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Whom do you trust when it comes to election forecasts? Please fill me in:
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Michael Jobin's profile photoDrew Spencer's profile photoAdam Solomon's profile photoCosmic Log's profile photo
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When it's this close, not much. And those fixed voting machines favor GOP.
 
I think Intrade has to be the most reliable. Where people will put their money is a good indication of what will actually happen. I also generally trust fivethirtyeight. No one was criticizing Nate Silver's model before they knew what result it would predict.
 
Nate Silver at the NY Times and the Electionate blog at The New Republic. 
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