behalf of corporations—who believe, as does CBS Chief Executive Officer Leslie Moonves, that however bad Trump would be for America he would at least be good for corporate profit—remain in charge, the worse it is going to get.
College-educated elites, on behalf of corporations, carried out the savage neoliberal assault on the working poor. Now these elites are being made to pay. Their duplicity has brought them—and the rest of us—Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. - 2016/03/02
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Gregory Geller

Theory & Ethics  - 
 
So, I don't consider myself a Libertarian (at least not in the way most self-described Libertarians mean it). 

However, I am interested in starting a dialogue with Libertarians in order to find out exactly what you guys believe. 

I'm happy to read links to articles and even read recommended books but, honestly, I learn best by using the socratic method of asking and answering questions. 

So, with that in mind, here are a couple of initial questions I have for you all:

1) What do you believe is the relationship between government and corporate power? Do you believe the government pulls corporate strings to get what it wants, or do you believe that government is a tool of corporate power?

2) What is the role of fairness in your ethical schema? By fairness I mean something like the concept of getting what you deserve or not being  punished or rewarded for things that are out of your control.

This is the Internet. I tend to get argumentative at times. I'll try not to do that here. I've read the community guidelines and will do my best to adhere to them. I only ask that you do the same.

In particular (and I'm mentioning this because it's something I've witnessed over and over again during any discussion of politics/religion or any topic that people tend to be passionate about):

1. Try not to assume that you know what the other person believes just because they don't believe what you do. For example, I've been accused to being a Republican, Democrat, Communist, Statist, Leftist, Fascist, and every other -ist you can come up with. All without me stating a single belief that I hold (or very very few).

2. Allow people to change their mind or re-state something without insisting that they hold to their initial statement. Writing can be difficult. Words are inherently inaccurate and fuzzy. Sometimes something that is said comes out wrong or is easily misinterpreted. If someone makes that claim about something they said, it should be taken at face value and in good faith.

3. Try to give other people's arguments the benefit of the doubt by giving them the most generous interpretation. If someone says, for example, "Liberals don't want to confiscate guns," that doesn't mean they believe you can prove them wrong by showing one example of a so-called Liberal saying we ought to ban all guns. It's a general statement and not meant to be true for ALL Liberals, and should be treated as such. (BTW, this was just an example, I'm not claiming to be a Liberal or stating my beliefs regarding gun control.)

Of course, I ought to be held to the same standards that I am suggesting above and certainly don't mean to imply that I am exempt.

So, with that, I'm interested in hearing some of your responses to the questions above.

Thanks.
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Also, even though it's a cliché, Anthem by Ayn Rand is surprisingly good, and based in an interesting philosophical worldview.
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Gregory Geller

Economic concepts  - 
 
Question:

I have trouble understanding macro concepts when it comes to trade deficits and currency exchanges. I don't understand the relationship between them.

I'm reading a book right now and there's this passage:

"The problem with currency unions, as Argentina was to discover in the late 1990s and Europe in the aftermath of the Crash of 2008, is the simple fact of life that trade and capital flows can remain systematically unbalanced for decades, if not centuries.  Come what may, some regions within a country (e.g. the Stuttgart area in Germany, the Greater London area in Britain, or the Shanghai region in China) will always post a surplus in their trading with other regions (e.g. with eastern Lander, with Yorkshire, or with the western provinces of China). So it is with states within federations: California will never balance its trade with Arizona, and Tasmania will always be in deficit vis-a-vis Victoria and New South Wales. Given that these trade imbalances are chronic, something has to take the slack; something must give.

When each of these entities has its own currency, it is the exchange rate that gradually shifts in order to absorb the strain caused by the trade imbalances. Before the euro was established, Germany's persistent surplus vis-a-vis countries like Greece and Italy resulted in a gradual devaluation of the drachma and the lira relative to the Deutschmark. Thus balance was maintained, as the growing trade asymmetries were cancelled out by analogously deepening imbalances in the exchange rates."

I guess there's a bunch of things here I don't understand:

1) Are trade deficits/surpluses bad in and of themselves? For whom?

2) Pre-EU, when a country like Germany exported goods to Greece, the were paid in Deutschmarks or in Drachmae? 

3) If in Deutschmarks, how did Greece get Marks with which to pay?

4) If in Drachmae, then what does Germany do with those Drachmae if there is a permanent or semi-permanent trade imbalance? (I guess this is the problem). 

5) Why would a trade imbalance imply a pressure on respective currency exchange rates? E.g. why would the above scenario cause pressure on the Drachmae to become weaker relative to the DM?

Am I hopelessly confused?

Thanks.
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Peter Kelly's profile photoBill Igoe's profile photo
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Nothing mysterious. Think of currency as tradable coupons; just some countries favor one coupon over another. In fact prior to the 1900s, dollars were issued by independent banks and depending of the geographical location each bank's dollar issuances had different exchange rates due to local unfamiliarity.
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  • Los Alamos National Laboratory
    2014 - present
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