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David Roodman
Worked at Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Attended Harvard College
Lives in Washington, DC
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David Roodman

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It seems American cities had a murder boomlet, but it may be passing.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal last May, the Manhattan Institute's Heather Mac Donald blackly heralded a “new nationwide crime wave.” She blamed the “Ferguson effect”: a pull-back by police in the face of public hostility over alleged abuses. Ferguson, of course, is the city in St. Louis ...
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David Roodman

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The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is developing a regulation that will require utilities to assess and redress their vulnerability to severe geomagnetic storms (which are actually caused by solar storms). Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory published a report last month (http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/09/f26/TPL-007-1%20Review_LANL_2015_09_14.pdf) questioning the conservatism of the scenario utilities are supposed to simulate. FERC asked for public comment within 20 days. I submitted comments last night.

I think we need more independent scrutiny like this--national-level regulation electricity regulation in this country is actually industry-driven--but I conclude that as a statistical exercise, the Los Alamos report falls short.

http://elibrary.ferc.gov/idmws/common/OpenNat.asp?fileID=14020606

In the process of writing this, I decided to do my own analysis. So last week I downloaded the entire IMAGE magnetometer network database (scraped with Python). It's 1.8 billion data points. My laptop handled it OK. I used SQL Server, but maybe it would have been best to work directly with the raw data files the old-fashioned way.
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I'm come from Vietnam . I found a problem of agricultural policy :deforestation, reforestation . On average 1 adult tree soak 45 lbs CO2/year . ​Between 1990 and 2010, United States of America lost an average of 384,350 ha or 0.13% forest /year ( total 2.6 % from 1990 to 2010 ) . In total, between 1990 and 2010, United States of America gained 2.6% of its forest cover, or around 7,687,000 ha - this is a rate : deforesting 384,350 ha of adult trees which soak 45 lbs CO2/tree/year ( will soak 45lbsCO2/year/tree  if we don't exploit it )  , reforesting 384,350 ha of young trees - which can't soak 45 lbs CO2/tree/year in all 17 years , until them become adult trees which soak 45 lbs CO2/year , this is the weakness of US  deforestation/reforestation ? . I tried to contact GatesFoundation via info@gatesfoundation.org, 4 or 5 email but didn't get a reply
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David Roodman

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As a consultant for the Open Philanthropy Project last year, I reviewed the research on the whether immigration reduces employment or earnings for workers in receiving countries. I concluded that for natives the harm, if any, is small. Last month the prominent immigration researcher George ...
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David Roodman

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The second--and arguably most important--post in my series on geomagnetic storms, in which I explain why the "Big One" might only be twice as big as storms that have hit in recent decades, which civilization has largely shrugged off.
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A quick-reaction post on the argument between Steven Pinker & Nassim Taleb over whether humanity is becoming less warlike. Latest Taleb salvo invokes extreme value theory, which I know a bit about. I think Taleb sees Pinker as saying "this time is different" and then his entire field of vision goes red.
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words can make the world become a better place to live and can also tear family apart.
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David Roodman

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We are remarkably ignorant of the determinants of long-term crime trends.
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This is the fourth post in a series about geomagnetic storms as a global catastrophic risk. A paper covering the material in this series was recently released. I devoted the first three posts in this series to describing geomagnetic storms and assessing the odds that a Big One is coming.
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David Roodman

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My third post on geomagnetic storms for GiveWell. I again challenge a prominent risk estimate as probably too high. http://blog.givewell.org/2015/07/13/geomagnetic-storms-using-extreme-value-theory-to-gauge-the-risk/
This is the third post in a series about geomagnetic storms as a global catastrophic risk. A paper covering the material in this series was just released. My last post examined the strength of certain major geomagnetic storms that occurred before the advent of the modern electrical grid, ...
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David Roodman

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Could a great blast from the sun black out power for years? Probably not, but we should be more sure than we are.
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Some modest updates to my understanding of the debate over the long-term trend in war deaths.
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Interesting! Thanks for posting the link.
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Have him in circles
341 people
Ashima Patel's profile photo
Derrill Watson's profile photo
Jenni Swanson Voorhees's profile photo
mustafa donald alasa's profile photo
lydia ievins's profile photo
Alan Peel's profile photo
Tim Ogden's profile photo
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Education
  • Harvard College
    Mathematics, 1986 - 1990
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Male
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Freelance consultant, former senior economic advisor at Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation & senior fellow at CGD; father; husband; son; dancer; piano hacker
Work
Occupation
Policy consultant
Employment
  • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
    Senior Economic Advisor, 2013 - 2014
  • Center for Global Development
    Senior Fellow, 2002 - 2013
  • Worldwatch Institute
    Senior Researcher, 1993 - 2001
  • Vietnam
    Fulbright Scholar, 1998 - 1999
    Vietnam
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Washington, DC
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David Roodman's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
Sabermetric Research: Replacing "statistically significant"
blog.philbirnbaum.com

"In common language it means something like 'important' or 'meaningful.' But the significance test scientists use doesn't measure importance

Editing ODA: What to Omit and Add in the Definition of Aid
www.cgdev.org

My earlier posts on the definition of Official Development Assistance (here, here) dwell on the questions of when and how to count loans as

Peer Review of Social Science Research in Global Health: A View Through ...
www.cgdev.org

In recent years, the interdisciplinary nature of global health has blurred the lines between medicine and social science. As medical journal

More on the Definition of ODA: Proper Credit for Credits
www.cgdev.org

CGD’s recent publication of my paper on improving the statistical definition of Official Development Assistance (ODA) brought me into contac

The Crisis in Official Development Assistance (ODA) Statistics: Needed R...
www.cgdev.org

David Roodman is a former CGD Senior Fellow now working as an independent consultant. Learn more about his work at davidroodman.com.

Straightening the Measuring Stick: A 14-Point Plan for Reforming the Def...
www.cgdev.org

The definition of foreign aid—Official Development Assistance, or ODA—is in crisis. The statistical aggregate assumed its current form betwe

Nitro
plus.google.com

We build easy-to-use products that help people work smarter with digital documents.

Timesheet - Time Tracker
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Timesheet allows you the recording of your work with a simple push of a button. You can easily add breaks, expenses and notes. Manage your p

Undue credit: donors are exploiting oudated rules to inflate their aid
www.theguardian.com

The development assistance committee is allowing donors to count hard loans as aid. It needs a wake-up call, says David Roodman

TouchPal X Keyboard
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HIGHLIGHTS: • Emoji X: Flip up Space for emoji & smileys, 500+ extended emojis • TouchPal Cloud - Cloud Backup & Sync - Backup user words &

The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evid...
www.cgdev.org

The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence - Working Paper 174 (June 2013 revision). 6/18/09. David Roodma

» Cato Tops New CGD Index of Think Tank Profile » Global Development: Vi...
blogs.cgdev.org

David Roodman and Julia Clark. This Thursday, the World bank will host the unveiling of the latest edition of the best-known ranking of thin

Growing artificial societies
books.google.com

books.google.com - How do social structures and group behaviors arise from the interaction of individuals? Growing Artificial Societies appr

Forbes India Magazine - Vijay Mahajan: We’re Very Much Alive
business.in.com

BASIX chairman Vijay Mahajan tells the microfinance company is trying everything to climb out of the pit that it finds itself in

» The Rush for the Entrances in Myanmar » Global Development: Views from...
blogs.cgdev.org

Over the last ten years, donors have publicly declared that they would improve how they operate in order to make aid work better. They would

» Four Arguments against the Elimination of Child Labor » David Roodman'...
blogs.cgdev.org

Don’t get me wrong: sarcastic headline aside, I’m not in favor of the exploitation of children. However, I feel moved to speak against a rec

» The Nine Ladies Snap Back » David Roodman's Microfinance Open Book Blog
blogs.cgdev.org

The nine client-members on the board of the Grameen Bank, all women, have made a sassy public response to the interim report of the commissi

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