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D. Travis North
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D. Travis North

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Pretty cool time lapses of culverts and storm sewers. It may not sound interesting or pleasing to the eye... Until you watch it. Art and beauty from benign and ugly stuff... My favorite kind.
matthew rappaport originally shared:
 
This RABBIT HOLE kicks ass!
#england   #timelapse  
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I don't understand anti-vaccine mentality.  To me it's a simple matter of statistical fact.  Your choices are:
A) A 0.001% of critical side effects and a 0.0001% chance of debilitating illness or death.
B) A better than 60% chance of contracting a life-threatening disease.  

Oh, and did I mention that no legitimate peer-reviewed study has yet to link vaccines with Autism?

Seems like a simple choice to me.
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be careful about causation vs correlation. Medicine made huge leaps in the same times that vaccines were introduced. It's difficult to tease out exactly why there were sudden drops and at the same time as a society it's easier to present that vaccines are good, because overall they actually are, rather than get into the complicated discussion. This is similar to the way police departments cite things like broken windows policing as being a huge positive because crime dropped except that they leave out that crime was dropping for lots of reasons at the same time. 

I do however agree that people make decisions based on incomplete data. 
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Was talking about LED lighting with +Manny Brum​ a few minutes ago and thought others would find this interesting. Not all light sources are the same. In this photo, all of the light is LED. But they are all calibrated to mimic older light sources from High Pressure Sodium at 2200 Kelvin on the left, incandescent at 2700 K next to it all the way up to 4500 Kelvin, similar to Metal Halide (usually between 4000K and 4500K), at the right.

Incidentally, daylight is actually much bluer, somewhere between 5400K-6500K depending on weather conditions (the real reason the sky is blue).

Oh...for sake of credit due:  This is from the showroom at +Sternberg Lighting in Chicago
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D. Travis North

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A lot of new tricks, eh?  
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So the topic is Senator Ted Cruz and his bid for the Oval Office.  But I'd like to focus this discussion strictly on his strategy.  I don't really want to get into his beliefs, his platform, his views or his goals for America.  This is just a discussion about his approach so far.  I will try to be as unbiased and as objective as possible.  

It is the tradition for most candidates to start the campaign trail using an exploratory committee.  An Exploratory Committee is a process sanctioned by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to "test the waters" to determine feasibility for a presidential campaign without wasting too much money.  It affords a potential candidate some protection, monetary and otherwise.  They are permitted to raise some funding, but they are limited.  From the would-be candidate's perspective, it's a bit of a shelter:  You can find out if you have some public support without getting too far into paperwork or their own bank accounts (or those of their supporters).  This is especially true of a currently elected official who intends to continue to practice politics whether or not they follow the path to candidacy.  After all, you don't want to waste the money of your constituents if you don't really have a chance.  

In an uncommon (but not entirely unprecedented) maneuver, Senator Cruz leapfrogged over the Exploratory Committee process and officially threw his hat into the ring as a candidate for the 2016 election.  The election is a long ways off, specifically 594 days (as of this writing).  

Is it strategy, arrogance or sheer ignorance?

I'm going to give Senator Cruz the benefit of the doubt and strike ignorance from the list.   He's not in this position by accident, and I do believe he fully understands the weight of this decision.  As for arrogance, let's just say that it would be nonobjective of me to consider that a factor, especially since it is an immeasurable factor.  So we are going to have to assume it's a strategy.  

But will it work?

The move is a bold one that puts him in the media spotlight early.  On one hand, that could be a good thing as it will rile up the supporters and potentially earn him a good support base early on in the process.  In terms of his self-proclaimed grass-roots approach, that is probably a wise move simply because the base needs time to grow before it can gain enough momentum to perpetuate him through the election (which is, again, 594 days away).  Based on what I've read and what I have garnered about the man, I do believe that is his strategy.    

The strategy is a gamble, however.  There are two key aspects of this type of campaign that could work against Mr. Cruz.  First is the "stamina factor".  Even in a grass-roots campaign, you need supporters that have the ability to carry you through the long haul.  Whatever motivates his supporters now is fizzle out by the time election day comes around.  Can his support base keep full vigor and maintain enthusiasm for all that time?  Some portion of his support base will fall off the bandwagon well before the election; many of which for sheer lack of stamina or a decline in motivation.    

The other factor is media hype.  For better or for worse, the "news" about Cruz's bid for president will likely have faded before other would-be candidates officially throw their hat into the ring.  By the time Rand Paul crunches his data from straw poles as part of his Electoral Committee, by the time Donald Trump inevitably informs the public he won't run, Cruz will have been a thing of the past.  Well, not literally.  But as everyone is announcing the big news about their own candidacy, Cruz's news will have been reduced to "visiting [some town] to say [some stuff]".  That could work for him.  While the media is busy trying to dig up facts (or gossip) about the newly announced candidates, Cruz will have been well past that stage and - to be frank - mostly forgotten in that context.  But it will likely work against him.  Even if the media is slinging mud or running negative press against the other candidates, Cruz will be on the back burner getting little press.  Even bad press (for the other candidates) is still keeping their names in the minds of voters; but not Cruz's name.  

But here's where I'm most confused about Cruz's strategy:  He has no data.  Unlike all of the candidates who will have gone through the Exploratory Committee, Cruz has no idea where he stands right now.  He doesn't know if he'll have enough of a support base, he doesn't know where he'll get his private funding and he has no idea if he'll get any votes.  Without such data, his team has no idea where to focus their efforts to fill in the gaps nor do they have any idea where to start campaigning for money and other resources.  In short, Cruz has made an official bid for President while completely in the dark.  When other would-be candidates officially make their declarations, they will have all of that data in-hand.  And sure, by then, maybe Cruz will as well.  But he'll be floundering up until that point, without the protect afforded to him through the Exploratory Committee procedures.  

Only time will tell if this is a good strategy or not.  I, for one, am curious how this will play out.  What do you predict?  
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Yup
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PS - it's not just Fox News.  Many people get their "news" from social media these days.  And unlike most journalists, they will spread information without checking facts.  So it's fair to say that many of those who believe the ACA has been a burden garnered that false information from social media.  

Check the facts, because social media won't really do that for you.

I know it's very meta of me to say that here on social media.  I do check against many sources before re-posting things.  I expect you to do the same.  That is my way of saying that I don't expect you to fully trust me either and I won't be offended if you feel the need to fact check me as well. 
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D. Travis North

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Pretty much paints a clear picture to me.  Especially Myth #6 about carrying a gun for self defense.  Those carrying guns for self defense are 4.5 times more likely to get shot and 4.2 times more likely to die than an unarmed person.  

Sport shooting and hunting aside, I Still have not heard a legitimate argument as to why anyone needs to own or carry a gun.  
Fact-checking some of the gun lobby's favorite arguments shows they're full of holes.
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Don't live in Arkansas?  This Bill could still impact you if it becomes law.  Personally, I feel such a law is unconstitutional.  But furthermore, it would get in the way of the press and news coverage.  I've read through a little of the bill, and I believe that some of the fear about the bill is a bit contrived.  However, the fact that it can be contrived that way is reason enough to veto the bill simply because someone's lawyer could probably distort the law enough to legitimately impact photographers all over the world.  Taken at face value, the bill is pretty over-reaching.
Prominent photography groups are sounding the alarm about a new bill that was just passed by the Arkansas Senate. SB-79, the "Personal Rights Protection Ac
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She shouldn't need to take such action, but I'm glad she is.
Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris is going to court to try to void a ballot initiative that demands the shooting death of all gay people.
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Then of course, how fabulous would the little blurbs by the advocates of each position be..?
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I'm a big fan of #19 and #40.  
 
40 Ways to Stay #Creative for Designers 
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It just occurred to me:  Senator Ted Cruz looks like James Woods.

#randomthought  
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Have him in circles
826 people
Eliot Pearson's profile photo
reggie miller's profile photo
Tammy Williams's profile photo
Nic Granleese's profile photo
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Constantin T. Mazilu's profile photo
David Thompson's profile photo
Al Ferreira's profile photo
christopher kimball's profile photo
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Story
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Photographer, Landscape Architect, Geek
Introduction

As a Landscape Architect, I create welcoming and habitable spaces. As a Photographer, I strive to exhibit the beauties of spaces, even if they are traditionally thought of as "ugly". In either case, it is my goal to identify, define and showcase the elements that humans find appealing.

I am the founder and editor of Shutter Photo Magazine which has been a source of inspiration and learning for hobbyist photographers for over three years.  Many of my personal photographic works are available for purchase or for licensing - more information can be found at the official D. Travis North Photography website.

Bragging rights
I never climbed Mt. Everest.
Work
Occupation
Landscape Architect & Photographer
Employment
  • D. Travis North Photography
    Photographer, 2010 - present
  • Shutter Photo Magazine
    Editor, 2008 - present
  • Bohler Engineering
    Landscape Architect, Photographer, 2001 - present
D. Travis North's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
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