Here's part 2 of my series on Google' s driverless car. Love to get your reactions.
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- - I think it will be a ketchup effect. Starting with insurance companies offering lower rates to owners of selv driving cars (SDC). Different speed limits making SDC faster. As more people switch to SDC, highway lanes will be reserved for their use, relegating the slower, human driven cars to a single lane. Cities will start charging non-SDC to enter the city center. Suddenly it will all reach a point where everyone will switch over.Jan 26, 2013
- You paint a very rosy future, but I think it's a long way off. I'm not giving up my airbags just because a Google computer is behind the wheel; I still need them if a drunk driver hits me. A lot of the advantages you site won't happen until all the cars on the road are self-driving and shared. I think there will be a big consumer resistance to the shared-car model. And what is your estimate in the length of time between when the first truly autonomous car comes online and the last human-piloted car is retired?Jan 27, 2013
- Cities/highly congested areas will get to mostly autonomous probably a decade after the cars become affordable, and effectively all autonomous a decade after that. Once more than 50% of voters own them in a given area the regulations favoring them will accelerate. Heavy and costly conventional safety features will decline steadily in pace with declining accident rates. Courts will be increasingly likely to permanently strip drunks and inept drivers of their license once a credible alternative to driving is available.
Enthusiasts are going to want to continue to drive but it will have to be on private roads or in rural areas. Cars that can be driven will go from an expensive necessity to expensive hobby.
+Kent Smith even if high volume traffic lights don't go away immediately it's easy to imagine crossings that were candidates for lights not getting them, or borderline existing lights being taken out to save money.Jan 27, 2013
- I agree there's a strong platform opportunity. But why free? Many car safety features now cost thousands. I think "free" might be part of a business model decision but not required.Jan 27, 2013
- regarding how long for benefits... some studies show that congestion can be significantly affected by change in small percentage of population. some of the safety and cost benefits would accrue to early adopters immediately. i agree secondary effects would take time. would it depend on 100% adoption?Jan 27, 2013
- BTW,, if you scan "Billion-Dollar Lessons," you'll see that I'm not a utopianJan 27, 2013