Let me help all of you political scientists who went to Stanford and now own political analysis and polling companies...
I feel bad for you. None of you can figure out why your projections where so off.
i expect some payment from each of you, because what I am going to tell you can save your cash cow polling businesses - and your reputation around the University.
I am dead serious, I want some payment for this.
To measure outcomes, by polling or testing, scientists consider a premise, or experiment, and measure the results: measure how far the effects of the experimental application agrees with the premise.
i suspect most all of you analysts are as smart as you are arrogant; I have little doubt that your processes are academically sound and the execution of your polling competent.
The problem is more fundamental - and likely took root as soon as you began your studies at your liberal, respected colleges - the ones that are absolutely biased but you didn't notice because everybody was so smart and charming.
Okay, here's the brass tax of the problem - (don't forget to pay me some money - so serious about that)
Your polling is designed to measure the success of the campaigning that politicians do: the type of politics democratic politicians do and most others have adopted.
The democrats, and everyone as far as you know, categorize voters in terms of shallow, disgusting, yet totally normalized features like skin color, gender, sexual preferences, income, affiliation and religious beliefs. From there, the politicians will "intelligently" ascertain and masterfully communicate compelling messages tailor-made for each specific "type" of voter.
As a pollster, you bring all of your intellect and wisdom to measuring the success of this process. You figure out what percent of the electorate each faction of voters make up, you factor in the historical voter turnout for each group, add the comparative percentage that participated in the primaries, and poll a random sample of a corresponding number of voters from each group. You sprinkle in a few highly intellectual adjustments that I'm not aware of because I didn't attend Stanford, and produce results ... that until now, have been relatively accurate because most politicians of all parties have adopted identity related campaign strategies.
This is racist, bigoted and small minded thinking - what you and your leftist pig party has been engaged in. And, you know it - which is why you CONSTANTLY project racism and bigotry upon your opponents. But you've been trained to be racist and bigoted - and have lost sight. People are so much bigger than their color and genitals - and the type of genitals they prefer.. The American people are so much more, so much smarter and deserve so much more credit and respect than those in your disgusting pig party give them.
Whatever it is that Trump actually believes and feels in his heart, the campaign he ran ignored the small categories that you pigs use to define people. The Trump campaign looked at peoples needs, and dreams, thoughts and the reality of their situation and conditions as humans. These things are real and important - it is only for the decades of insidious and self serving propaganda and manipulation of people's perceptions and cultural norms, that people even tolerate your disgusting racist, sexist and bigoted view of society and approach to politics. And the fact that you pigs accuse others for being racist and bigoted all the while, is so damn contemptible and disgusting - it's unforgivable.
Anyway, you measured the poll results against the the total voter count for each category you place them in, instead of weighting them against larger identifications, or better yet, against the total electorate. It is your fucking racism and small minded boxing in of human beings that distorted your calculations.
Anything Trump can do for the country from here on out is a bonus. What he has already done, was to FINALLY put a stop to the identity politics. He's rendered dumbfounded, those who are actually, truly racist pigs and sexist, bigoted liars. The same people who've hijacked the democratic party - and who make up the majority of those involved in American politics for decades.