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Drew Sowersby
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Bitcoin Analysis: 27 Jun 2015

Great Expectations

The attached chart is very bullish, and could prove to be a preamble to a glorifying July 4 here in the U.S. Notice, for each

--> The strong horizontal resistance line at ~ 247 has been breached with force. That line should now provide decent support.

--> The white simple moving average represents the trend over 1000, 4 hour increments.

--> The yellow simple moving average represents the trend over 100, 4 hour increments.

--> The pink simple moving average represents the trend over 10, 4 hour increments.

--> The blue simple moving average represents 1, 4 hour increment.

The fact that the 100 MA may soon cross over the 1000 MA is significant. The market looks poised to select action over continued consolidation. The odds appear to highly favor a continued advance after a potential minor pullback to test our newest support level at the horizontal line.

Our targets remain unchanged as we hope great expectations don't lead to disappointment.

Up Target = 300
Down Target = 240
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Ultimately, your right. We live in a crumbling global financial system, and Bitcoin, along with other digital instruments stand a good chance at offering building blocks to a much better system. 

However, I am not convinced the current state represents a Greece problem. As this article clarifies, no more Euros are being spent on Bitcoin now than typical. Couple that with the fact Grecians represent one of the most cash associated people (to avoid egregious taxes) and the link becomes more tenuous. 

http://fortune.com/2015/06/29/bitcoin-price-hike-greece-grexit/

Also, trading volume has been increasing, albeit still well within reason. The BTC market is maturing after a significant testing period over the last 6 months. 
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Will watch.
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Analysis: 14 Jun 2015

The price of BTC has been advancing, slowly, under relatively light trading volume which has touched the standing 235 Up Target. Most technical indicators have aligned for further advance as sellers cannot stomach sub-220 prices. In light of the latest failure to drive the price lower, we could shortly see more enthusiastic participation from a wider audience and rematch at 250.

This comes on the heels of some very interesting comments from some of the most influential financial voices of the old system....copied below.

Mr. Hock said: “We live in the 21st century but are still using command and control organizational structures from the 16th century. Bitcoin is one of the best examples of how a decentralized, peer-to-peer organization can solve problems that the dated organizations cannot.”

John Reed, under whose leadership Citibank created the modern ATM, said: “Bitcoin is truly the best iteration of a universal ledger we’ve ever seen. The mere fact that there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins and that each Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million units makes it a significant improvement of any historical form of currency.”

Lawrence H. Summers commented that, “Bitcoin offers, for the first time, a method for transferring value and making payments from anywhere to anywhere, in real-time, without any intermediary. This could mean we soon see many billions of people sending Bitcoin everyday as easily as they currently send a text message.”

Source: http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/05/27/bitcoin-startup-xapo-announces-advisory-board-with-visa-founder-former-chairman-of-citibank-and-former-secretary-of-treasury/  

Up Target: 250

Down Target: 220
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Analysis: Week of 24 May 2015

In continuation of the prevailing pattern, the price of BTC stayed on the bunny slopes last week. After a slight decline to around 230, we are now back above 240 and looking primed to once again take on 250. However, trading is lukewarm as the market attempts to coil the springboard. 

Looking at the charts, I see confirmation that the bears have volleyed control back to the bulls in several time frames, however, I am not convinced they are willing to take the reigns. It looks a bit like hot potato, and players still aren't quite sure if they are (or want to be) on the Home or Away team. Trading volume remains in check, although one could accurately characterize the current effort as “bubbling”. Two minor bullish impulse waves over the last few days may be the preamble to a rather swift and assertive push to test 300 again. Spartans!   

As I write, I see the market wants to test higher boundaries as the downers have repeatedly failed to drive the bus into the ditch. It is more tame than usual out there over the last few weeks, and bitcoin is not a tame beast. Something dramatic is likely to happen soon. I think it could definitely happen in the upcoming week if we knock down the first domino at 250. Falling back to 230 would indicate further consolidation and paralysis, if not a return to gloom and doom.

Sentiment for next week: Winding the Jack in the Box 

Up target = 250
Down target = 230

In the chart: I have circled 4 similar patterns in the weekly chart going back ~ 18 months. Each of these were times the market was indecisive for a protracted period. Right now we are entering the fourth week in a row, which is approaching historical limits for BTC. Notice the size of the adjacent candle each time the market made up its mind.  
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Analysis: Week of May 17 2015

Current Sentiment: Bears without claws and Bulls with no horns

There is blood in the water, and yet, the sharks aren't biting.

The price of BTC is experiencing a state of paralysis as the market seems to be “thinking” about its future. Interestingly, there has been an increase in volatility this week, making the situation all that more of a head scratcher. Nonetheless, I suspect some sort of move soon to end this most recent bout of indecision. But which way will it go?

Looking to the charts, I see that the bears are in slight control of most time frames, but the order book is stacked with buy orders below. Big bears can only make a distinct move if there is room to fall, which would need to be all the way down to ~ 175-200 to make it worth the effort. Are they going to try to test ~ $210-220 again? Who cares !? On the other end, people are not really buying BTC at market price right now, so there is no train to hop onto. The charts are drifting sideways as influential traders look to astrology for answers. 

I hold the view that this is what life looks like near the bottom. Unfortunately, only time will allow for answers. For this week I sense at least a small move down before the possibility of advance. If a resolution to the paralysis should appear, in either direction, it will be as obvious as day from night!

From the chart:

Up target = 250
Down target = 213
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Wealth, encouragement, happiness, passion, connection!
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Hi, I eat foreign DNA for a living!
 
The toughest animal on the planet

A rotifer is a small animal that lives in water and sweeps food into its mouth with small hairs.  There are many kinds, most less than a millimeter in length.  They can eat anything smaller than their head.

The toughest are the bdelloid rotifers.  These can survive being completely dried out for up to 9 years!  When they dry out, they sometimes crack.  Even their DNA can crack... but when they get wet, they come back to life!

Thanks to this strange lifestyle, their DNA gets mixed with other DNA.   Up to 10% of their active genes come from bacteria, fungi and algae!!! 

Scientists have found DNA from 500 different species in the genes of a rotifer from Australia.  "It's a genetic mosaic. It takes pieces of DNA from all over the place," said one of the study's authors. "Its biochemistry is a mosaic in the same way. It's a real mishmash of activities."

Perhaps because of this, bdelloid rotifers don't bother to have sex. 

Their ability to survive dry conditions makes them great at living in desert lakes and mud puddles that dry up.  But they also use this ability to beat some parasites.  When they dry out, the parasites die... but the rotifers survive!

On top of all this, bdelloid rotifers can survive high doses of radiation.  My guess is that this is just a side-effect of having really good genetic repair mechanisms.

Puzzle 1: what does 'bdelloid' mean?

Puzzle 2: what other words begin with 'bd'... and why?

Here's the paper that found 10% of active genes and 40% of all enzyme activity in bdelloid rotifers involve foreign DNA:

• Chiara Boschetti, Adrian Carr, Alastair Crisp, Isobel Eyres, Yuan Wang-Koh, Esther Lubzens, Timothy G. Barraclough, Gos Micklem and Alan Tunnacliffe, Biochemical diversification through foreign gene expression in bdelloid rotifers, PLOS Genetics, 15 November 2012, http://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1003035.

The  animated gif is from here:

http://merismo.tumblr.com/post/43868329996/gif-rotifer-with-cilia-on-corona-present-mastax

#spnetwork #bdelloid #rotifer doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1003035
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Bizarre little things. Wonder how it does these tricks
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Just in: Don't Buy Bitcoin #dontbuybitcoin  
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That is not at all the way I view the satire. 

His point to me was this: Bitcoin has had 4 "bubbles", all resulting in crash behavior. We are now at the bottom of the last crash and perhaps ready for the next BOOM! So to all the skeptics out there, Don't buy bitcoin, it will crash. 

In his satire, he doesn't take a small snippet from each chart, those represent the entire timeframe from bubble initiation to the end point of the subsequent crash. 

How do you view the satire?
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Analysis: 17 Jun 2015

Bears to Dust

Three days ago, I reported what I thought was a relatively progressive advance in the price of BTC, and that we could soon see a rematch with resistance at 250. But no, not to be. There was no rematch, and there was no resistance. Once the price nixxed 240, it set off a huge short squeeze rally. The price is now knocking on the door at 260. 

This most recent advance is indicative of a classic bullish impulse wave, and there may be room for further advance to 270-280 before a significant sell-off. In one scenario, the sell-off could be short-lived, leading to a blast through 300. In another, the sell-off could erase a good portion of gains before a slower advance to 300. To the downside, we look at 240 to hold down the fort. 

This latest impulse is real, leaving the bears in the dust. But further advance is not guaranteed as we wait for a deeper confirmation. 

Up target = 300

Down target = 240
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Probably not. I will be where you are now...remember!
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Shiny Bitcoin Trust

Right now, I look at BTC as something both very serious and very playful at the same time; a paradox. Taking it too seriously can lead to many negative emotions, such as fear and anger. But you can't afford, imo, not to pay attention and play around with it a little. Dabble, tinker. This leads me to one basic conclusion about Bitcoin...in the current stage, it's best to think of the whole BTC space in light of a hobby.

It's hard to argue otherwise without looking foolish. A gazillion dollars flowing in (a direct threat to the established money paradigm?), and yet, a perceived minimal use to consumers. Its strengths are matched well with weaknesses, and we cannot simply fast forward through all the bullshit. With powers as vast, or even greater than the Internet, one has to take BTC seriously.

I say turn it into a game.

I have begun collecting bits from family and friends. For funz, I call it the Shiny Bitcoin Trust (SBT). Every week, I blast my conceptual analysis (as opposed to technical) of the BTC/USD market...try to make it fun and accurate to general price targets. Specifics don't matter if you are collecting small pieces over time from a diverse crowd. 

The rules are simple:

1. Buy on dips
2. Don't sell designated funds (can swap though) for a specified time, so long the value of the trust doesn't fall below 50% the investment. 

Game Objective: Grow a collective that can buy at a rate equal or greater than any rate of decline in price.

Perhaps this is already happening more than we can know! 
   
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Introducing "The Bitcoin Chronicles" Collection Here on G+ 

The last 10 years have been quite the learning experience for me. I have come across several important terms such as "graphene" "regenerative medicine" "transhumanism/post-humanism" "semantic web" "3-D printing" "crowdsource" "open source" "nanobiotechnology".....and so on to merely scratch the surface. I have experienced some of these terms in real time working as a molecular biologist, and have met many others traveling a similar path.

But nothing has captured my attention the way #bitcoin  has. And it still seems surreal to me just how much power a single word can have. Humans are embarking on the next phase of their existence, one that will most likely result in a toppling of the current financial paradigm and integration of our species at the global scale (referred to as "One Organism" in Augmata Hive lore). We have the fiber optics in place, and now we have a world wide ledger (the Blockchain) to index everything of value. Anti-globalists should take note that Bitcoin is not being propagated by an elite class or New World Order, but by the same "you and me" that grew out the World Wide Web.

All roads lead to a future where button-pushing sequences on layers and layers of computer code result in tangibles, the so called Internet of Things. Join me over the coming months and years as I chronicle my experience with this most interesting and disruptive technology.

If you don't mind, please respond to the poll. 
9 votes  -  votes visible to Public
This sounds awesome
56%
This sounds boring
0%
I don't care a lick
44%
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Document what you're passionate about. To hell with what anyone else thinks. 
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Massive Head and Shoulders pattern forming in the price of #Bitcoin on the 3-day chart.

Certainly a watershed moment awaits in the coming weeks. Due to the fractal nature of market activity, this will be the 3rd timescale testing the pattern. The first two failed of course, which leaves this final wave down. According to the line representing May 7, we can expect a small wave up to 240-250 before it likely drops to 200ish.  Will it complete the fractal?

If not, the price of Bitcoin would likely blossom quite nicely.
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Hahaha! that is a stretch +Mark Bruce. But ever since you posted that fateful Crypto discussion last September, I have been enthralled. I have managed to supply my family fund with more than 11 BTC thus far. I won't be stopping anytime soon.

I get a kick out of the analysis and it fits with the holonic behavior of life I have come to know do dearly. 
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Rolling dung through treacherous terrain. 
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Insect Death Star, I thought he looked Sith!
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Sometimes the path of least resistance is still a slow tortuous one
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Always thinking of the future. Share random stuff, at random times. 


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Microbiologist, Molecular Biologist, Lab Expert, Writer, Mind-Mapping
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