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A new blog post from me about when to hedge on a bet and the proper use of bet value when making bets in general
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My mass mailer I've just sent out for UFC Salt Lake City:

Afternoon all!

I did a lot of tape watching for this card (because I'm ill and couldn't be bothered moving to do proper work), so you'd think I'd have a load of picks. Well, I would summarise this card as a giant bowl of who the hell knows.

As usual, I focussed my attention on the undercard but I had a look at most fights, other than the two main events. Essentially all the odds look about right to me. You've got a load of favourites with glaring weaknesses, or in a couple of instances, a couple of dogs which really could win but they too have glaring weaknesses which make them impossible to tip. Even in terms of over unders, there are so many random variables that although I was super close to just putting a couple of units on one or two overs, I decided that it really wasn't good enough value.

On a positive note, I think it should be a fun card to watch! Plus if you wanna put some "bit of fun" bets on, I'll give you a few I'm doing.

Thales Leites vs Chris Camozzi
Lots of people going Camozzi here. He might win but I think the odds are right. Miranda was one of those fighters I was desperately looking for the right dog to pick against him because I didn't think he was that good. I couldn't pull the trigger and bet on Camozzi against him because I didn't think Camozzi was that good but he just about got the job done. It seems like he's taken over those overrated points from Miranda and brought them into this fight, in the minds of lots of cappers. Leites is largely uninspiring but I think he's a better fighter and he'll probably win a decision. A small bet on that at 3.0 is decent money. Also the over's probably decent money in general, though I've personally just parlayed in the over 1.5 with some other stuff because I didn't research it enough.

Zak Cummings vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Stats wise, Zak is a good pick. Southpaw against orthodox. Slight dog (which offers the best ROI for blind betting a range of odds). Possibly the better wrestler. Possibly the better cardio. I just couldn't bet him though and dropped the research after about 2-3 mins of watching one of his fights. I can't remember why exactly but he's just really uninspiring and Ponz has a massive heart and really good power. Again, the odds look about right to me, which means you should no bet.

Marcin Tybura vs Viktor Pesta
This is a frustrating one. Why oh why would you be a professional athlete and have cardio as bad as Viktor Pesta? He trains with a good team, has really good fundamental wrestling ability, has an OK jab, has a good chin but is fundamentally totally unbettable because his cardio is GONE by the start of R2. There is every chance he'll control the clinch and end up on top in R1 and possibly even R2. I still wouldn't bet him in play if he's won both the first two rounds because he's looked virtually dead in R3 whenever his fights have gone that long. Honestly, just appalling.
Tybura on the other hand has OKish cardio but again, glaring weaknesses in the fact that he just allows you to press him against the cage (which will be Viktor's MO), making him unbettable too. Apparently he's got a new striking coach in for this camp and honestly, he's not a bad fighter, so if it's 1-1 going into the third round, I'll bet him in play.
Oh and this was one of the fights I reeeeeeeeeally nearly tipped the over 1.5 at 1.73 decimal odds. I think there's a 70% chance of that coming off becuase you've got two pretty passive guys with low output, good chins and not much power... but I just couldn't even rely on Pesta to last a round and a half without having a heart attack.

Court McGee vs Dominique Steele
I didn't really look at this fight much but over 1.5 is a decent bet. I want to see how Court's chin is looking after his last fight. Remember from my previous breakdowns that he's a cardio beast so there's potential in play action to be had betting on Court.

Teruto Ishihara vs Horacio Gutierrez
Ishihara is flashy with a limited gas tank. He's someone I'm looking to bet against long term because he looks really good early, then tanks late on. However, my notes on Gutierrez say he's wild / OK standing but terrible off his back and doesn't try and escape so I didn't even bother scouting the fight. Hopefully Ishihara wins then gets put in there against a wrestler with good gas.

David Teymur vs Jason Novelli
This should be a fun fight. Teymur looks a fairly small, slight 155lber and he's facing a much taller, longer guy here. They're both good kickboxing stylists with decent fundamentals elsewhere. Teymur looks slightly sharper to me and looks like he hits harder though it's virtually impossible to tell when they haven't faught the same level of opponent. Again, I think the odds are about right. I was vaguely tempted to bet this going to a decision but I didnt in the end.

Trevor Smith vs Joseph Gigliotti
This fight is super frustrating. I reeeeeeeeally wanted to bet Trevor Smith. He has bordering on top level clinch control and wrestling but he has such a terrible chin that it makes him virtually unbettable. But for his chin, I'd envisage him clinching up, getting a takedown and wearing Gigliotti out from top position.
I think Joe's a pretty good prospect but man, he is so raw and he's a small guy for 185lbs (he's tried to make 170lbs before but couldn't quite make it). Against really low level opposition he's dominated but quite often dominated in quite a ponderous way, clinching up and grinding things out. I don't think his takedowns look top level and I think he's relying on power quite a bit, rather than technique. That said, he's from a really good wrestling camp and he did escape from the bottom well the one time I've seen him there. He also looks like he improved his standup significantly for his last fight so who knows how much he's improving day to day.
I just could not get hold of his Brendan Tierney fight, otherwise I might have made a pick here. It would have been an extremely risky pick on Smith if I did go for it, because Joe can crack and probably has better cardio. I have put a small personal bet on Smith by decision / unanimous decision at 6.5 and 8.5 respectively but I'm fully expecting to lose that money... I'd say there is around a 35% chance of that happening, so the odds were just too good.

Maryna Moroz vs Danielle Taylor
Taylor is tiny. 5 foot even, facing someone 5'7" with a 7 inch reach advantage. Considering how highly (over) rated Moroz was and the fact this was a late call up for Taylor, you'd think think this was an absolute lock odds wise but people seem to have caught on to the fact Moroz isn't that amazing. I've bet Moroz personally for 3/4 of a unit but she's another fighter on the card with a really poor fight IQ. She'll stay on the bottom for sustained periods and open herself up to losing rounds that way. She's also been dropped before. Having said that, I don't think she should have much problem picking Taylor apart from the outside and I wouldn't be surprised if she gets a TKO stoppage. You can get that at 8.5. I haven't bet it personally but I might put a fiver on it for a bit of fun then cry as Moroz comes out and clinches up and stalls. Honestly though, I've not seen anything of Taylor on the ground (I couldn't get hold of her most important fights), so maybe she's terrible on the ground and could get subbed... maybe she's a beast and could control from top position. Again, a massive number of unknowns.

So that's all I had a look at. Not sure if this will be an awesome event for in play or an absolute stinker... it depends which of the unknowns rear their heads!

I'm not sure UFC202 looks much better to be honest. There are a load of unpredictable guys on that card on gut instinct. I haven't looked at anything yet though so we'll see closer to the time.

Good luck tonight!
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