Discussion  - 
Big Question/ Discussion: How do you estimate traffic on a site?

I get this question a lot from my clients. What traffic should i expect when your SEO job is done? 

I know that this is a hard question, and it depends on many factors like search volume, position in SERPs, CTR, competition, etc.

Any thoughts, or articles, or resources?
Tom Johns's profile photoDan Petrovic's profile photoDaniel Ene's profile photoTim Capper's profile photo
If you think you can reliably get them to a top position you could look at search volume for chosen keywords and make an estimate based on general click through rates for those positions (http://dejanseo.com.au/position-ctr/)

This is pretty loose though as it doesn't take into account long tail traffic increases or unforeseen factors affecting click through rate for the given SERP.
If I need to estimate I take the exact volume per month for a keyword, calculate organic as being 65%, then use 36.5% for #1, 19.5% for 1-3 and 8.9% for front page.

However, that was a few years ago - these days it's incredibly difficult with the ever changing nature of the SERPs with author rank, hreviews, shopping, maps etc being used more and more - and differently from niche to niche.
Hi Daniel,
You rather think to tell your client that traffic will increase in time, but not speak with concrete numbers. There are too many variations to go with any precise numbers, especially in first 3-6 month of campaign. But, you can offer a projection with main keywords and their exact match traffic from Adwords...Then, click on Chris link above and that's it. 
I never quote traffic increases.
Simply impossible to do - as part of SEO (for me) includes promotion and even advertising, so there will be traffic/lead gen, but from various sources.
Further, you cannot rely on things like Adwords tool to provide correct/exact figures, and CTR from SERPs can/does vary based on location and intent (not to mention season, what other titles are in use etc.).

Instead, I focus moreo n the Conversion Figure, and provide estimates there - which is far easier to supply, and translates to money quicker :D
I don't sell this either. But it would be cool to make an estimation related to each keyword i track. I would love to see a formula, or to make one.

Despite CTR, Search Volume, Position in Organic Search, what other factors would you consider?
Geo/Local and Language could be factors.
Date/Season often are.
+Lyndon NA but wouldn't you still need some traffic volume estimates for conversion figures to have any real value?

+Daniel Ene personalised search and location are now big factors also, we are finding more and more that different folk in different locations see different results - like with rank checking, it's becoming harder and harder to measure
+Dave Ashworth i know, we are different people with different interests. It's quite normal to see different results. This estimation would be for non logged in people, non personalized SERPs, non geo targeting.
+Dave Ashworth - not really.
You can increase the conversion of pre-existing traffic.
I've even reduced traffic, but in so doing so have also reduced bounces and increased conversions :D
+Daniel Ene I've done this in the past by using very conservative estimates of traffic for related keywords we're targeting and really low CTR's while taking into account their current site, site traffic, under utilized assets, etc.. At times it has been fairly accurate and others totally off. Luckily the times I was totally off it was because we were blown away by the traffic figures/increases. The key is being very conservative in your estimates especially if you're also calculating potential conversions.
Downloaded WMT search queries and page bringing up error ?

What am i doing wrong ?
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