Facebook: The Complete Forensic Post-MortemWhile much has already been written on the topic of peak valuation, social bubbles popping, and the ethical social utility of yesterday’s historically overhyped IPO, nobody has done an analysis of the actual stock trading dynamics as in-depth as the following complete forensic post-mortem by Nanex.
Because more than anything, those tense 30 minutes between the scheduled open and the actual one (which just happened to coincide with the European close), showed just how reliant any form of public capital raising is on technology and electronic trading.
And to think there was a time when an IPO simply allowed a company to raise cash: sadly it has devolved to the point where a public offering is a policy statement in support of a broken capital market, which however is fully in the hands of SkyNet, as yesterday’s chain of events, so very humiliating for the Nasdaq, showed. From a delayed opening, to 2 hour trade confirmation delays, virtually everyone was in the dark about what was really happening behind the scenes!
As the analysis below shows, what happened was at times sheer chaos, where everything was hanging by a thread, because if FB had gotten the BATS treatment, it was lights out for the stock market. Well, the D-Day was avoided for now, but at what cost? And how much over the greenshoe Facebook stock overallotment did MS have to buy to prevent it from tumbling below $30 because as Reuters reminds us, “had Morgan Stanley bought all of the shares traded around $38 in the final 20 minutes of the day, it would have spent nearly $2 billion.”
What about the first defense of $38? In other words: in order to make some $67 million for its Investment Banking unit, was MS forced to eat a several hundred million loss in its sales and trading division just to avoid looking like the world’s worst underwriter ever?
We won’t know for a while, but in the meantime, here is a visual summary of the key events during yesterday’s far less than historic IPO.Read on: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-complete-forensic-post-mortem
The chart (5 millisecond interval) shows the result of the blast in trades and quotes when Nasdaq’s quote returned. Trades printed at least 900 milliseconds before quotes, an impossibility if orders are being routed according to regulations.
We have jokingly referred to this anomaly as fantaseconds.Nasdaq bids and offers (triangles), Nasdaq trades (circles) and NBBO (gray/yellow/red shading).