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Garrett Goodenough
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Garrett Goodenough

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At the very least one of the Main Street banks are being open about the REAL economy.
The Royal Bank of Scotland has recommended its clients prepare for a “cataclysmic year,” as major stock markets could drop by a fifth and Brent oil could hit $16 a barrel.
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Garrett Goodenough

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Bloomberg - Swap Spreads Are Falling Again: Is China to Blame? http://bloom.bg/1mG93Gp
Swap spreads—rates charged for interest rate swaps—are dipping lower this week, resuming a much discussed trend from last year. Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway has more on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Garrett Goodenough

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Obama has a tear for US Gun laws but he is more than happy to supply guns and weapons to rebels from other countries to create chaos and through a terrible foreign policy has resulted in millions of murdered civilians and homelessness.
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My prediction is Oil will rise when a Republican cones into power. Yes just like that voilà... Its free markets after all... Wink wink.
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Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. - Samuel Johnson.
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The Commodity barameter CAT has taken a hit. 
We hoped yesterday's preview would soften the blow from today's CAT Q3 earnings which were clearly going to be ugly, and surely worse than consensus estimates. Moments ago we got said earnings and as expected, they were indeed far worse than expected, with CAT reporting adjusted EPS of $0.75 ($0.62 GAAP), below consensus estimate of $0.77, while revenue of $11.0 billion also missed expectations of $11.33.This takes place even as CAT repurchased $...
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King US Dollar headed North or South? There is some major consolidations and strong movements to suggest there is going to be a swing.
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Garrett Goodenough

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All that happened in 2008 to the same extent in August 2015 (as the corrections were coming in) were / are band aid treatments. As mentioned the Central Banks backstopping debt spreads and the broader market. If Central Banks intervention continues there will be only one holder of world equities - Sovereign Governments - or accurately put the taxpayers.
"We would be surprised that in this highly leveraged world, in combination with a structural decline in market liquidity, a 7-year cycle decline would just be mild. We think it’s actually just the other way around and in this context we see last year’s rise in volatility as just the start of a period with exceptionally high volatility where we wouldn’t be surprised to see record spikes in volatility over the next 12 to 17 months."
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As part of the US Oil renaissance I foresee Saudi Arabia either breaking internally or externally (through Iran and Russia war). US will have no benefit in assisting their one time partner as the US is seeking the Saudi Arabia crown of being the world's largest oil producer/exporter. Without the US military assistance Saudi Arabia is really isolated amongst Russia, Iran and even Israel. I forecast the House of Saud will collapse within 2 years. You can see the breaking of the Petro-Dollar alliance already with Saudi Arabia increasing production (slashing oil prices) to crush US shale production. You can also see it in the US recently approving the lifting of a 40 year old ban on US domestic oil exports. The US is building massive export ports and lastly Oil production of the US has drastically increased. Saudi Arabia were fighting the oil price war on 2 fronts: US and Russia. The main difference is that Russia/ns are more resilient to harsh economic times and geopolitically there have deeper diplomatic and strategic ties than Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia will lose the "Oil War" either way... Through internal, external or be the first to flinch and reduce production.
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My Original post on China - and the World economic crisis and the trigger point.
 
#Currencywars John Exter Inverse pyramid. When growth is a concern holders of derivatives start selling this begins opening up spreads and as spreads open up the chances of contagion grows rapidly as people sell out of derivative positions is the physical assets that get sold to meet those calls. We saw this example just occur with China's equities until government backstopped the derivative/debt exposure. This also occurred in US 2008 crisis - to this day the US government has secured debts through FDIC - tax payers money should the swaps fail. Its crazy and the craziness gets bigger every month!

-1x-1=1
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US: they don't have a right to shoot down pilots parachuting from a plane. Ever heard of the Geneva Convention? Double standards at work.

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UK seeing more value in China Alliance than US.
Prime Minister David Cameron will host talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the hope of securing billions of pounds worth of trade deals with China during the head of state’s four day visit to the UK.
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  • Garrett Goodenough
    Consultant Commerce and Leasing, present
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Thoughts on geo political spheres of influence.
Introduction
My opinions are based on extensive reading and learning on geo policy, history and political positioning. Forex, Commodities trading as well as a Consultant to the business sector from franchising to retail leasing negotiation.
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Currently
PERTH
Previously
New York - London - Moscow