Bill Abrams

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Start a hangout

NOTE: I'm closing down this version of the experiment to fix some problems with the below image.

https://plus.google.com/105103058358743760661/posts/VK1e1e7qQEy

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Please help me run an experiment to test whether the

The three conditions for a group to be collectively intelligent are

1)

2)

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Individually, the probability of your guessing the right number of Cheerios is

I will let this experiment run

The ten people with the closest guesses will be featured prominently in that follow up post and I'll also highlight the people who shared the post in which those top ten guesses occurred as a way to recognize at least some of you for helping to ensure the diversity and decentralization of our guesses.

Thanks in advance for your help. I can't wait to see the results and share them with you.

Again, the three conditions for a group to be collectively intelligent are

http://www.amazon.com/The-Wisdom-Crowds-James-Surowiecki/dp/0385721706

And here's the Wikipedia article on "Wisdom of Crowds":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

Edited to note that these are, indeed,

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166 comments

Bill Abrams

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802

Ronnie Bincer

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Cameron Siguenza

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782

Matthew Boudinot

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562

Saravana Kumar

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Susanne Chang

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981

Liam Quin

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Let *N* be the number of cheerios. Let *v* be the number of vases. Let *v* be 1. Let *h* be the number of holes in the *N* cheerios. Let *h* equal *N* - *d* where *d* is the the number of defective pieces of cereal without holes. Let *L* be love. Let the approximate diameter of *V*, where *v* is the first vase, be six pieces of cereal, so that the total number *t* of pieces of cereal *c* on the top of the pile of cereal in the first vase, numbered zero, shall clearly be of the order of 3² π, and by virtue of the World of the Lord as Misinterpreted on Earth π = 3, so there would be 27 pieces of cereal on top, were it not for the fact they have holes between the pieces and do not all lie flat.

Guess there are 20 layers, giving 540 pieces. But the bottom*B* of the zeroth and only vase *V* is narrower than the top, and the shape irregular.

Let*n* be the number I first thought of. Let *n* be 327.

There are 327 pieces of cereal.

Eat one. Replace it.

There are still 327 pieces of cereal.

Guess there are 20 layers, giving 540 pieces. But the bottom

Let

There are 327 pieces of cereal.

Eat one. Replace it.

There are still 327 pieces of cereal.

Sureerat K.

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+Gideon Rosenblatt I'm sorry but your problem setup is an exercise in how to set up a problem to make it invalid as a test of "collective intelligence" and is rather away to spread the post/only do something about the "collection" of something.

By definition all you are doing is increasing the number of guesses to increase the probability that at least one with by chance be correct. Its the same principle whereby the probability of someone of the participants selecting the winning lottery number out of the set of possible numbers, grows higher with the number of ticket numbers selected and purchased.

That's not anything about collective intelligence, its just simple statistics 101/frequency (or perhaps marketing).

I.e., this has zero to do with testing collective intelligence.

By definition all you are doing is increasing the number of guesses to increase the probability that at least one with by chance be correct. Its the same principle whereby the probability of someone of the participants selecting the winning lottery number out of the set of possible numbers, grows higher with the number of ticket numbers selected and purchased.

That's not anything about collective intelligence, its just simple statistics 101/frequency (or perhaps marketing).

I.e., this has zero to do with testing collective intelligence.

Kevan Hayes

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I think it makes sense to approximate it as a cylinder, with the ideal diameter close to diameter halfway up the height of the vase. The weird ripples kind of cancel out, in terms of peaks and troughs. The vase on the left appears to be about 5 cheerio spans in diameter (by looking at the one cheerio that is face on). Based on that and a picture I drew, you could probably pack ~20 cheerios per layer, if a layer is 1 cheerio high (on the short side). There`s maybe ~25 such layers in total.

So i'd estimate about 500 cheerios

So i'd estimate about 500 cheerios

+Gideon Rosenblatt I felt good sharing and helping you collect intelligence.

Ken Caughlin

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1052

1600 Cheerios

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263

120

404

230.

98

377

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672

908

339

100

280

360

360

700

328

280

648

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You just dropped an entire Cheerios pack in the vase x)

You just dropped an entire Cheerios pack in the vase x)

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572

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480

308

425

216

1200

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321

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Oh my, will it finish soon? There's already a piece of statistical base with 5 x 500 posts, we want the prize now :-)

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1980

480

143

400

1040

145

130

185

540

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750

haru ayra

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347...cherios.....ur experimnts has flaws......not factoring second gessing or probability of roll play...thoery of inteligenc and mission objectve co-op in mass population

I'm a bad speller...I know this but to be heard dose not mean one needs the ability of speech

I'm a bad speller...I know this but to be heard dose not mean one needs the ability of speech

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575 (I've won a few of these guessing games in the past. Much harder when I can't hold the container in my hands.)

Neethu Wilson

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786

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555

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Very very pretty!!! are those glasses?

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I bet I am spot on ;-)

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1400

450 = (18*[35+15]/2)

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982

My best is 130

497

425

748

145

292

297

412

135

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155

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510

576

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612

300

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300 (approx 14 layers high, 7 Cheerios across at the top, so 14 x 7 x 3 (pi) = 294 so make it 300 and forget about the taper)

415

At least 256 and probably less than 768, so I'm guessing it's 512.

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Rahul Kejriwal

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Good one! What my game developer skills say:

573 (aproximately, of course).

See here why:

http://yfrog.com/ob5g8xp

573 (aproximately, of course).

See here why:

http://yfrog.com/ob5g8xp

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512

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367 (edit: I just scrolled up and saw +Mark Armstrong's calculation, I did similar to him)

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1650

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I think there are 2,880

477

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mike duvall

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314.1592653589793238462643383279502884197169399371058209749445923078164062862089986280348253421170679 …

526.

500

377

693

In an infinite universe all of these answers are true...

As an aside --- If Cheerios don't give you free cereal for life Mr +Gideon Rosenblatt for all this game-based marketing then theres no justice ;)

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635

Paul Smith

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Can you post a statistical chart of all the answers once you're done.

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450 - if those are 2 photos of the same jar, which is hard to tell. I assume we're not here to critique your photography skills. I tend to agree with all of the previous comments about the very shaky scientific premise of your "experiment", but it's a fun exercise.

480

I'm closing down this version of the experiment to fix some problems with the above image. Please go here instead:

https://plus.google.com/105103058358743760661/posts/VK1e1e7qQEy

https://plus.google.com/105103058358743760661/posts/VK1e1e7qQEy