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Adrian Clavijo
Works at United States
Attends Western Governor's University
Lives in West Palm Beach Florida
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Adrian Clavijo

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mixed reaction in china
Donald Trump has frequently used China as a target of criticism.
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Adrian Clavijo

Conservative / Republican  - 
 
With Trump in, Bush will not 'participate' in White House contest
http://q13fox.com/2016/05/04/with-trump-in-bush-will-not-participate-in-white-house-contest/

WASHINGTON (CNN) — President George W. Bush is staying out of presidential campaign politics, a spokesman said Wednesday, an announcement that came just after Donald Trump become the Republic…
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Adrian Clavijo

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And the other shoe just dropped. The GOP knows they lost this, now the GOP is trying to figure out how to lose strategically.
The conservative website RedState wrote that the Senate should confirm President Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland.
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It's all Trump, Bernie and Clinton.
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Yes but ... He needs to win every primary at 70% or better. Or he need to convince the super delegates to support him. If it's close he may contest it, but... It's not even close.

To put it in perspective, in just pledged delegates, not counting super delegates. During the 08 election Hilary and Obama were about 90 delegates, maybe less, apart from eachother.

In these elections, Hilary is ahead by 300, not counting the super delegates.
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First they laughed and said there was no way he could last long in the party race
Then they laughed and said there was no way he could be a serious contender in any state
Then they laughed and said there was no way he would win in any state
Then they laughed and said there was no way he would be the party nominee
Then they laughed and said there was no way he would be elected president
Then they laughed and said there was no way he won't be impeached
Then they laughed and said there was no way he would win the second term
Then they laughed and said there was no way he'd manage to abolish the 22nd amendment
Then one by one they stopped laughing and started erecting statues and obelisks in his liking at every city square
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Donald Trump: Presumptive GOP nominee; Sanders takes Indiana

These are just my initial reactions.


What the fuck ???????

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/indiana-primary-highlights/
Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee following a decisive victory in the Indiana primary and the decision by Ted Cruz to drop out of the race.
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Adrian Clavijo

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Google is rolling out a new feature to Slides today called Q&A, which has been designed from the ground up to allow speakers and presenters to have an easy way to communicate with viewers. The …
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Why not?
With Sen. Ted Cruz’s departure Tuesday from the GOP presidential race, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is intensifying his push for the #NeverTrump crowd.
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#Kasich will end his presidential bid at a 5pm press conference today #GOP #Elections2016 #Trump #NPRElections
#Kasich will end his presidential bid at a 5pm press conference today #GOP #Elections2016 #Trump #NPRElections · Embedded image. 9:24 AM - 4 May 2016. 1 Retweet. Reply to @NPRElections. Home · Sign up · Log in · Search · About. More like this; Less like this; Cancel. Not on Twitter?
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bye
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Adrian Clavijo

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Out
 
#BREAKING: John Kasich to suspend his campaign for president, senior campaign adviser sayS, VIA @NBCNews http://nbcbay.com/ZCyeUKL
Following Donald Trump's decisive victory in Indiana on Tuesday, Ohio Gov. John Kasich canceled a media availability Wednesday and is to make a statement this evening in his home state. Kasich, 63, who launched...
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Oh my god, this happened and it's a nail bitter.
 
As of today, the second seal has been broken and a rider on a red horse has come forth Donald Trump is essentially the guaranteed Republican nominee for president. Let me give some predictions of what's going to happen next:

(1) People will start to argue harder and harder that Trump isn't really that bad, and he doesn't actually mean all the things that he says. Even while you'll never hear this from his campaign, it'll be a major theme among commentators, especially those tied to the Republican establishment. 

The main thing driving this will be cognitive dissonance: if you believed that the American public had just nominated a not-particularly-crypto-Nazi, then you would have to conclude that the people around you are either evil or fools, and that's not something nice to think about. But if he's not really that bad, then it's OK. The second thing driving this will be the underlying urge of many disaffected (white, working or middle class) people to support him and the things he actually says; if you've got a narrative where it's not really that bad, it's fine to vote for this, then you can feel more comfortable considering it. And the third thing (affecting mostly professional politicians and media heads) will be simple professional party loyalty; the cost of defection away from a nominated candidate, in terms of career and so on, is just too high.

(2) You will hear a strong campaign from the Republican establishment (not Trump) that Clinton is the Devil and must be beaten. They won't be able to put together a clear story of why; to be honest, almost nobody ever has been able to. It's become so reflexive to see her this way that people have forgotten where it started. (That's not to say that Clinton isn't deeply flawed, but none of those flaws have anything to do with the weird conspiracy theories that will be circulating) 

This is mostly a way for the people in the establishment, the ones with the most dissonance to deal with, to focus themselves on saying "not Clinton" so they don't have to spend too much time saying "yes Trump."

It's going to be an incredibly nasty campaign, but that shouldn't surprise anyone.

(Yes, Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee. I know Sanderistas can come up with arguments until the cows come home about how it's still perfectly statistically possible for him to win 64% of the remaining pledged delegates or somehow convince all the superdelegates to join him but... no. There is no way that actually works. Sanders gets to shift the party platform but he has no serious chance of being the nominee)


And if, God forbid, Trump were to be elected? I suspect that we would find that he is quite an honest man after all, at least insofar as he has no incentive to lie. I suspect that his promises about immigrants will quickly become a priority for him, with a certain amount of reality gating. Things we'd actually see:

(1) Punitive taxes and/or seizure of remittances abroad. This would cause massive economic disruptions all over the world (about $125B per year, most of it going to poor communities) and would probably ultimately be moderated in some way, but not before causing tremendous pain and chaos.

(2) Laws demanding strong proof of citizenship to work, and enforcing severe penalties against employers who violate them. These would cause a different kind of chaos, because a good quarter of citizens don't actually have such strong proof. Presumably offices would be set up to help people get that, and deployment of the law would be staged -- but that assistance would be sharply canted towards white communities. The intent, and effect, of the law would be to cause mass unemployment among Latino and Black communities. This would, indeed, cause many to flee the country, but even more to be dropped into extremely dire straits. I have no idea how this would play out.

(3) Laws enforcing Draconian penalties against anyone who helps people without knowing their immigration status. This would run into actual trouble for Trump once it started to affect better-organized churches; the Vatican may actually end up being a major counterforce, and this might have long-term consequences.

(4) Laws restricting employment of legal immigrants in various ways. Not in service industries, but in places where a demonstration of nativism will be politically useful. This will often be used as a negotiating tactic against businesses.

(5) Actual wall-building might start in a symbolic fashion, but the absurd logistics of it would prevent anything other than a flashy display.

Of course, none of this even starts to deal with his plans to institute trade wars with both China and Mexico (two of our three largest trading partners), or the effects that would happen when the leaders of politically savvy rival countries (e.g., China) realize that he can easily be goaded into foolish moves. Or what might happen if someone else (e.g., Kim Jong Un) tried to rattle sabers; I doubt that he has any deep understanding of just why the US hasn't tried to blow up North Korea in the past. (Answer: we could do it, but in the process South Korea would be turned into rubble, and Japan would probably lose a city or two. And it might escalate into a full regional war.)

So even though I anticipate several months of people telling me how he really isn't that bad, and of the curious experience of seeing a politician's supporters get exasperated and angry ("you're not repeating that old lie again!") when I suggest that their candidate might be honest, I don't think that just because he's the nominee, he's suddenly going to change his white sheets stripes.
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Flipping the Republican Vote
 
Mark Salter, who served as chief of staff to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and worked as an adviser on both of McCain’s presidential campaigns, says he’ll be supporting Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump this fall.
While many Republicans are team #NeverTrump, few have actually said they'll support a Democrat instead.
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Adrian's Collections
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Have him in circles
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王憲杰's profile photo
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  • United States
    present
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Currently
West Palm Beach Florida
Previously
New York City - Hong Kong - Hawaii
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Introduction
A Husband, a Father, a Traveler, an Educator, a Student and a Dreamer.

Education
  • Western Governor's University
    Interdisciplinary Studies, present
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Public - 3 months ago
reviewed 3 months ago
This is a gweilo rating so ignore it if you're a HK local. It's an east meets west, fusion restaurant, it's very common in HK and it's one of my biggest pet peeves but this is what locals like to boast about, their modern "Hong Kong culture". What do you get at a hk fusion restaurant. A caesar salad with no chicken option, served in a soup bowl? Overpriced coffee and breakfast with runny scramble eggs. Large plates little tables and awful canton music. Totally not a place for the kids, and the menus selection is very minimal. My suggestion to the owners, forget the breakfast you don't have the space for large meals. Expand your desert and cakes menu. Get a liquor license, and offer a variety of wines. Finally get rid of the canton music, Lounge or ambient music is good enough.
• • •
Public - 3 months ago
reviewed 3 months ago
It's crap, just like in America
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
4 reviews
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I love PNC, they're one of the few banks that don't charge you for free checking. The staff at any location are really nice, especially this branch. Always service with a smile, and short lines.
Public - 5 months ago
reviewed 5 months ago