Romney’s last-minute surge in Illinois

After running the delegate math on the remaining primary states, +The New York Times' +Nate Silver has labeled tomorrow’s Illinois primary a “must win” for +Rick Santorum. With two-thirds of the population living in the traditionally more liberal Chicago metropolitan area, Santorum must perform well in the rural, typically more conservative-leaning areas of Illinois to beat +Mitt Romney (goo.gl/NBCkN).

We looked at in-state search volume for the last week for the remaining candidates. Over the past 24 hours, Romney has taken a slight lead over Santorum, although Santorum led the field throughout the previous week.

Who do you think will win tomorrow's primary in Illinois?
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23 comments
 
Well similar to the caucus' in Alabama and Mississippi Santorum might "win" Illinois, but Romney still comes out on top... The media is just very good at hiding that fact.
 
I disagree +James Salsman , ad click-throughs are not representative at all (and the search results have been shown to be in the past). Many people of specific persuasions never click on ads, and its quite obvious that a specific thinking pattern like this could be politically influenced.
 
I think Mitt Romney wins in Illinois. Public Policy Polling gives him a 15 point lead heading into tomorrow's contest. Santorum has always done well in rural districts, and that will probably remain true there, but it won't change the end result. Another point -- even if Santorum does well, he hasn't qualified to be on the ballot in four congressional districts, so Romney will continue to add to his delegate lead.
 
+Michael Babcock online ad click-throughs are a voluntary decision to spend time looking through additional information. I don't see how they can't be correlated with predisposition. I thought that we have established here that the search volume is not predictive. Is there a source to the contrary?
 
Only BC he's being forced down everyone's throat and has even stolen states from the only true choice Ron Paul
 
What problems do you have with Ron Paul's platform? It seems to lines up quite nicely with Conservative Principles...
 
+P. Warren Brown technically, Paul is a federal libertarian but a states rights authoritarian. See his We the People Act
 
Ron Paul is a Conservative Candidate. Why don't you "line up" behind him? If you want to win, that is....
 
Barry Goldwater Jr. has endorsed Ron Paul. Also, Ron Paul was one of the first to endorse Reagan. He went libertarian one year because the GOP nominated a east coast liberal neo-con Bush I. He is the most conservative in the race. Don't let the reason why "many folks" are voting for him, sway your vote. He only wants the Federal Gov out of the drug war cause it's best at the state level. What's so Not Conservative about wanting to do things not specific in the Constitution at the state level where they belong?
 
Ron Paul is in the Republican Party. You have yet to give me a fact that says he is not the most conservative in the race. Yes, mitt is a RINO. You are correct there. However, how is a big spender planned parenthood funder like Rick not a RINO too? If all conservatives could unite behind Paul we will bring those other people that support him for other reasons and win this. Or would you rather lose again just like we McCain?
 
Didn't Ron Paul run against Reagan?
 
Santorum is a liar. Specific about euthanasia in the Netherlands. What he is saying is 200% not true. Is this wat you want?!
 
+john newton Ron Paul ran against Bush in 1988. He endorsed Reagan. But then didn't like the deficit spending of the Reagan years.

+P. Warren Brown I don't understand your hangup on this being a "pure" Republican to be good enough to be on the ticket. By your standard, No one in the race should be allowed to be the Republican nominee. But, more importantly, it is a recipe to lose every single election. Republicans are only 27% of the voting public....
 
nobody gives a shit about Newt Gingrich.
 
I just voted! Ron Paul for President!
 
Well I don't know if these mean anything. I've searched Rick Santorum a lot more than Mitt Romney (Probably a 4-1 Ratio) even though I'm a Mitt supporter...
 
Where are the results for Puerto Rico?
 
+Kyle Friant Thanks but I wanted a bit more than that. I was more interested in +Buddy Roemer. But I was really just curious why the results are not posted at all in the first place.
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