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Dan Kahan
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Dan Kahan

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In 1785, a French mathematician named Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat (known as Marquis de Condorcet) used statistics to champion democracy. Democracies are based on the collective decisions ...
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There is some sort of Deepak Chopra quantum entanglement going on around Wonder Woman.
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There is no rotational movement

Each individual dot is moving in a straight line
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40 Years ago : Queen play their first show in America.
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There's a reason why overwhelming evidence hasn't spurred public action against global warming
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Gaythia Weis's profile photoDan Kahan's profile photo
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+Dan Kahan   I think that it is interesting to note that at near the bottom of the Salon article above it mentions that:
"They [ Oreskes and Lewandowksy]are currently working together on a paper on the effects of denial on the scientific community." 
But I'm not sure that I have the same study in mind.  To be useful, I think this needs to be seen as an iterative process.  One that is informed by your work on cultural cognition, and looking at ways that past messaging is being evaluated by opposing sources and then how the next set of messages ought to be altered accordingly.  So in the case of climate deniers it is not so much the deniers themselves that are the targets, it is those undecided folks who might be influenced by their messages.  And  ultimately, the messaging to understand is that coming from industry.  In order to see how they are targeting blocks of voters  and adjusting (using a special squad of in-house +Dan Kahan robots) to gear messages towards targeted "tribes" in ways that effectively counter the science messaging.
  In that regard, I think that there is much useful information in the CDC cigarette article above.

The 97% figure could be seen as doing essentially nothing to convert those actively denialist, it might not reach those undecided either.  But I do believe that it does serve to "build the scientific platform", as the CDC article puts it in their conclusion.  This increases the proportion of society that then begins to treat global climate change as a forgone conclusion and takes actions accordingly.  In so doing they increase the likelihood that communications media will adopt that view.  And THAT change in societal alignments starts to bring the undecided along.

Scientists and other science communicators then reacting to the barbs of denialists essentially derails the societal consensus process and serves to bring the media back to reporting heavily on the denialists views.   And thus the actions of the pro-science side are bent to serve and to promote the positions of their opponents.  Anti-vaxxer Andrew Wakefield was a master at this.  Creationist Ken Ham also.

IMHO, some journalists, most recently exemplified in your post on Paul Krugman, are lashing out in their frustration at the dismantlement of the functions of traditional newspapers in delivering journalism, and commentary, to the public.  They are having a hard time getting their message through, and are thus understandably angry about it.  But then,  in the manner of so doing, falling into the trap set for them by their opponents.  If stronger forces wall you in, it is wrong to respond by bashing heads to a pulp against it.  It is necessary to look for alternative paths and weak points.
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Have them in circles
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Dan Kahan

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Belief in climate change doesn't reflect what you know; it expresses who you are...
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:Life is hard ...
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Irina Tcherednichenko's profile photoDan Kahan's profile photo
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+Irina Tcherednichenko thx for link-- I missed that! :) 
& yes-- name is (officially) "Ann Richards, the Cat" or Ann Richards, TC or AR or Lucifer or Satan
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Cultural cognition isn't the problem; a polluted science communication environment is, and solving it requires getting off your ass & out of your lab & doing some real work in the field
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I assume that you've seen Paul Krugman's latest ode to tribalism: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/there-goes-the-sun/?smid=fb-share.  I think he is missing an important boundary crossover.  Sure, the Koch brothers have a lot vested in fossil fuels.  But some of the very best solar installations belong to right wingers in rural areas.  Some of these people are aiming to be off grid entirely, but not all have.   They may have a different vision of the future than Elon Musk, but if you wanted to pull votes away from Koch bros. candidates this might actually be a good issue, IMHO.  Waiting for your study, for actual data, of course!
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17th April 1970.. "Nixon meets Cash"

Richard Nixon invites Johnny Cash to perform at the White House, then surprises the singer by requesting Merle Haggard's reactionary "Okie From Muskogee." Cash declines, but does perform "A Boy Named Sue" instead.

#todaysmemory  
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