I like this analysis but I think you've missed a third possibility: Magical phenomena are due to physical principles which we could understand by scientific study, but we can't manipulate them directly at our present tech level, so experimentation is infeasible and at best we can only theorize in a vacuum. At the same time, there are alien intelligences which can and do exploit these principles. They can be communicated with, but their motives and desires are only poorly understood, so asking them to do something for you may or may not work and can be dangerous.
This is a first-order model of what historical occultists thought they were doing: invoking "demons" or "angels" that could do things they could not do themselves, at great personal risk. In a present-day or near-future fictional setting it also gives a concrete reason why magic is poorly understood: we can't do the experiments we would need to do to understand the physical principles of it, the psychology of the alien entities is genuinely difficult to get a grip on, and even the most sympathetic of them are not inclined to help people all the time.