I'm visiting Ben Gurion University this week, and attended a lecture by Zvi Yehezkeli, who is an Arab-affairs commentator for an Israeli TV channel. He argued a few unexpected, but rather plausible points, and I would be curious to hear whether you think them believable.
1. The fault line in the middle east is not Israel vs. Arabs, but Sunni vs. Shia. A country like Iran really doesn't care about Israel, but is preparing to fight the Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia. A confirming piece of evidence is the obvious displeasure of the Gulf states over Obama's overtures to Iran, and the refusal of most leaders to accept his invitation to Washington.
2. The "Arab spring" had nothing to do with democracy. It was all about revenge on the previous round of rulers. His evidence includes what happened in Egypt, where a rebellion put into power another brand of dictator (Morsi), who was in turn revenged upon and thrown out. It seems that Obama completely misperceived the Tahrir Square protests as being for democracy and therefore got the US involved in a wave of revenge, much to our later embarrassment.