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Anthony Miller (Tony)
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Anthony Miller (Tony)

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This is an excellent short overview of what's going on with the Euro and Greece.
 
Irresponsible or unavoidable borrowing?

Growing up in Europe, I didn't pay much attention to the construction of the Euro, and whatever little I remember has nothing to do with the economics of it. Now, older, having lived in the US for a while, with a Greek wife, I'm looking at the way the Euro is unraveling and I've been using the opportunity to try to figure out how it works (or, rather, why it doesn't).

The core mechanism that allows multiple states to share the same currency is pretty simple: since the weaker states can't devalue their currency to compensate for their trade deficit with the stronger ones, money has to flow from the stronger economies to the weaker ones in order to maintain the balance.

We see that in the US: as measured in GDP per capita, there's about a 2:1 ratio between the strongest states and the weakest ones. To compensate for that, a lot of money flows between states, through the federal government. Most taxes in the US are federal taxes, i.e. about 75%, and the federal government doesn't necessarily spend the money it collects in the exact states where it collects them. As an example, every year about 130 billion dollars paid by California in federal taxes don't make it back into California. Texas and New York are the two other states that have a negative balance of more than 100 billion each. For those 3 states, that outflow on money represents 5.7%, 7.2% and 7.4% of their respective GDPs. California is literally sending money to other states so that those states can buy California stuff. The same is true for Texas, New York, and about 20 of the 50 states that are sending money to the other 30.

Looking back in history, the Marshall Plan followed a somewhat similar logic: the US sent aid to Europe, to allow Europeans to buy US goods, which was both a stabilizing mechanism for European currencies that otherwise were in a devaluation spiral, and an outlet for the huge US industrial production. For reference, the Marshall Plan amounted to 120 billion dollars (in today's dollars) over 4 years, which is tiny compared to the amount of money that the federal government now redistributes across state lines.

We can compare that to the situation in the Eurozone/EU, where the GDP per capita varies by a factor of about 2.3:1. Germany's balance in the EU budget is negative by less than 9 billion Euros. France's and Italy's follow at approximately 6.5 billion and 6 billion. Germany's 9 billion Euros is tiny compared to California's 130 billion dollars, especially since Germany's GDP is 60% larger than that of California. Since the US and EU economies have approximately the same size, that's a reasonably apples-to-apples comparison. The biggest negative balance that a Eurozone country has with the EU is about 0.41% of its GDP. The biggest positive balance is 1.3%. Within the US, only 4 states out of 50 fall within that range.

That's the problem right there: Germany is not flowing enough money out to other Eurozone countries to compensate for its own very strong economy. That's true of other rich European countries as well, e.g. Netherlands, Austria, France.

From the Greek point of view, the only way to get that money to flow in order to maintain balance had been for the government to borrow. That wasn't irresponsible borrowing. That was mechanical, predictable. Greece's poor historical discipline around government finances only accelerated an unavoidable process, but it's not a root cause.

In fact, predictably, pushing Greece into austerity made things worse, much worse: with the root cause being Greece's relatively weak economy compared to the rest of the Eurozone, an austerity approach can only put Greece in a position where it needs even more money to flow in in order to maintain balance.

Even if we assume that all of Greece's debts get somehow forgiven with no further constraints and that Greece manages to run a balanced government budget, it would still be in an unsustainable position in the current Eurozone as its weaker economy would force additional money to flow in. Unless the Eurozone very significantly increases the amount of money that it redistributes across borders, Greece should get out of the Euro at the first opportunity, i.e. literally Monday morning, July 6.

Worse, with Greece out, it's only a matter of time for another weak country to find itself in the same position: that might be Portugal, Spain, Italy, or if Bulgaria, Romania or even Hungary join quickly enough that might go through that same death spiral quickly enough to see the Eurozone as a revolving door, with barely enough time to come in before being back out.

Once that first batch of weak countries is out, there'll always be more that'll be at the bottom of the scale and will find themselves in the same position. France is comfortably in the middle of the pack within Europe today, but attrition will eventually push it toward the bottom, and France having to leave the Euro is a true nightmare scenario for everyone.

In order for the Eurozone to survive, its rich members will need to send a lot more money to the poorer ones: the rich ones literally can't continue reaping benefits from a currency based on the European average without sharing those benefits with the poorer ones that bring that European average down. Otherwise, the Euro will consume country after country until it hits a country that is literally too big to fail.
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Anthony Miller (Tony)

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This. This is why I love Google. They make so much money off of ad revenue, and yet they want to help make sure the clicks aren't ACCIDENTAL
 
According to Google, more than 50 per cent of mobile ads are clicked accidentally.
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Anthony Miller (Tony)

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This was everything I wanted in a Megaman X cover. 
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If he did every stage song from X, X2, and X3 I would die happy!
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Caterpillar! 
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Ginny, they look like seeds from a bird feeder. I miss finding caterpillars that are non toxic.
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That's how the fanboy do.
 
Uhh
Two men are hospitalized after an alcohol-fueled argument began over which phone is better: iPhone or Samsung.Tulsa police say a woman found a man covered in blood, stumbling around the parking lot...
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Had to give the Corvette a series of hip checks to get the door open this morning. It's icy out there, be careful.
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Ira Glass

Nobody tells this to people who are beginners,
I wish someone told me.
All of us who do creative work, we get into it because we have good taste.
But there is this gap.
For the first couple years you make stuff, it’s just not that good.
It’s trying to be good, it has potential, but it’s not.
But your taste, the thing that got you into the game, is still killer.
And your taste is why your work disappoints you.
A lot of people never get past this phase, they quit.
Most people I know who do interesting, creative work went through years of this.
We know our work doesn’t have this special thing that we want it to have.
We all go through this.
And if you are just starting out or you are still in this phase, you gotta know its normal and the most important thing you can do is do a lot of work.
Put yourself on a deadline so that every week you will finish one story.
It is only by going through a volume of work that you will close that gap, and your work will be as good as your ambitions.
And I took longer to figure out how to do this than anyone I’ve ever met. It’s gonna take awhile.
It’s normal to take awhile. You’ve just gotta fight your way through.

I look back on stuff I made even 3 years ago and think "ugh". And I'm sure it will be just the same 3 years from now. I'm very hard on myself, but it's the only way to improve.

From my experiences with competitive gaming, olympic lifting, and independent development, I really believe there is no such thing as talent. Talent gets you above the crowd, when everyone is a beginner. After that, the 10000 hour rule applies.
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Have him in circles
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Anthony Miller (Tony)

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"There's a lot of caching."
Haha
 
There is no cloud. It's just someone else's computer. Credit http://xkcd.net ‪#‎Funny‬ ‪#‎Sysadmin‬ ‪#‎cloudcomputing‬ ‪#‎Unix‬ ‪#‎Linux‬ ‪#‎IT‬
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Yay! Looks like my Moto 360 will be getting its 5.1.1 update soon
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Galaxy S6 camera is quite spectacular 
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Wow... That's a clear picture... 
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One thing I learned today. The iPhone 6 sure looks a lot like the Samsung ATIV S from 2012.
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Yes.

DuckTales Theme Song With Real Ducks: http://youtu.be/txj6ROnIUIo
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Have him in circles
86 people
Denise Jacoby's profile photo
Sean Murray's profile photo
April Coulby's profile photo
Samuel Reading's profile photo
rodrigo juan's profile photo
Monica Allen's profile photo
Alex Wilson (DJ Chase)'s profile photo
Belinda Gilbert's profile photo
Evan Haas's profile photo
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Apps with Google+ Sign-in
  • Dead Eyes
  • Implosion
  • Traffic Racer
  • Silly Sausage in Meat Land
  • Goat Simulator
  • Make Them Fight
  • ICE
  • Timberman
  • Blek
  • TwoDots
  • Ready Steady Bang
  • Terraria
  • Empires and Allies
  • FOTONICA
  • Bejeweled 3
  • Peggle Blast
  • Spring Ninja
  • AdVenture Capitalist
  • MuhanSangsaGlobal
  • Dragon, Fly!
  • Prehistoric worm
  • Amazing Ninja
  • Bitcoin Billionaire
  • Make Them Fall
  • ZigZag
  • One More Line!
  • Monument Valley
  • Tomb Raider I
  • Project Default Service Account
  • Super Hexagon
  • Where's Waldo & Friends
  • Bus Simulator 2015
Work
Skills
Software Development and Planning, TCP/IP Networking, Military
Anthony Miller (Tony)'s +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
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GrooVe IP - Free Calls + Text
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Meetup
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Finding the perfect Meetup for you to learn something, do something, or share something has never been easier! Learn a new language, join a

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Chromecast
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Chromecast is the easiest way to enjoy online video and anything from the web on your TV. Plug it into any HDTV and control it with your exi

DashClock Battery Extension
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Headphone Connect
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If you plug in your headphones, wouldn't you want Android to know your favorite headphone apps? Now it can! Easily assign apps to launch as

ES File Explorer File Manager
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ES, 300 millions global downloads, file manager trend leader on Android! Rated as one of best resource management tools on Android market.ES

Burger Bros.
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The Ubuntu Edge is the next generation of personal computing: smartphone and desktop PC in one state-of-the-art device.

Swappa For Sale: Listing THU467 for Samsung Galaxy S 4 (AT&T)
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For sale on Swappa: a gently-used THU467 Samsung Galaxy S 4 (AT&T) for $530. Buy safely on Swappa and save time and money.

When I first moved into the Colony, everyone that lived around me was fairly respectful. The leasing staff was nice, and even though the maintenance crew didn't always get things fixed the first time, they were at least nice and punctual. Sometime after I renewed my lease, my neighbors started getting replaced with young college kids. They party late into the night, drink, scream, do drugs... A police presence will stop them temporarily, but they'll be back at it before long. This isn't just one neighbor, this is almost all of my neighbors now. The leasing office doesn't seem to care what type of people they have in the community, and you are practically required to talk to them face to face to get any action. Some people actually need to sleep because they are adults. If you are an adult as well, stay clear of the Colony at Kenilworth.
• • •
Public - 10 months ago
reviewed 10 months ago
Burger Bros thoroughly impressed me with quality, taste, and atmosphere. Your burger might take a little longer to prepare here than at some of the other respectable burger chains, but maybe that's where the magic happens. Depending on how you like your burger, Burger Bros is absolutely on par with Five Guys and the like. The difference here seems to be time. Your patty is made just for you. There aren't 20 patties cooking at once, and that's alright. I got a side order of onion rings and, I must say, they rate second from the top of my favorite onion rings now(which is a good thing, it's impossible to top my number one pick). Another thing to note is that, even though the burger is just as big as Five Guys', after finishing my meal I didn't feel like I just finished eating a whole deep fried cow. TL;DR: Eat at Burger Bros, you won't regret it.
• • •
Public - a year ago
reviewed a year ago
After trying some of the quick, in and out, hair cutteries around, I decided I needed to find an actual barber shop. Sportsmans was highly recommended by friends and family and rightly so. Every barber in there has clearly been cutting hair for a lifetime, they are friendly, and they remember you. I travel about half an hour every time I need a haircut just to come here.
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
This is a great place to grab some food with friends or just drink and socialize. Every Monday they have team trivia, and I know at least one day of the weekend (Friday nights) they have live musicians. The bartenders are friendly and knowledgeable, and the music is never so loud you can't hear your companions. I've enjoyed every meal I've ordered, and their onion rings are possibly the best I've ever had.
Food: ExcellentDecor: ExcellentService: Excellent
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
6 reviews
Map
Map
Map
Upon pulling up to the restaurant, we had some reservations about eating lunch there, but we are all glad we did. As soon as you walk inside you see a very tastefully decorated dining area. The menu is loaded with great choices, and the lunch items are cheap, perfectly portioned, and comes with bread and a salad. My group ordered different items from the lunch specials, and we were all extremely satisfied with the quality of food. I would absolutely eat here again if I lived closer.
• • •
Food: ExcellentDecor: Very GoodService: Excellent
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
I came to Okada to eat some sushi and was very impressed. Their sushi menu is very large and, even though they seemed moderately busy, I received my food and drink shortly after sitting down and ordering. The food itself was excellent, and I plan on going back to try some other dishes.
Food: ExcellentDecor: ExcellentService: Excellent
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago