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Erik Dale
Attended University of Essex
Lives in Brussels, Belgium
176 followers|157,622 views
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Erik Dale

## Say Hi ##  - 
 
Who said European politics and economics can't be sexy? My very own project at Bruegel - the Google Play Newsstand edition. Possibly as the first think tank in the world, we're making all our latest publications, event invitations and materials, blog posts and videos available on all mobile devices through Google Currents (iOS) / Google Play Newsstand (Android). Let us know what you think!
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Erik Dale

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Who said politics and economics can't be sexy? My very own project at Bruegel - the +Google Play Newsstand edition. Possibly as the first think tank in the world, we're making all our latest publications, event invitations and materials, blog posts and videos available on all mobile devices through Google Currents (iOS) /  Google Play Newsstand (Android). Let us know what you 
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Erik Dale

Banter about Currents  - 
 
Does anyone know if there are any other think-tanks in +Google Newsstand? We at +Bruegel (world-leading think-tank for international economics) have just launched our edition!
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Erik Dale's profile photoJohn Weathersby's profile photo
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+John Weathersby As an independent think tank without an institutional stand-point (authors sign their own opinions), we are also neutral with regards to technology. As far as it's free (and ad-free) we would like to make our content available in whichever channel our readers prefer - we consider ourselves a public good. Any implementation ideas? Not too many experiences to draw on out there from other publishers.

Ps' We'd love to share our experiences once we have them!
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Erik Dale

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The purpose of antitrust law is to protect consumers, not competitors!
 
The ongoing #antitrust  case '+European Commission vs +Google'  is missing crucial point: the purpose of +European Union antitrust law is to protect consumers, not competitors.
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Erik Dale

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Wouldn't her problem be solved if she had a real job to begin with?
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Have him in circles
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Erik Dale

Discussion Board  - 
 
Who said politics and economics can't be sexy? My very own project at Bruegel - the Google Play Newsstand edition. Possibly as the first think tank in the world, we're making all our latest publications, event invitations and materials, blog posts and videos available on all mobile devices through Google Currents (iOS) / Google Play Newsstand (Android). Let us know what you think!
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lukas daalder's profile photoErik Dale's profile photo
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Really appreciate it!

We have not been using this platform either, but as Google seems intent on making Google Currents into Google Play Newsstand on all platforms, we saw it as a great chance to make our content available to anyone everywhere for free.

Let us know your thoughts and do feel free to share it on. We never spend a single cent on advertising, so word of mouth is all there is :-)
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Hey +Google Analytics! Where is our data gone? We were analyzing yesterdays numbers this morning, but now the whole 24-hour period called 'yesterday' has mysteriously disappeared (see screenshot). Please help!

+Google +Google Enterprise +Google Chrome +Google UK 
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Erik Dale

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My international #HTCOne in Belgium finally updated to Android 4.3 yesterday, but with +Android KitKat coming in a few days, I already feel like I'm on an outdated device. Faster updates, please? Pretty please? Was a little bit of an expensive hardware I bought from you, +HTC .
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Erik Dale

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Brilliant as always by +Silvia Merler !
 
The debt ceiling discussion and its impact on Europe

Dealing with unthinkable tail events is difficult, but the experience from Cyprus shows they can become reality. The uncertainty of having to imagine the unimaginable, might already have negative consequences for Europe. China urged the US political system to end its political impasse quickly – on which Europe should insist. End this highly dangerous game, before it risks shutting down the European economy along with its own.

On October 1st 2013, the US federal government officially entered a shutdown as no agreement was reached on the budget for 2014. Government shutdowns are nothing new in the US: There have been 17 such episodes since the late Seventies, the last of which occurred in 1995-96 under the Clinton administration. Based on these previous experiences, analysts and commentators tend to agree that the direct impact of the shutdown will be moderate, and the market reaction has been quite calm so far. The longer the shutdown lasts, however, the larger will be the consequences on GDP.

A much more significant threat comes from the US debt ceiling, for which an agreement in congress must be found by October 17th. The absence of a deal could – although it is not automatic that it would – trigger a default on parts of US debt obligations. Without a deal, analysts agree that scheduled auctions for October would probably have to be delayed or downsized to avoid hitting the ceiling. Towards the end of the month, however, the Treasury’s cash buffer would be exhausted, just ahead of significant payment obligations coming due on the 1st November (about USD 67bn in social security payments, healthcare programmes and military pay). For the US to technically default on its debt, the Treasury would need to miss payment of principal and/or interest on US securities, with significant uncertainty about whether and how this would happen. The outcome of this depends, to a large extent, on the possibility of resorting to "creative" solutions or to prioritise payments.  Despite significant uncertainty, there seems to be consensus that the 15th of November could be the final countdown, with significant interest payments of USD 32 bn coming due on that date.

A scenario of technical default could be horrifying (e.g. see here for a summary), but markets have barely taken notice of the government shutdown thus far and are reacting with relative calm to the approaching debt ceiling deadline. A US default is the prototype of an ‘unthinkable event’, whose likelihood is by definition priced very low. In previous occasions of stalemate over the debt ceiling, including the last time in 2011, a very last-minute agreement has always been reached. It is also not the first time that a discussion on the debt ceiling comes along with a government shutdown - the same happened in 1995.

A number of factors could play differently into the equation this time around, with unexpected consequences. First, the politics is different. Several commentators have been pointing out that the hard-liner Republicans could turn out to be - for a number of internal reasons - far less malleable in 2013 than they were in 2011. Edward Luce, for instance, argued in the FT that the shutdown is ultimately a signal the Republican leadership is aware of being weaker than back two years ago, and looks to be legitimatised through an extreme show of strength. For this reason, their incentive to remain entrenched may be underestimated; the recent position taken by speaker Boehner suggests the same. Similarly, Ezra Klein points out that while there were some – although limited – points of contact between Democrats and Republicans in 2011, this seems impossible under present circumstances. Second, the global environment is different. When the downgrade happened in 2011, the US was still enjoying massive inflows from the global flight to safety, triggered by the collapse of Lehman in 2008 and then again by the Euro crisis in 2011. In the summer of 2011, Europe’s crisis reached a new low, affecting both Spain and Italy, making investors desperate enough to pay negative real yields on Bunds and Gilts. Under such circumstances, the US was considered something of a global safe haven. Risk appetite is still far below pre-crisis levels, but the situation in Europe has been improving since September 2012. Third, monetary policy was different. The FED was acting with full force and no discussion on tapering was yet on the horizon. It is interesting to note that during the 1995 government shutdown, the Fed eased an unexpected 25bn for the first time, following a series of rates hikes through 1994-95.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, Europe is left to wait and hope for the unthinkable not to happen. Europeans already had their taste of unthinkable at home, with the events in Cyprus, with little appetite for more. Although obviously of different type and magnitude, the situation in Cyprus was to some extent similar, considering markets’ psychology. Despite a rather long period of time with open talks of possible haircuts, deposits remained remarkably stable in the run up to the crisis. At least until the unthinkable eventually did happen, with the Eurogroup initially agreeing to impose a haircut on insured depositors, triggering a run that could only be stopped by means of another unthinkable - the imposition of capital controls in the monetary union. Even without venturing into the disastrous effects of a technical default on US debt obligations, the political uncertainty generated could boost inflows to the European market. A number of consequences could follow from this. First, the euro could appreciate, undermining the competitiveness of European companies, especially in the South, at a moment when euro area adjustment is still fragile. Second, capital inflows could be directed to Europe’s closest substitute to Treasuries, the Bund. This would be marginally beneficial for Germany, but also leave other member countries at a relative disadvantage.

Dealing with unthinkable tail events is difficult, but the experience from Cyprus shows they can become reality. The uncertainty of having to imagine the unimaginable, might already have negative consequences for Europe. China urged the US political system to end its political impasse quickly – on which Europe should insist. End this highly dangerous game, before it risks shutting down the European economy along with its own.
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Erik Dale

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Watching the world change since 1980 - mind blowing.
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People
Have him in circles
176 people
Stein Ramstad's profile photo
Ina Spinnangr's profile photo
Martin Aleksander Alvær's profile photo
Work
Occupation
Communications and European Affairs
Skills
European politics and institutional affairs, Social media and strategic communications, Web design and campaign management, Speech and report writing
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Brussels, Belgium
Previously
Bergen, Hordaland - Colchester, Essex - Os, Hordaland - Aberystwyth, Wales - Orlando, Florida - Skarnes, Hedmark
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Tagline
Online Editor
Introduction
Erik Dale is from Bergen, Norway. He has a PG in European politics and integration from the University of Essex and is a member of the Alliance for Liberals and Democrats in Europe and Young European Federalists.
Bragging rights
Online Editor at Bruegel, MA in European Integration and European Politics, BA in European Studies with Comparative Politics, Writer on contract for State&Governance, Published in the Guardian
Education
  • University of Essex
    European Integration and European Politics, 2011 - 2012
  • University of Bergen
    European Studies with Comparative Politics, 2008 - 2011
  • University of Aberystwyth
    English Litterature with Creative Writing, 2007 - 2008
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Gender
Male
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In a relationship
Other names
EuroDale