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Wondering why Wall Street would hire Tim Pawlenty when Romney looks likely to lose? Suzy Khimm has the answer.
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Gideon Money's profile photoStephen Whitecar's profile photoBen Smith's profile photoJo Anne Thompson's profile photo
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I have $1000.00 for anyone willing to bet on the race.  Watch, Romney will win in a huge landslide.
 
+Chuck Ness Where? In the Cayman Islands? Almost all of the recent polls I've seen (except for Rasmussen, which is always suspect) show the President 5-8 points ahead. 
 
Just keep believing polls that over sample Democrats by 5 to 10 points.  Also, Reagan was supposed to lose to carter by 15 points, Bush I to Dukakis by 17 points, and Bush II to Gore and Kerry by 5 to 8 points.I still have the $1000.00, so out up or shut up.
 
Hey Chuck, with the vote caging, and more votes than voters phenomenon in 2004, I would not ever call that an actual victory.
 
Ok, Give me your name phone number and address so I can be sure to have all the information i need when you lose.  After I receive your information I will return a reply with mine. Send your information typed in the email,do not use an attachment or it will be deleted. to this email address, and I will respond.  chuckness@ymail.com
 
Hey Gideon, what does that say about Obama's big win against McCain then?
 
Pass ^_^ but you're really loose with your money! Are you sure the Republican Party is right for you? :P
 
Obviously you are not nearly as sure about Obama's chances as you claim. I am so sure about Obama's demise that I have challenged over a million people with this bet in the last 6 Months, and yet I not one person has taken the bet.
 
Perhaps it would help if you defined "huge landslide". Does that mean wins, wins by 5-7 points, what?

Also there's already a marketplace for people to make bets like that on intrade. Given your optimism I think you will be pleasantly surprised to see your odds. But you will find takers for your proposed bets. Plenty of them.
 
+Jim Kelly 538 is a little too bullish in my view for Obama. Though they might be helped now that the fed is involved, Obama's structural problems are not great. Even if they're not as bad as is claimed what with all the Carter comparisons flying around.

Still, I suspect the truth of the situation is a lot closer to Mr Silver than Mr Ness. If he is willing to specify terms, I would probably take such a bet. I am more doubtful that I would get to collect on it were I to win than that I would win. 
 
As i said, give me a name , phone number and address and I will do the same.  The rest will be worked out on a personal basis between us.  But do not send the information via a atachment.  It must be typed in the email, because of spam and viruses attachments get deleted. or I will delete  the email.  The email is in a comment above.
 
I'll put $1000 on Obama, too, if the money is in escrow.
 
As I said, the details will be worked out between us.  Send me an email.
 
I think it would behoove you to declare actual figures openly rather than let it be a private determination. You might find more takers suddenly or people willing to give you odds the more outlandish your proposition sounds. There's a difference between Romney winning 49-48, a viable possibility if not a likely one, and a vaguely defined "landslide", which you confidently asserted above. What does landslide mean in real terms? 

From my perspective, the obvious dishonesty of this is alarming. There's no way you've been finding nobody willing to take up a bet on a "landslide Romney" victory unless you haven't been actually offering such a bet until now. Hence, the 1000 dollars seems suspect in its existence to me. It should have to be put up in escrow or nobody is going to take you seriously.

In addition, I'd rather the money has to go to a charity that you find distasteful than to another person who might have to provide banking information to receive it and risk a scam from someone who seems off-their-meds crazy as it is. This would be more amusing when you lose if the money has to go to some liberal cause you despised. It might be equally interesting to a liberal who would care more about money going to enrich some conservative cause than enriching you personally. 
 
I find it interesting that you claim Obama will win, yet you want to know how badly I think of a landslide Romney will win by before you accept the bet.  If you are so sure that Obama will win, then what does it matter how much I think HUGE is? Either Obama wins, or he loses. Anyone so sure that the media is telling the truth about the way Obama is loved in America, and that the numbers all across the board prove he will win, would not be awaiting for my definition of huge. Otherwise you are admitting you are not all that comfortable with the news being reported about Obama getting re-elected. See, if you believe Obama is going to win, it matters not how big a margin I say he will lose by, because by simple math, an Obama win trumps any claim I have about how big Romney will win by. So am I to understand that you actually think Obama may not win after all?
 
You are the one who specified "landslide". I found that interesting and assumed that was a feature of the bet you had offered.

If the bet is merely over whether or not Romney wins, that's fine, but it'd be more interesting to if there's a range figure he reaches (positive or negative) for changes in odds. Or if there are charities/causes involved that we might despise (full disclosure, I'm libertarian, not liberal. Which would alter the likely composition of despised charities. I'm also not voting for either of them and would be doing this mostly to prove a point than because I actually care.)

Otherwise it's a pretty boring bet that you may as well just go on Intrade to place as you'd get around the demand that you put money in escrow for it. 

I would put the odds for Romney winning at all at around 20-25%, and winning by more than a slim margin at almost zero. I think it is possible, not very likely that he wins but I'd be confident enough to bet against it. If the bet were interesting. If there's a Euro-related crisis before the election, his chances are better. If there's another foreign policy related crisis that actually gets attention between now and then (Israel bombs Iran?, Far East nationalism turns up as people shooting at each other), you can forget about it, Romney is totally screwed then. 
 
+Ezra Klein Thanks, for finding the time to get more g+ posts up, congrat's in helping MSNBC keep it up as the GO-TO place for the truth!
 
Very good question which no-one seems to want ask or think important.
 
I'd be willing to bet Americans are NOT stupid enough to elect Romney.  But I'm not willing to trust Chuck with my personal information.  Escrow with an attorney that can be checked out and you've got my bet.
 
My willingness to bet on Obama is prior to the last debate.  So, Chuck, if you're serious, let's hear from your attorney before next Monday night's debate begins!
 
I won some cash myself. 1k would have been pleasant, either to a charity or myself. But I would bet there was never actually any money to be had here. 
 
Ezra what's going on covering for C Hayes you are acting so strange. What's all  the snickering about, all the fake laughter? What a disappointment! I thought you were as good as Rachel.Live & learn I guess
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