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Colin McMillen
Works at Google
Attended Carnegie Mellon University
Lives in Boston
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Occupation
Software Engineer
Employment
  • Google
    Staff Software Engineer, 2009 - present
  • reCAPTCHA
    Co-Founder, 2007 - 2009
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Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Boston
Previously
Minneapolis - Pittsburgh - Tokyo
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  • 0h h1
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I proposed to my wife using obfuscated Perl code. My Erdős number is 4.
Education
  • Carnegie Mellon University
    Ph.D. Computer Science, 2003 - 2009
  • University of Minnesota
    B.S. Computer Science, 1999 - 2003
  • Robbinsdale Cooper High School
    1995 - 1999

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Colin McMillen

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So a lot of folks are like "if Cruz still had a chance before yesterday's Indiana primary, why doesn't Bernie have a chance? He has 45% of the pledged delegates and Hillary has 55%, and he won Indiana and a whole string of other states recently, so clearly it's still really close except GAHH, SUPERDELEGATES WE HATES THEM"

Here's the problem for Bernie, though: Democratic primaries don't have winner-take-all states. This is a huge difference from the Republican primaries. With winner-take-all states, there's a lot more chance for a relatively small number of votes to cause a large swing in the number of pledged delegates for a candidate. Bernie "won" Indiana last night, but he won it by 5%, which only nets him +6 delegates over Clinton. He's behind by ~250 (non-super) delegates, so winning Indiana by only 5% actually put him further behind in terms of probability of winning the entire contest.

In order to close the gap on pledged delegates (again, we're ignoring superdelegates here), Bernie needs 70-75% of the remaining primary votes. [1] Sanders "winning" a state by anything less than 70% of the vote is actually losing ground to Clinton.

We like to talk about people "winning" states because it makes for a nice clean media narrative, but the media mostly ignore this huge difference between the Republican and Democratic primary systems. To an approximation, the Republican system is closer to the general presidential election (Electoral College), and the Democratic system is closer to a national popular vote. It's a simple fact of math that Bernie could "win" every remaining state and still lose the nomination, because that's how far behind he's been in the "popular vote" from all the previous Democratic primaries.

With Cruz dropping out, the primaries are effectively over: the next president of the US will either be Clinton or Trump.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/30/upshot/trump-clinton-delegate-calculator.html
[2] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-is-even-further-behind-in-votes-than-he-is-in-delegates/ -- note that this article is a ~month old, and he's effectively fallen further behind since then.
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+Todd Underwood Why is that?
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Colin McMillen

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There's nothing quite like a little bit of Pooh.
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Colin McMillen

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Currently live-streaming Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate, which is my favorite 3DS game in recent memory :) Finally getting a chance to test out my new 3DS video-capture hardware :)
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It still requires a hardware modification, and there's still only really one guy in Japan who does it: http://www.3dsvideocapture.com

His company is hugely backlogged; I ordered in November and it arrived in April.
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Colin McMillen

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wolololo
 
I got the flour shell bowl
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PEPPERONI PIZZA
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Colin McMillen

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One must properly attend to one's frog...they ARE special!
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Have them in circles
10,356 people
Tobi Catron's profile photo
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Nou J's profile photo
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Fred Akalin's profile photo
manpreet saggu's profile photo
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Colin McMillen

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free idea: TED Talks,
except the Ted is Cruz
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I quite enjoyed his last talk.
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Colin McMillen

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TIL the probability of a US nickel landing on its edge is higher than I expected: 1 in 6000 or so.
http://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.48.2547
An experiment is reported in which an object which can rest in multiple stable configurations is dropped with randomized initial conditions from a height onto a flat surface. The effect of varying the object's shape on the probability of landing in the less stable configuration is measured. A dynamical model of the experiment is introduced and solved by numerical simulations. Results of the experiments and simulations are in good agreement, confi...
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Yep! This was a good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTvRsvBXeCE
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Colin McMillen

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@MerriamWebster did you change the definition of racism to "something only white people can be" or is still the same old "wrong" definition? Uckema - Photog · 3h3 hours ago. Uckema - Photog @Uckema. @kevbatgirl are you trolling?
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That last example sentence reads like something off Urban Dictionary.
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Colin McMillen

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Amilia St. John is my new favorite person.
My name is Amilia St. John and I am the daughter of Alex St. John. Yes, that one. For those not following the horrific t…
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Colin McMillen

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I got a chance to play this on the JoCo Cruise, and it seemed pretty good. Of course it's hard to tell the depth of an abstract strategy game from a single play. But the mechanics are very clean & simple, yet the strategy felt very subtle.

Really what sold me on it, though, was the fact that Rothfuss initially told James Ernest "there's no way you could possibly design a game that matches the Tak in the books -- I've tried and it was awful".

Apparently James Ernest can't back a year later and said "so I designed Tak for you" and apparently it matched Rothfuss' vision so well that now this is the game he's thinking of when he writes.
 
Rothfuss fans, time to get your copy of Tak.
Tak is a new abstract strategy game created by James Ernest and Patrick Rothfuss, based on the game in The Wise Man's Fear.
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you're welcome
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Colin McMillen

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The first rule of Living In A Box Club is: don't tell the fire marshal about Living In A Box Club.
Peter Berkowitz, whose story of living in a wooden box amid San Francisco housing crisis went viral, forced out after city inspectors ruled it a fire hazard
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Erika Rice Scherpelz's profile photoSam Hopewell's profile photo
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I wonder what changes would have to be made to make it not illegal.  I feel like turning warehouses into high density engineer habitrails is the future.
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