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Andrew Gorospe
Into tech and I am a fan of the resource based economy concept and the singularity
Into tech and I am a fan of the resource based economy concept and the singularity

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The first prediction listed may start arguments

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So we have a huge potential to create increased productivity in the home and release us from the daily drudgery to increase productivity, increase the global economic output, but it's really when you combine AI & Robotics together that you have magic happening.-+peter h. diamandis 

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The greatest documentary on automation I have seen yet. 
Will Work For Free -- program on technological unemployment in the UK. Unlike Martin Ford who simply says "all industries will be affected", Sam Vallely goes through them one by one, starting with High Street retail. Retail is the largest employment sector, but is going away, getting replaced by websites and smartphone apps, leaving a small number of specialist stores. For entertainment products, like DVDs, traditional supermarkets are expanding into entertainment products, and pawn shops are reselling used entertainment products, but the real threats are, digital downloading, and piracy. The failure of these stores is a good thing because of less pollution from DVD cases that fill landfills or are incinerated, producing toxic chemicals. For electronics, online reviews and actually less biased that in-store salespeople. What about clothes? Don't people have to try on clothing before they buy? When Internaçionale launched their website in 2012, the website took in more revenue than all the physical stores combined. Clothing doesn't seem to have an intrinsic immunity to online alternatives. There's self-checkout and vending machines, and new vending machines with i-sample, an optical sensor system that can determine gender and age. Only things like tattooing and hairdressing appear to be immune. Warehouse jobs are being replaced by Kiva robots.

In manufacturing, robots are becoming more adaptive, less pre-programmed and brittle, and more flexible, able to produce new products with less re-programming. Baxter works for about £3/hour. Smartphone apps replace a vast array of paper and electronic products. Entertainment appliances are being replaced by smart TVs that play content off the internet, making the appliances exist in virtual form only. 3D printing in the future will allow people to download and print many products.

2.5% of UK jobs involve driving a vehicle. Self-driving cars are coming.

In the agriculture industry, what jobs are left are being replaced by robotic cow milking, automation of crop cultivation, vertical farming and hydroponics.

Automation is starting to enter the health care industry. Smartphone apps can send your heart rate directly to your cardiologist. A 15-year-old from Maryland discovers a way of detecting cancer that looks like it is 99% accurate, 168x faster, 26,000x cheaper than existing methods. Hospitals are getting robot couriers and telepresence robots.

In the food industry, McDonald's is rolling out kiosks in Europe, and in the US, McDonalds has started replacing drive-thrus with voice recognition systems. Momentum Machines has invented a burger-making machine that can make burgers to order, and FuA-Men Noodles is working on machines to replace chefs completely at restaurants like Panda Express.

Hotels are starting to use automatic check-in. Yotel in New York has motorized beds, and "Yobot" motorized luggage system, that sends your luggage directly to the airport through tunnels. Autonomous vacuum cleaners and window washers exist. But the biggest threat to the hotel industry might be sites like couchsurfing that allow people to bypass hotels entirely. (He doesn't mention Airbnb.)

Sandvik Automine is a system of automated trucks for the mining industry. They have improved drilling accuracy and increased mining production while eliminating jobs. Sandvik says they are confident mining can be 100% automated. Rio Tinto is using huge fully automated Komatsu trucks. Gemesis have made huge progress in producing artificial gem-quality diamonds. Sam Vallely speculates that artificial gold and silver could be made, too, but he's wrong about that -- unlike diamonds, gold and silver are elements (he needs to brush up on his knowledge of chemistry).

The construction industry is a huge source of employment. ISI has developed a contour crafting computer-controlled home construction process where an entire house can be constructed in a 3D printing process.

The education industry can be automated. The "hole in the wall" project in a slum in New Delhi showed kids can be taught by computer very easily without any formal training or adult supervision. Khan Academy consolidates knowledge in instructional videos in all the main academic subjects. University-level classes are offered by Coursera, which offers certificates, which have been used to gain employment.

The arts & entertainment industry will still exist because they don't rely on financial incentives (RSA talk by Dan Pink). For media distribution, Youtube could work better than traditional TV & cable. The film industry is the most profitable, and expensive, part of the entertainment industry, but CGI is getting closer and closer to reflecting reality. Video games are entirely CGI and have much lower budgets than films. Even Blender, the open source 3D modeling program, can produce impressive results.

Legal discovery work is being replaced by e-discovery software. Accounting work is being replaced by online accounting systems, and online transactions don't even need to be manually entered. Translation and interpretation services are being replaced by software like Lingo, Architectural work will be done in CAD systems and 3D printed.

Engineering, computer system design, photography, and scientific research, all fall under the umbrella of "creativity" and will exist regardless of paid employment. Advertising is under threat from online advertising like Youtube. Consulting services can be replaced by advanced voice recognition software.

What about administrative & support services? Computers can automate the typical information processing, filtering, and categorizing that administrative people do, just like how Facebook can pre-fill registration forms. Government information hubs could automate many tasks across industries.

For the finance & insurance industry, he talks about how the fractional reserve banking system is built on an assumption of continuous growth.

Robots still require energy. He thinks the world will switch to solar, rather than nuclear. Solar roads could provide enough energy for the US. He also looks at wind and geothermal energy.

What about machine maintenance? Machines need maintenance largely because of planned obsolescence. Simple things like nanoparticle coatings could prevent water and oils from getting on machine parts. So he doesn't think there need to be many jobs in machine maintenance in the future.

The solution to technological unemployment, he proposes, is a "sustainable economy", though he doesn't elaborate on how that would work. There could be, but doesn't have to be, a period of poverty and destitution, before we transition.

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these links along with @amazon prime air....

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