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Adrian Clavijo
Works at United States
Attends Western Governor's University
Lives in West Palm Beach Florida
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Adrian Clavijo

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This is a pretty good guess
Reacting to the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, aged 79, MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow said people making predictions of how President Obama will handle the vacancy will be "embarrassed." "This is kind of as big a jolt as we can get," Maddow said about Scalia's death and the vacancy left behind. "I think anybody who's going to predict exactly what's going to happen here is going to be embarrassed by those predictions just within ...
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Adrian Clavijo

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Justice Antonin Scalia's death broke with seismic force over Washington Saturday, setting up a monumental election year battle over whomever President Barack Obama chooses to succeed him with a nomination that could tilt the Supreme Court toward liberals.
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that didn't take long
It may not be possible for Obama to fill vacancy created by Justice Scalia's death
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After Scalia: What Next?

So many people have asked me about the potential consequences of Justice Scalia's death in the minutes since I shared the last post that I realized that OK, I probably do need to write something about this. 

The most immediate consequence is that there are only eight justices on the Supreme Court, which raises the probability of a tie on a case considerably. (Ties can also happen when one member of the Court needs to recuse him or herself, but that generally only happens with fairly new justices who may have worked on a case prior to joining the Court) When there's a tie, this has the effect of affirming whatever the lower court decided, without creating any new precedents. (I don't actually know what would happen in those few cases for which the Supreme Court has original jurisdiction, rather than hearing an appeal)

But the most significant consequence is, of course, political. Scalia was the ideological leader of the conservative wing of the Supreme Court; his absence could have significant effects on cases in the near future, including the coming major abortion case Whole Women's Health v. Cole.

It also means that the stakes for the election have gone up tremendously. Obama could easily nominate someone for the Court, but in the current political climate, the odds of anyone he nominates being confirmed by the Senate are, to put it mildly, not great. This means that we're likely to have an eight-justice court until 2017 at the earliest, for a full year. (The longest it's ever taken to appoint a justice in the past has been 125 days, for Justice Brandeis back in 1916)

It means that the next President is likely to appoint even more justices than earlier expected. Justice Ginsburg is widely seen as likely to retire within the next President's term (she's currently 82), and two other justices (Kennedy and Breyer) are in their seventies. For comparison, each of the past four presidents has appointed two justices during an eight-year term.

I anticipate a tremendous amount of political rancor in the next few weeks triggered by Scalia's death, and that "social issues" will suddenly take on a much stronger role in the 2016 election as a result. This is likely to sharply increase turnout for candidates like Clinton, Sanders, and Cruz, at the expense of less socially-ideological candidates like Trump, as bases with strong feelings about Supreme Court nominations come out in much sharper numbers. Importantly, it's likely to erase any effect of internecine tensions among Democrats during the primary season on general election turnout.

So long as we're considering tactics, I should also point out a consequence of the increased risk of court ties. Frequently, when highly constitutionally-sensitive cases come before courts, all parties are aware from the beginning that the decisions of the intermediate courts are likely to inform the Supreme Court decision, but that this is where the ultimate decision will likely be made. In the new situation, any pending cases where it was already likely that there would be a 5-4 split suddenly have to contend with the real risk that whatever the appeals court says will be the final word. That changes legal tactics tremendously, and could greatly increase the chance that various cases will either settle, or find some other way to delay themselves until there's a new Court in place. Certainly, it makes 2016 a dubious time for anyone to try to advance any "test cases" meant to establish clear precedents on important issues.

As far as who the next nominee will be? It's awfully hard to guess, and I don't know nearly enough sitting judges to make predictions. I can think of a few that I would seriously consider (Kozinski and Posner being the most obvious), but that list clearly reflects my own selection bias: a good search would go deep into the space of potential candidates, looking for people with a broader set of backgrounds. It's hard to underestimate the importance of diversity of experience on the Court: one justice who has a deep understanding of what's at stake in a particular case can have a profound impact on the quality of the decisions made.

(And as for my opinions of Justice Scalia's jurisprudence and his influence on the Court, and how future justices might differ? I'm going to leave that be for today.)
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The current Supreme Court is populated with aging justices, four of whom are older than 75 and five of whom have served on the court for more than 20 years. The oldest justices include two conservatives - Antonin Scalia, 79 and Anthony Kennedy, 79 - and two liberals - Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 82, and Stephen Breyer, 77.

Following the pattern of the past three presidents, whoever wins the White House should have the opportunity to appoint at least two replacements for current justices who retire in the coming years. There is a good chance that at least one conservative and one liberal will retire, giving the new president the opportunity to rebalance the court by appointing two justices of the same political persuasion.
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His death will set off a firestorm of news articles, presidential debate topics and analysis over what a democratic supreme court would mean for America.
The conservative icon, known for his intellect, wit and biting opinions, had a huge impact on the high court.
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Adrian Clavijo

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The justice's passing roils the presidential campaign and could leave the high court deadlocked until 2017. Will the Senate even consider a replacement nominated by President Obama?
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Justice Antonin Scalia, Who Led a Conservative Renaissance on the Supreme Court, Is Dead at 79 http://nyti.ms/1QenJDn
Justice Scalia, whose legal theories, vivid writing and outsize personality made him a conservative leader, was found dead on Saturday in Texas.
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Cruz Says No New Justice Under Obama http://thebea.st/20vzQkZ
Wants the next president to appoint replacement.
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This is going to set up an unbelievable battle in the Senate. I wonder if Republicans will even make a pretense of seriously considering whoever President Obama nominates?

In the meantime, the court is split 4-4 between conservatives and liberals. So even if Republicans refuse to confirm a new justice, Obama's laws and executive orders are safe for another year in any cases where the opinion hasn't yet been finalized. You can't overturn an action on a 4-4 vote. This means that EPA's carbon rules are probably safe. Ditto for Obama's immigration executive order. Union shops in the public sector are probably safe. Abortion restrictions probably won't go anywhere. One-person-one-vote is probably safe.

Either way, this is now the most important issue in the presidential campaign. Appointing Supreme Court justices has always been one of the biggest reasons to care about who wins in November, but it's stayed mostly under the radar until now. No longer. Both sides will go ballistic over this, and the Supreme Court will suddenly seem like the most vital presidential power ever. If you thought things were getting nasty before this, just wait. You ain't seen nothing yet.

POSTSCRIPT: The last time a justice was confirmed during an election year was Anthony Kennedy in 1988. However, the stakes weren't as big. He was a conservative replacing a conservative, and didn't change the balance of the court much. Clarence Thomas was confirmed in late 1991, shortly before an election year, but we all know how that went. Among other things, he was replacing William Brennan, a very liberal justice, and his confirmation changed the balance of the court considerably.
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Have him in circles
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  • United States
    present
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West Palm Beach Florida
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New York City - Hong Kong - Hawaii
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A Husband, a Father, a Traveler, an Educator, a Student and a Dreamer.

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  • Western Governor's University
    Interdisciplinary Studies, present
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Male
Public - 2 weeks ago
reviewed 2 weeks ago
This is a gweilo rating so ignore it if you're a HK local. It's an east meets west, fusion restaurant, it's very common in HK and it's one of my biggest pet peeves but this is what locals like to boast about, their modern "Hong Kong culture". What do you get at a hk fusion restaurant. A caesar salad with no chicken option, served in a soup bowl? Overpriced coffee and breakfast with runny scramble eggs. Large plates little tables and awful canton music. Totally not a place for the kids, and the menus selection is very minimal. My suggestion to the owners, forget the breakfast you don't have the space for large meals. Expand your desert and cakes menu. Get a liquor license, and offer a variety of wines. Finally get rid of the canton music, Lounge or ambient music is good enough.
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Public - 2 weeks ago
reviewed 2 weeks ago
It's crap, just like in America
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
4 reviews
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I love PNC, they're one of the few banks that don't charge you for free checking. The staff at any location are really nice, especially this branch. Always service with a smile, and short lines.
Public - 2 months ago
reviewed 2 months ago