I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed, but since about 2am the Conservatives have been extraordinarily quiet. When the exit poll showing unexpected success for the Conservatives came through, Theresa May and Micheal Gove on TV were understandably cautious, and as the reality of the situation became clearer they weren't as happy as you'd expect. Then they all disappeared.
I wonder if they're in shock. Their manifesto and subsequent announcements were expensive, £8bn for the NHS, new roads, housing, infrastructure, increasing tax allowances, saving incentives, childcare funding, lowering all sorts of taxes. And there's other big costs on the horizon: more social care, growing pension costs, defense spending, many more children to enter primary education. And cuts promised, that £12bn on working age welfare that they've said aren't prepared.
There's also problems with the economy: consistently lower growth than promised, bigger debts and deficits than forecast, a huge problem where productivity is lower than France.
And political issues: a promised referendum on EU membership with associated instability to markets, currency, industry, investment and employment. There's no effective UKIP but plenty of UKIP voters to fan the political right.
I think they're in crisis. They're not in a coalition any more, they cant blame the other party. Their claims that economic problems are the fault of the last Labour government, and their ideological love of austerity is increasingly remote. They can't drop their bumper manifesto for a thin coalition document.
The Conservatives have now got a majority, the buck stops with them. They're working hard on how they're going to spin this unexpected success.#ge2015 #election #conservatives