I have been publicly predicting for well over 2 years now that if The Hill runs for President, she will win. This has made for animated, interesting, often heated and passionate conversation on those threads (which I have copied below for fun). But my personal interest in this particular subject matter, while appearing to be a political one, is in fact social, cultural and psychological rather than having to do with politics.
And while my interest may appear to have something to do with Democrats vs. Republicans (or any other party), or Liberals vs. Conservatives, or Big Money and election influence, or American political dynasties, either perceived or real...my interest emanates from having voted since I was 18, and from watching, analyzing, deconstructing and otherwise attempting to figure out why we vote the way we vote, why the pendulum swings the way the pendulum swings, and what issues, agendas and events are swept up in the Political Jet Stream that determines who becomes POTUS every four years (or eight, as seems to be the case in our recent past).
So let me make it clear at the outset that my interest is not about affection or disaffection for The Hill, it's about assessing where I think the train that is running down the track is going to end up and determining (Yes, IMHO) that it is going to end up at Hillary Clinton Union Station.
My reasoning is entirely unscientific. It has nothing to do with polls, or statistics or constituencies or political advisors. It has to do with something that no one wants to come out and say because it raises people's hackles - I think that Hillary Clinton is going to win because she's a woman.
Because, after 43 Presidents, since April 30, 1789 when George Washington took office at the age of 57 years old, 226 years of American Presidential History have gone by with a man at the helm and the time has come for a woman to take that helm.
While the average age of American Presidents on taking office is around 55, people love to say thatThe Hill is over the hill. Yet Ronald Reagan was 69, William Harrison was 68, James Buchanan 65, and George Bush Sr. 64. While there are those of us who think Clinton's age is entirely irrelevant (I am one of them), the real point is that I think American women singularly and collectively do not like being told they have a shelf life when it comes to their productivity and what they are capable of accomplishing. A woman's biological re-productivity may have a number attached to its shelf life, but her brain does not.
That said, I think it's important to note that the work force is quickly closing in on a 50/50 women/men mix. And we all know that there are more women getting higher degrees at the moment then men. And the number of women who are the main breadwinners for their families is increasing.
All of this is not to suggest that Hillary's gender matters more than her resume. But the particular blend, in this one woman's case, of her gender with a stunning resume is why I think she'll win. She's an indomitable survivor, like RBG (a/k/a Ruth Bader Ginsburgy), another person considered Way to Over the Hill to be sitting on SCOTUS. But I digress. A tad.
Representationally, when all of this is addd up, in spite of whether one loves her or hates her, whether one agrees with her politics or does not, whether one thinks she's still a Democrat or some new-fangled party as yet to be described, defined, deconstructed...the fact remains that her resume, entering the running, is unparalleled in American politics.
It's the sort of resume that a woman has to have to get anywhere. It's the reason that she would be running again when she's older, after she has survived every attack that has been hurled against her - because a woman's resume has to be
ten times as good, ten times as long in order to put her name on a ballot in the first place. We do not live in a country where having a female counterpart of young and swaggering Jack Kennedy is even remotely possible. His resume, as a candidate, paled compared to Hillary's.
And I'll wager that The Hill's resume is the kind that many American women wish they could amass without the fight that she had to put up with to get it: wife, mother, lawyer, 8 years as First Lady, 8 years as NY State Senator, 4 years as Secretary of State...author.
Presidential campaigns are normally run on foreign policy, on domestic policy, on tax policy (and a host of other sticky money-related issues, like whether the Social Security system will be done away with). But when I look around and talk to women at work, and to mothers, and daughters, and grandmothers, and women who are single or starting their own business, or divorced and going it alone with their kids...what I feel, see, and sense is a palpable shift in the voice that they want to represent them this time around. And after 226 years it just be might the voice of a woman.
No, it isn't a political assessment I'm making. And it most certainly isn't feminist. It's something far deeper and more complex than that.
It's a social assessment. A cultural, psychological and philosophical one. Call it a poetic assessment if you will.
Do I agree with Nate Cohn's inevitability assessment? Yes..but I've been saying it for a long, long time, and I didn't need graphs or statistic or pie charts or telephone polls to get there.P.S.
There are a lot of Hillary Clinton haters out there looking for a place to act out. Conversation is welcome, disagreement with me is welcome. But attacking me for posting this is not and I will not hesitate to delete hate comments. Just think of it as one of the many things that women hope will change in this country. Thank you.Since it's the last day of 2012,
December 31, 2012:https://plus.google.com/+GiselleMinoli/posts/2EUbtyrhyAmWhat an amusing gaggle of geezers,
June 30, 2013:https://plus.google.com/+GiselleMinoli/posts/KwahhxCjfjCIf Hillary Runs,
January 27, 2013:https://plus.google.com/+GiselleMinoli/posts/a2s3seYF7ifWhat a bunch of hooey,
December 16, 2014https://plus.google.com/+GiselleMinoli/posts/LCL35uvH3VL #HillaryClinton #POTUS #PresidentialElection2015 #GenderPolitics #GlassCeiling #GenderEquality